A Few Observations on Investment Banking Exit Opportunities

I see a lot of high school/college kids providing advice and "insight" into how firms place, how people should think about exit opps, what groups are best, etc.

An Experienced Review of IB Exit Opps

This has resulted in a lot of misinformation on this site and I hope to remedy this with this detailed post. A few points:

Group Placement

If you're at a bulge bracket or elite boutique (pretty much any office of any BB or EB) then you will have access to top exits. For those of you at MMs/lower MMs/regional boutiques...sorry, I don't have anything encouraging to say to you. But lower bulge bracket bankers get hit up by headhunters about opportunities at KKR, Warburg Pincus, etc. The reason they don't seem to place into those firms? They don't do well in interviews. At the end of the day, super smart and polished analysts do not go to Barclays or DB, they go to GS or Evercore. That drives exits more than the brand on the door.

Boutiques Investment Banks & Private Equity

Yes, this includes Centerview, which somehow has a reputation for placing poorly. And I would be very, very surprised if PJT analysts placed poorly even though they're a "new firm." Buyside firms want to hire smart, cool people. Do you really think that headhunters are going to say to themselves "meh, I know the kids at PJT are smart but it's a new firm so I'm just going to ignore them"? Or "oh yeah, Centerview is retention focused so that 21 year old kid chose the firm definitely with the intention of making partner. I might as well not even try."??? CVP has placed analysts into plenty of top firms, and PJT will do the same. Best way to judge a firm's exits is to look at the people they hire. Are they smart? Then they will place fine.

Its also important to note that school and GPA matter when it comes to exit opps.

Deal Flow and Experience Matters

If you have some cool deals to talk about, you will go much further than a kid who doesn't have anything to say. Having said that, MF recruiting is so ridiculously early these days that you may be able to get away with having almost no deals (or only confidential ones) on your resume, but make sure you have things to talk about (analyses you've done, how you've thought about things, etc.)

Geography in Exit Opp Placements

It's very difficult to go from SF/LA to NY. Trust me, I've tried. I think it's easier to go the other way, but you will get looks primarily from regional firms (GS SF tends to place into SF offices, etc.) Everybody knows this to some extent but I'm just reinforcing that it's super important.

Culture is More Important Than Exit Opps

Culture is INCREDIBLY important. You don't have to give up your life for two years in order to get a good exit. Say you get two offers - one from BAML LA, and one from Moelis LA. You love the people at BAML, you hate the people at MoCo. You'd be stupid to take BAML right? Moelis LA is amazing right? Don't be a moron - just take BAML. It's not one or the other - if you do well at BAML and prep well enough for interviews, you will place fine. And you will be a much happier person at the end of the line.

Interview Prep is Critical for PE Interviews

Seriously. Some top candidates are complete morons across the table when they're talking about their experience. And PE interviews, honestly, require the intellect of a mentally challenged housefly. Just memorize deal metrics, practice your modeling, and be cool (don't spaz out). You'll do fine.

Pick an Industry Group You Care About

Unfortunately, for reasons I still can't understand, the industry group you get placed into right out of undergrad has tremendous influence on the group you'll get placed into after your analyst years. I get the intuition and rationale behind HC PE firms wanting to hire HC bankers, but honestly two years of analyst experience builds up very little expertise or specialization. Regardless, if you hate technology, don't try to go into a technology group just because they tend to place well.

Furthermore, you should have a clear focus and specialty when recruiting and focus on those opportunities.

Consider Staying in IBanking

Take your first few months as a trial to see whether or not you can see yourself going on until you make MD. Do it with the understanding that 1) analyst/associate years eventually end, 2) the money in banking is as good as (if not better than) the vast majority of career track exits, especially on a risk-adjusted basis, and 3) you can find plenty of exits as an associate or higher, although they tend to be corporate roles until you can start adding value with relationships as a more senior banker.

I'm sure angry high schoolers will want to say I'm wrong about all of the above, but whatever I'm over it.

