how to get exposure to bonds getting destroyed in coming months ?
Any thoughts? Its kinda obvious rates are going to rise soon what is your opinion?
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Short treasuries or Eurodollar contracts.
Out of curiosity, what do you think makes it so obvious that rates are gonna rise in the "next few months"?
Gold is in sync with equities
look at the graphs in these 4 charts
http://www.bullnotbull.com/archive/gold1980.html Gold Chart http://www.frbsf.org/education/activities/drecon/2003/0301a.jpg inflation http://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.tradersnarrative.com/wp-… dow chart
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:DJIA_historical_graph_to_jan09_%28log…
in 80s
take 2007 + 2 same sceneraio as 1980 + 2 it is obvious the fed is going to create a self made recession coming up
nm tbt
Ill make you a market. Fed wont raise rates untill '11
oct nov dec 3 months till 2011
you are prob right feenans i'm not saying its going to raise rates next week or anything but the fed keeps buying bonds they can't buy em in this quantity forever and the united states debt is sky rocketing and obama wants more stimulus it is only a matter of time you may be right though 2011 maybe mid year ?
whats your frame?
I'd say second half eleven earliest. In principle though I agree in the long term bonds will be an underperfoming asset
If ur gonna go ETFs make sure not to buy leveraged shorts, you'll get destroyed by interday volatility
i'm thinking the following is going to happen
1 fed does a economic reset 2 keep rates low while more people get laid off
3 china stops buying treasuries due to currency debacle in senate raising the rate demanded 4. more spending by obambum
still trying to figure out when will be a good time to short >
ultra short or bust
I dont know if you are aware, but just in case http://seekingalpha.com/article/35789-the-case-against-leveraged-etfs
feenans yea i know already read that morningstar ;p
http://www.morningstar.com/solutions/ETFSolutions.aspx?docid=291492
wonder which banks have a big treasury portfolio
I have decided I will keep my eyes on TLT and my short button
haha...."its obvious"...right...
soon = 6-9 monthz
YESSSSSSSSSSS i hope china dumps treasuries kamikaze style soon TLT you shall be at zero
http://thehill.com/homenews/house/121757-74-gop-members-defect-as-china…
BURN BABY BURN http://www.google.com/finance?client=ob&q=NYSE:TLT
bump
why would you say that rates are going to go up when the fed is discussing QE2? take a look at Japan for the last twenty years... they thought rates would eventually go up there and they have been stuck
i don't mean fed rates i mean rates on government debt now
rates arent going to move unless unemployment comes down
the federal reserve can only do so much buying before hyperinflation happens face it treasury yields are going up up up
The market can stay irrational far longer than you can stay solvent.
what do you mean look at what happend to yield on the debt it is costing the govt more and more on its debt only a matter of time till yields go up big time regardless of where rates it i mean come on even if it is just the fed buying the bills it isn't enough to sustain the current yield levels
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