Byron Wien's 2011 Predictions

“ALSO RANS”

    11.         While Afghanistan and Iraq cool down as trouble spots, Pakistan and North Korea flare up. The former continues to be a troublesome breeding ground for terrorists and the latter initiates further hostile attacks on South Korea. China does not become involved in a major way and the international community seems helpless.

    12.         The broad international sanctions on Iran finally begin to work. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad enters into negotiations to scale back the country’s nuclear weapons development program in exchange for financial <span class='keyword_link'><a href="/resources/skills/economics/foreign-investment">aid and foreign investment</a></span>. Pressure from the country’s youth to provide more economic opportunity is the key factor in the change in policy. Talk about bombing by Israel or the U.S. subsides.

    13.         Rising interest rates and a strong economy allow the dollar to strengthen against the euro and the yen. Although the European financial crisis abates as austerity programs and higher taxes are put in place and Japan avoids falling back into recession, America becomes the developed market of choice for global investors.

    14.         Sarah Palin announces she will seek the Republican nomination for President amidst the cheers of Tea Party supporters. More moderate Republicans fear her candidacy will diminish the chances of their party winning in 2012 and try to blunt her efforts. Rick Perry, governor of Texas becomes a contender. Mike <span class='keyword_link'><a href="/resources/data/bloomberg">Bloomberg</a></span> is mentioned. On the Democratic side, liberals feel Obama has betrayed them and desperately try to find a challenger. With the economy improving the prospect of a second term for Obama becomes more likely.

    15.         The Russian government decides it is the laggard of the <span class='keyword_link'><a href="/resources/skills/economics/emerging-markets">emerging markets</a></span> and steps up its efforts to become more investor friendly. The Kremlin agrees to further nuclear weapons reduction and provides assurance to companies willing to invest there that the rule of law will prevail. The Russian equity market soars.

    16.         Laws related to marijuana usage are liberalized in more states. Recognizing that the drug may not be addictive, the public’s attitudes have evolved over the last thirty years, and this, along with a desire to alleviate the over-crowding of jails, causes state legislatures to take a more liberal position. Drug abuse groups are outraged.

    17.         Infrastructure problems in the United State become serious. New York subways are inoperative for days as a result of an electrical problem in the signal system. Gridlock snarls Los Angeles freeways, and to encourage cooperative commuting, high-occupancy vehicles are required to <span class="keyword_link"><a href="//www.wallstreetoasis.com/finance-dictionary/what-is-carry">carry</a></span> three or more people. State and local governments complain they lack the funds to deal with the problems and Washington refuses to help.

    18.         A major state fails to pay interest on a municipal bond issue because of a lack of funds, causing havoc in the municipal bond market.

    19.         In spite of fears of tenth anniversary terrorist attacks, 9/11/11 becomes a peaceful non-event because of excellent intelligence and surveillance.

    20.         While climate change activists remain shrill, the issue recedes in importance in the United States. Cold weather prevails during the winter and the summer heat is not oppressive. Support increases for a broader use of natural gas by utilities and public transportation and its price rises to $6.00 per mcf. In Europe and Asia however, environmental initiatives continue to move ahead. 

You can find the full list here guys:

http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20110103005612/en/Byron-Wien-Anno…

Feeling pretty smart being short munis.

Have to say that I'm a little confused though - he seems to be predicting increased deficits and trouble for the dollar, failing infrastructure, and municipal bond default, higher commodity prices, slowing Chinese economy. So far so good....but doesn't this affect US GDP and the equity markets? There's a disconnect in there somewhere. I feel that all of your predictions have to sync up unless you sprinkle in a few caveats.

I really like the general direction in most of these predictions with a few caveats. 1. 5% real GDP growth is pretty beastly, especially if yields are at 5%. 2. The housing prediction is probably 50/50 at best, I think the market overshooting is a more likely scenario. 3. The Dems looking for an alternative to Obama? Not in a million years. 4. Fingers crossed on the MJ issue. 5. The NY subway prediction is way too specific, but that's likely to happen somewhere this year (maybe just a few lines or something). 6. $6 natty? Maybe because the winter turns beastly cold but a secular increase in demand could be a long time in the making.

You know.... I'm going to be the first to say I'm going to take all of Weins predictions, and short them all.

Wein's track record for 2010 - 0/10. I doubt he'll do much better in 2011, going 1/10 if that. Now, I realize that these predictions are made at the start of the year, but still, his calls were so far off base that it wasn't even funny...

Consider that before you look at his suggestions and take them all with a great of salt.

Wow he batted 0 for 10 on his 2010 predictions! Thanks for linking back to last year's post!

I'd like to see some monkeys put their balls on the line with year end predictions. Didn't we do this last year? S+P500? Oil? 10yr bond?

haha, this moron was wrong on every single prediction in 2010...

I guess he isnt a moron, but its pretty stupid to put on paper definitive things that will happen in 365 days worth of time...it could all change tomorrow.

Stupid, maybe. It draws attention to him and Blackstone, gets people talking. I wouldn't want to be held to predictions but I also don't have the cred that he has either.

I'd rather see Tony James' predictions. Interesting they have their advisory head, rather than any of their different asset managers.

By all means have those outlooks going into the year, but its not the same as putting a position on...where you can manage the risk and change your mind....and still come out profitable. Once those statements are made you are locked in...this guy didnt make his money trading on a daily basis clearly.