Mod Note (Andy): Best of 2016, this post ranks #25 for the past year

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Thanks for posting. Would you mind sharing your observations on exit opps for Associates and VPs?

I enjoy working in IB and am happy to do it for a good few years. Larger banks are also great for internal moves to different geographies so it makes sense for me to stick in IB for a while as I'm looking to move abroad, at least semi-permanently.

However I don't see myself in an origination role at a bank (ie AD or above). I'd much rather move into VC/HF/PE after 5-7 years in banking if I'm going to be sourcing deals.

 
Best Response

I can only speak to PE, but moving as an IB Associate 3 / VP 2 (5-7s of IB experience) into PE is incredibly difficult because neither a post-MBA or pre-MBA PE position makes sense for you or the employer. You won't be placed into a post-MBA because the typical post-MBA positions are just really hard to come by, most PE shops want people that have prior PE experience and went to a top MBA (I've anecdotally heard even Wharton MBA folks have struggled to recruit into post-MBA PE positions in the recent years), there are more than enough people vying for these openings that are highly qualified, and you don't have much value add without prior PE experience. As a post-MBA, you should be able to start running a lot of the diligence process and managing the pre-MBA associates, which someone that's joining with 5-7 years of only IB experience just won't be able to do. Doing diligence during a M&A process is very different than running the M&A process. I have seen folks coming out of a top MBA, go into MBB, and then lateral into a post-MBA PE spot at a consulting heavy fund, but that's less than a handful. On the other hand, you have too much work experience to be in a pre-MBA PE position. Some new MM/lower MM PE fund that don't have a structured hiring process may look at an IB person with that level of experience for either type of position, but it'd be highly opportunistic (think a brand new fund that just raised $200mm of capital, in a random geography that has a hard time attracting strong talent that would want to move to middle of no where city X).

Frankly from your perspective, you'd be doing yourself a huge disservice to jump to a pre-MBA role. If you're a IB ASO 3 or VP 2 going into pre-MBA PE, you're going to be taking a massive pay cut (most PE pays $175-$250k vs. probably $350-$600k in IB at that level), at the very bottom of the totem pole again (no more pawning off shit you don't want to do and there's still plenty of shit work in PE), and working more hours in PE than in IB. On top of that, you're still going to have to compete with those highly sought after post-MBA PE positions which might require you to get an MBA (and you'd probably be a little too old at that age), and would still be a pay cut because the little carry you start to receive isn't guaranteed and has typically 5-7 years before fully vested (and had you stayed in IB you'll have continued to see increases in comp). Also, as you move up in PE, origination/selling becomes just as important. You have to sell yourself/your fund to the management teams (price doesn't always win the auction, especially in MM), you have to sell to LPs to fund raise, and the more you can source proprietary deals the more likely buy cheap and generate better returns.

Most people don't make it to partner in PE, and I believe especially true for folks that are getting into the PE industry these days where it's a much more saturated market than 10-15 years ago. This is my personal opinion, but I think there's a very strong argument to be made that regardless if you stay in IB or PE, your career in either of those tracks will most likely last 5-10 years because most just don't make it to the top. If that's the case, you'll maximize your earnings potential over that time period just by staying in IB and being middle to top ranked, and avoid the risk associated with having to pay $250k plus two years of earnings give up for an MBA and possibly seeing very little of your carry because the fund either didn't perform well or you weren't vested by the time you left. If you ultimately end up in some kind of corporate development or corporate strategy role after IB/PE, coming from a GS/MS/JPM is probably just as good if not better than a non MF PE (some industry folks just aren't going to know a lot of the PE funds outside of MFs even if your returns are great). Btw, I'm not advocating against going to PE obviously because it is a different job and you can learn a ton, especially if you can do it in your analysts years. But it's just not as simple as PE > IB, there are other considerations.

 
unidentified123:

I If you ultimately end up in some kind of corporate development or corporate strategy role after IB/PE, coming from a GS/MS/LAZ/etc. is probably just as good if not better than a non MF PE (some industry folks just aren't going to know a lot of the PE funds outside of MFs even if your returns are great).

