What to look for when bond is trading down?

New to distressed investing and I was asked this during an interview.

What are the type of things you would look more into if a bond is trading down and you are considering if you should buy or not?

I would really appreciate the help!

 
Most Helpful

I don’t work in distressed debt, I work in rates (Analyst 2 and actively managing risk in derivatives book), but this is how I would think about it.

  1. Relative value. How does the bond look on regression vs other bonds. Is it richer or cheaper. If everything got cheaper by the same amount is that bond really cheap?
  1. Historical standards. Is this level really cheap by historical standard or it really isn’t. How does the level compare versus 10 day, 30 day, 60 day average and so forth.
  1. What’s the flow. What structurally is getting this bond hit down? Is that program over or will it persist.

These are just but a few areas I would start with.

 

No offence but 2nd point us simply irrelevant in distressed and 1st point is relevant only in credit L/S HF where relval is traded but irrelevant in a value-oriented distressed strategy.

For the poster: the interviewer probably wanted to hear that (1) you distinguish between idiosyncratic and systemic reasons leading that security to trade down and that (2) you compare trading levels vs recovery value (both asset-based / liquidation and as going concern).

 

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