FX Trade Idea
hi all,
after yesterdays disappointing NFP numbers, which currency pair would you focus on over the next weeks?
cheers
claas
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USDNOK? In terms of USDCHF, I think the NFP numbers were just a bump in the road for some appreciation of the USD vs. the CHF..Franc is overbought right now imo
I agree that CHF might be overbought! However, why do you think there is room for appreciation? US debt, end of QE2, NFP numbers?
Shrug
Hey man, sorry it took me so long to get back to you - I've been busy shorting the FTSE MIB. lol sigh, I wish
I don't really know too much about FX/trading, I'm just a college student and interning in IBD this summer (should have gone for trading tho, oh well). I think there is room for appreciation vs. the swiss franc because even though the fundamentals for the USD may be weak, the CHF is getting so overvalued it's ridiculous. what we've seen over the last few months is that whenever bad news came out of the EU, the CHF would rally against both the USD and the EUR. however, now that Italy is kind of imploding, the CHF/EUR is going through the roof but the CHF/USD remains largely stable. I think this will continue to be the case in the short-medium term. Plus, there is no way the swiss economy can continue the way it did with the CHF/EUR at 1.16... the CHF is considered a safe haven and a good way to play the end of the Eurozone, but the truth is that the Swiss economy is very dependent on the EU through exports. So I don't think the franc is as safe as people think it is.
what's your take?
def short the chf, buy the euro..The market's overreating..
LOL! noob
I disagree, the market is incredibly fearful, I'd be wary about being long eurchf spot unless you're willing to take some big losses.
hey maybe yankeez is the proxy for SNB! lol :)
As today is the 4th Thursday in November, the US is celebrating Thanksgiving Day. American exchanges are closed today and will close early on Friday. Volumes are thin on the market, so from our current price of 1.1829, we could move up to 50 pips in either direction. Considering that traders are buying euros on the crosses and that markets are paying less attention to the German coalition talks, I’m predicting a test of the 112th degree followed by a rebound towards the lower boundary of the B-B channel. When the crosses are rising, buyers don’t give up so easily.
If markets do decide to pay attention to Germany, I’d like to see the price return to the LB balance line, which currently runs through 1.1763.
Hi all, I`m from Russia and we are going to visit New-York in the beginning of December. Is there any special place (bar) that quants from Wall Street usually go to? We are looking for high-frequency trading quants. Also I need a guy to be in contact with. I really-really need your help, pleeeeeease. Thanks in advance))))
It depends on what you're looking for - volatility, a well defined trend, a tech trigger point such as MACD/RSI divergence, an impending political event that could cause a swing ...?
Josesv makes a good point about the thin volumes. Market moves on thin volumes are often good opportunities to enter a trade you've been waiting to take. So, for example, if you were waiting to take a short term counter-trend position on the S&P, Friday would have been a good day for a short (with a tight stop).
Thanks a lot for your response. I will write all details later
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