Just curious what your reasoning is behind Corp strat/dev being as good or better than non mf PE ?

 
unidentified123:

I have seen folks coming out of a top MBA, go into MBB, and then lateral into a post-MBA PE spot at a consulting heavy fund, but that's less than a handful.

Could you specify which funds are consultant heavy in NY? I am MBA business schools ">m7 post mba that just exited to corporate strategy but PE/VC roles are more desired.

 

Geography is mostly a limiting factor with regards to logistics. So using your example, the candidate you described would on paper be a perfect fit for a NYC based tech fund / group. However, being a 5-hour flight away does have serious drawbacks that will ultimately limit your ability to recruit on the other coast. Any associate recruiting process will includes at least 3 rounds (and I include social events such as coffee chats, drinks, dinner, etc here) and many funds will do as many as 5 or 6. These are often organized at the last minute or need to be moved around quite a bit due to deal and travel schedule. Given it's not abnormal for candidates to go through recruiting for 10+ funds, you can see why going through all that is much easier for someone who works down the street than for someone who's on the other side of the country.

 
Controversial

This guy couldn't be more wrong. My middle market firm has placed numerous people at BX, TPG and HIG to name a few. Middle market banks get great exposure to PE firms as most companies they represent on the sellside are being sold to a sponsor. As a result PE firms realize these analysts are the real deal and have relevant experience selling to a sponsor, whereas Bulge brackets do a lot more strategic deals.

Not saying you have a better chance getting into PE by going the middle market route, but saying there is "nothing encouraging" about working at MM is ignorant. I will also say that yes more people from BB firms go into PE but I would say the same % of analysts at my MM place at the top PE firms as the same % of analysts from Goldman or JP.

Also, the feedback I've gotten from the ex analysts that have gone onto to PE firms is that they're better prepared than the BB kids. They were part of leaner deal teams and executed more deals during their two year analyst programs than BB kids.

Sorry but OP sounds like of the college or HS kids he describes in his post.

 

I'm tasting the salt here... While I do agree the OP was rather dismissive of MM placement, I'd agree that non-BB/EB bankers are at a considerable disadvantage when recruiting for MF's. That's not to say that there are no exceptions; I've heard of a guy at BX NYC PE from Raymond James (keyword heard, but you get the point.) However, these candidates tend to be anomalies. If you want an idea of what placement is like, scroll through the team pages or Linkedin profiles of the associates at a PE fund you're interested in and see what banks they came from. That'll give you a decent picture of where MF's tend to recruit.

That being said, getting into a MF in general is a crapshoot. I'm willing to bet that less than 5% of bankers from your classic BB/EBs will get into MF's. So its a struggle for everyone really.

It's okay if you disagree with the OP, but I'd say he's spot on. Don't be so butthurt about what he's saying because maybe you really do have a chance for BX/TPG/HIG/wherever your buddies went to.

 

Are you sure they were at BX and TPG buyout (vs. distressed or other places -- not that they are not also great places, but also different)? HIG is a very different animal and very willing to take MM PE analysts because they typically work on smaller transactions (avoiding larger auctions is probably the biggest driver of their top quartile/decile IRRs over the years)

Also, going to a BB does not limit you the way that an MM does. Maybe not BX or TPG, but there are absolutely top PE firms that will only interview or give offers to top BB candidates - look at H&F, Bain, or Berkshire for instance, and having the ability to get those looks is critical because PE recruiting is very competitive and it is an absolute numbers game.

 
Funniest

Are you saying that first impressions from a 30 minute - 1 hour interview with questions that can be memorized/BSed aren't accurate representations of a persona's intelligence and competence?

