Creating More Panic? US Markets Doomed?
USA are likely to loss more from coronavirus than any other country. Stores/Airlines/Shows shutdown likely to impact service industries,which account for a big portion of US GDP. US is a large oil producer while Asia is big importer that benefit from oil plunge.
Hedge funds are good at creating panic. And it has never been so easy to spread panic and sell off like now.
Thanks to the horrible and terrible crisis management of Europe and US, it has never been easier to create panic. In UK, government already told people being prepared to “lose their loved ones before their time”. In US, you still don’t see people test temperature at building entrance.
Most of people hold stocks in their 401k, and they suffered big. Since it is so easy to create panic, hedge funds like to hit market even more often, especially when government can’t give what they want. The big loss of 401k for US families likely to cause social unrest.
China already won the coronavirus battle as daily new increase numbers are decreasing. Don’t let China win the economic war. If US market crash, Chinese can buy US companies at a cheap price. At that time, hard to say whether or not Chinese companies will be among biggest holder of “American Airlines” or “Bank of America “.Stock markets are more panic in US and Europe thanks to the bad government crisis management. As Chinese economy recovering, US economy can get harder. Don’t let USA get screwed.
Wall Street will create more market crash in next 8 weeks, after that, they will help foreign investors buy US asset a cheap price. This virus war can weak European economy further hit US economy hard while helping Asia rise and helping China lead global economy.
Factors that can be used to create more panic in markets: In term of likelihood * Coronavirus infected numbers rise 10 fold * Senior government executives get infected badly * Fed disappointed markets * Big companies bankrupt (though based on CDS spread implied probability not so much) * Oil go below twenty
Factors that can boom market In term of likelihood * Fed cut surprised investors (cut interest rate to zero) * New vaccine invented (China already had some trials) * China Q1 economy number beat investor expectation * Oil price back to normal * More tax cut
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