How does changing the tax rate affect the multiples a company is trading at?

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14 Comments
 

Is no one considering the impact to MEV that would decrease TEV due to lower net earnings > lower earnings per share and in theory, that should lower price per share? So higher taxes does not affect the operational metric but on the TEV side wouldn't it eat away at equity investor earnings, making market equity less valuable and decreasing the overall TEV multiple?

 
Most Helpful

The right approach is to ask for more clarification before answering. The mechanical impact of a change in tax rate is well covered above (in absence of additional information), but don't see that as being representative of what actually plays out in the real world. A few other elements to consider:

  • What's the time period of the tax-affected metric (LTM or forward)? When does the change in tax rate kick in? These will all have implications on whether the event will impact a company's multiple 
  •  Is the change in tax rate guided to the market in advance (i.e. broad change in policy from government)? If the case, you'd expected to see immediate multiple compression as public market investors are quicker to price in events, versus brokers adjusting their EPS / FCF forecasts (i.e. if looking at consensus forward multiples). However, this normalizes fairly quickly. When the actual impact materializes, the multiple will have already priced / factored this in (both from investors and brokers).
  • If the tax rate change is specific to the company and a "surprise" to the market, a few potential outcomes:
    • Multiple compression expected to occur immediately post announcement - this is generally moreso due to market psychology as investors haven't had the opportunity to fully digest the financial impact of the new tax rate, so knee-jerk reaction is to sell
    • Multiple stays constant - i.e. market prices in perfectly the revision to equity value vis-a-vis financial impact on the company's earnings
    • Multiple goes up - Most unlikely outcome from my perspective. Potential explanation is public investors have a less pessimistic view on impact vs. brokers   

Note that the points above assumes that tax rates go up (worse for equity investors), and forward consensus estimates. The overarching point is ignoring the impact on equity value and focusing only on earnings / FCF effectively means you're ignoring half the equation, and IMO that doesn't prove to me that the interviewee truly understands the concept at its core.

 

Where did he say that what he wrote was what OP should respond with in an interview? He said “should ask for further clarification” and “these are other potential things to consider”. My read was he was laying out the various potential alternatives depending on what information is provided

 

Associate 3 in IB - Cov:

lol, if your goal is to come across as a tool with a low EQ, this is the right approach. You're technically answering the question literally in your response, but this completely misses the point of what the interviewer is actually asking

Bonehead MBA associate 😂😂 dur dur I read in 400 biws tax go up earnings go down so multiple go up 😂😂😂

 
Funniest
StreetofBulls

The right approach is to ask for more clarification before answering. The mechanical impact of a change in tax rate is well covered above (in absence of additional information), but don't see that as being representative of what actually plays out in the real world. A few other elements to consider:

  • What's the time period of the tax-affected metric (LTM or forward)? When does the change in tax rate kick in? These will all have implications on whether the event will impact a company's multiple 
  •  Is the change in tax rate guided to the market in advance (i.e. broad change in policy from government)? If the case, you'd expected to see immediate multiple compression as public market investors are quicker to price in events, versus brokers adjusting their EPS / FCF forecasts (i.e. if looking at consensus forward multiples). However, this normalizes fairly quickly. When the actual impact materializes, the multiple will have already priced / factored this in (both from investors and brokers).
  • If the tax rate change is specific to the company and a "surprise" to the market, a few potential outcomes:
    • Multiple compression expected to occur immediately post announcement - this is generally moreso due to market psychology as investors haven't had the opportunity to fully digest the financial impact of the new tax rate, so knee-jerk reaction is to sell
    • Multiple stays constant - i.e. market prices in perfectly the revision to equity value vis-a-vis financial impact on the company's earnings
    • Multiple goes up - Most unlikely outcome from my perspective. Potential explanation is public investors have a less pessimistic view on impact vs. brokers   

Note that the points above assumes that tax rates go up (worse for equity investors), and forward consensus estimates. The overarching point is ignoring the impact on equity value and focusing only on earnings / FCF effectively means you're ignoring half the equation, and IMO that doesn't prove to me that the interviewee truly understands the concept at its core.

If you gave this answer in an interview I would immediately ding you

If you tell me this at work I would immediately request to not having to work with you again 

 

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