Brent Oil Prediction 2018

Oil prices initially were supported by supply-side factors such as the conflict in Iraq and US-Iran tensions which sparked discussions of a potential drop in global supply. World oil prices are growing on the last trading day of the year on the data of the U.S. Energy Department about the weekly decline in the volume of stocks of raw materials.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $60.21 a barrel, up 0.6 percent from their last close, after hitting a June 2015 high of $60.32 earlier in the day, Brent crude futures - the international benchmark - were also up, rising 0.7 percent to $66.61 a barrel. Brent broke through $67 earlier this week for the first time since May 2015, according to Reuters.
The United States crude futures newly rose 20 cents, or 0.35%, to $57.56 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent, the global benchmark, rose 64 cents, or 1.01%, to $64.04 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe.
Brent crude oil for this year and next and boosted its U.S. production view for 2018. The United States Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday higher its price forecasts on West Texas Intermediate. In its monthly energy outlook report, the government agency forecast WTI prices at $49.69 a barrel for this year, up 1.7% from its September forecast. For 2018, it forecast $50.57-up 2% from the former outlook. The EIA also upped its 2017 forecast on Brent crude by 2.7% to $52.43 and its 2018 outlook by 4.8% to $54.07. It diffidently lowered its U.S. crude manufacture view to 9.24 million barrels per day this year but elevated its 2018 output view by 0.8% to 9.92 million barrels a day. November WTI crude CLX7, +0.00% traded at $50.67 a barrel, down 0.5%. December Brent crude UK: lcoz7 fell 0.6% to $56.26 a barrel.

Comments (18)

Jan 3, 2018 - 12:32am
WSO Monkey Bot, what's your opinion? Comment below:

Hi radha00027, check out these resources:

  • 2015 Predictions- a collection of major firms' predictions calling for nearly 3.5% global GDP, lower oil, continued USD strength, and rising rates Bill Gross is ... calling for the end of the bull market (again) Bob Doll making his 10 predictions again... my favorite are ... has an infographic with all of the major strategists' predictions UBS says we'll have ...
  • Profiting from Potential Narrowing of Brent/WTI Spread affect Brent but not WTI but are less certain about the overall demand outlook for oil, how would you ... If you think the prices of Brent/WT are going to converge due to events in the Middle East that ... express this in a trade? I imagine it would be some way of going long Brent/short WTI to hedge out the ...
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  • Fall Predictions Yield 3) Crude Oil 4) Random thought/prediction Mine are as follows: 1) 1200 2) 4.00% 3) $80 4) The best ... So Labor Day seems like a good time to take stock of where we're at and make some predictions ... invloved put down ur prediction for wher we will be 12/31/2009 on the following: 1) S&P 500 2) 10 Year ...
  • More suggestions...

Maybe one of our professional members will share their wisdom: @Zachary-Butler" Rafiul gudsgis

You're welcome.

Jan 3, 2018 - 12:33am
opaquet, what's your opinion? Comment below:

Where is Oil Going? (Originally Posted: 10/16/2017)

Oil prices have been fluctuating between $40 dollars and $60 for the past year. It is unclear where it will be going in the near future. Some analysts expect it to fall lower. According to this article

In order to minimize price fluctuations on foreign markets we have prepared a budget which is based on a price of forty dollars a barrel. I think that this is a fairly considered and conservative price, which has been factored in for the next three years," Siluanov told CNBC in a TV interview on Friday.

Oil is a market determined by a lot of players. There are concerns that the price will drop, but it usually takes more than a few people for the price to drop. My question to you guys where will the price of Oil go and how do you plan to trade it or will you stay out of trading it?

  • 2
Jan 3, 2018 - 12:34am
Bayoumonkey, what's your opinion? Comment below:

Either 10 years for the market to balance. Or one global event where we hit 120 a barrel. Who knows? Certainly not me. I feel like it's very hard to talk about these types of things in a meaningful way as a student with minimal knowledge. Industry experts, how can we talk about this without looking silly? genuinely curious.

“The only thing I know is that I know nothing, and i am no quite sure that i know that.” Socrates
Jan 3, 2018 - 12:35am
papertiger, what's your opinion? Comment below:

Rule no.1 of life

Never, ever ever try to predict the price of a commodity. Coal, Iron Ore, steel.

Venezuela's PDVSA could go bust next week and the market can overreact. Iran might join North Korea in a warfest and the US could places sanctions on purchases of Iranian crude and that can cause a ripple effect.

There are commodities, then there's crude oil. Unless you make every cent of your livelihood in this field I'd find it silly to even postulate.

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Jan 3, 2018 - 12:39am
FuturesOrHistory, what's your opinion? Comment below:

Crude Oil Futures, where next? (Originally Posted: 11/21/2014)

I have been trading oil futures at an oil company for a few years, following a background in crude oil market analysis; supply and demand tracking etc. I am looking to move from physical oil trading to a role where I can employ my market knowledge and trading ability. However I am fully aware that the major banks are moving away from commodity trading, but I would appreciate some help in narrowing my search to a particular sector. Grateful for comments from people who are or have been in a similar situation or those who can see a fit for the above mentioned experience. Thanks

Jan 3, 2018 - 12:42am
Sswag, what's your opinion? Comment below:

Thoughts on oil futures (Originally Posted: 03/27/2015)

I think oil has reached its bottom price point. Due to low prices, domestic oil production has slowed, the economy has improved and oil demand will increase for the summer. I just added USO to my portfolio. What are your thoughts on oil futures?

Jan 3, 2018 - 12:43am
cigarEngineer, what's your opinion? Comment below:

As long as CapEx languishes, durable goods orders are decreasing, and disposable income is flat, oil will not go appreciably higher no matter how negative interest rates go. There is no compelling case for economic renaissance that would help commodities go higher. Plus you have USD strength because EU and Japan are printing money, further depressing nominal prices.

Best Response
Jan 3, 2018 - 12:44am
EnergyHOU, what's your opinion? Comment below:

Not sure where you're getting your facts from but essentially everything you said is incorrect.

On the domestic front, although the rig count has fallen dramatically, production has not "slowed". The majority of the cuts in the count are of vertical and directional rigs which are low yield compared to the powerful horizontals. We've actually seen some increases in ouput out of the Bakken and Permian. On the international front it's almost worse. OPEC has been steadily pushing output and has absolutely zero intention of changing that.

What you're not accounting for is a) storage and b) refinery maintenance season. Storage is rising dramatically and getting nearer than ever before to capacity and refinery maintenance must go absolutely perfectly without any hiccups in order for us to avoid hitting that capacity before the summer even begins.

Also be careful with structured products like USO, watch out for the contango effect. The roll yields on that product are absolutely absurd right now. Decay is enormous.

Ultimately, if you're buying here with intention to hold for 2 years then whatever, it doesn't matter, this is essentially the "bottom" for you, but if you're trying to be more proactive with it, this isn't the spot IMO.

Jan 3, 2018 - 12:45am
monkeybusiness23, what's your opinion? Comment below:

Where the Price of Oil is Headed (Originally Posted: 05/04/2015)

Crude Oil prices dropped rapidly during March, and while prices started to recover in April, this growth will likely not be sustained. Since the beginning of May, prices have declined. Oil drilling rigs in the US have lessened in quantity for the 21st straight week, reaching their lowest level since Fall 2010. The number of rigs commonly serves as a measure of activity in the oil industry, and according to The Wall Street Journal, analysts project this decline to slow down. In the unlikely event that it speeds up, prices may rise. Furthermore, 1-2 million barrels of oil a day is what analysts estimate to be the amount that supply exceeds demand. This surplus should continue to grow as Saudi Arabia recently declared that it will continue to pump oil at high levels. An oversupply of oil in the market will make it easier to attain, thus driving prices down. China, the second largest oil consumer experienced an increase in oil demand during Q1, but will likely cut back on consumption due to the strengthening of the dollar. Since oil is priced in dollars, a stronger dollar equates to more expensive oil for foreign buyers. The US dollar index future has increased approximately 20% over the last 3 years, and should continue to strengthen provided the Euro continues its rally. This will contribute to a decrease in foreign demand for oil. With the increase in supply, all signs point to another stretch of declining oil prices.

Jan 3, 2018 - 12:47am
ArcherVice, what's your opinion? Comment below:

That's not a bet I'd take, the economics (or supply/demand for that matter) of sub $50 bbl oil won't play. There just isn't enough supply that can be sold sub $50 to keep prices down there for long, IMHO. With that being said, I think there will be a new normal in energy markets.

Jan 3, 2018 - 12:49am
hedgetrader, what's your opinion? Comment below:

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