An absolute mad man.

 
frenchstudent:

I've seen recruitment both at UG and grad level and boy do the smartest people not go to the best firms. The banking recruitment process is generally quite poor at identifying the best people.

True, but there is a lot to be said for "most polished". Your true geniuses are often slight oddballs.....socially functional and even charming but just eccentric enough that you can notice it.

Also keep in mind that banking is a sales job. You need to be smart enough to handle lots of Algebra but attention to detail and sales skills are a lot more important in the long run. If you want a job where brainpower is the main determinant of success join a quant fund.

 

Thanks for the informative post, OP. Would be great to hear you elaborate / others perspectives on the emphasis placed on undergrad school & GPA during PE (MF & MM) recruitment process.

More specifically, would a non-target not even be considered for first round interviews by some PE firms? How does non-target status impact HH perception? Are there tactics to overcome any barriers that may exist for non-targets? ...etc.

 

I'm curious. As a soon-to-be first year analyst at a "top" MM / "low" BB firm (Jefferies / HL / UBS) who doesn't care about working at a MF, what do my exit options look like? A couple of weeks into my summer around half of the analysts in the group I worked in the most left to PE firms and a couple to other banks. I'm more interested in the MM PE space and corporate development. I come from a semi-target school and have a good GPA (3.9) and already took the GMA (740), but GPA should go down this year as I'm taking rough math & CS classes. I searched previous posts but OP seems to have a different opinion on MM exits than others (not exits to MFs, just exits in general). Definitely not disagreeing with OP as I have only worked in banking for 10 weeks -- just confused by the discrepancy & wanting to plan ahead.

 

Not all of the smartest, most qualified analysts are at EBs / BBs. As someone mentioned, a couple 30 minute interviews with highly predictable questions are pretty easy to get by on. There's also a fair amount of networking involved - can't tell you how many times I saw kids in my fraternity get jobs @ elite boutiques / BB because their dad was a major client or worked there before.

Headhunters reach out to the EBs and BBs more aggressively than MM for 2 reasons. (1) It's a number's game - there are just more NYC analysts at these banks over regional banks (2) PE tends to be more focused on prestige / legacy. If a PE fund gets in a habit of hiring a bunch of GS / MS kids and those kids have done well in the past, they continue to just have a huge selection bias. You know what the training program is like at MS, GS, etc. You may be blown away from some all-star @ Edgeview or Stephens, but more often than not the known commodity gets chosen. The instances where I've seen regional banking analysts get these jobs @ TPG / BX is when a deal team worked directly with that analyst, thus knowing exactly what that person is capable of.

And for hedge funds, I think it's just about getting the interview. Once you get through the initial screening, it's a pretty level playing field.

 

Hey, a great post and certainly true for America (I work here).

However, if you are working in Europe and reading this - please keep in mind that America is very different to Europe. To sum up the main difference, exit opps are more flexible in Europe whereas it is more stringent in America. For instance, big 4 to PE in America? Forget it. Big 4 to PE in Europe? Very possible. This is just a simple example, but you get the idea.

 

2) the money in banking is as good as (if not better than) the vast majority of career track exits, especially on a risk-adjusted basis,

^this is perfect, my 2c below:

unless you think you can be a 9/10 or 10/10 in investing, you'll probably make more money in banking. still you could always do ib>>pe>>mba>>ib so net-net i think you get additional optionality with pre-MBA PE

 

The only thing not entirely accurate about this is that deal flow doesn't really matter that much. You're going to be interviewing ~6months into the job and honestly most people won't have very credible deal experience. What's important is how you spin what you've done so far and be able to craft a story around it to tell your interviewers from an investor's perspective.

 

Yes, and to the extent that it does I would argue that deal flow is actually a negative. More deals = less time prepping for interviews and it is tougher to come across as polished and smart if you are working on stressful live deals 100 hours a week vs low stress pitches 80 hours a week.

 

Question about the culture point you made. I agree with the example you gave but what if the extremes are larger (perhaps a less realistic scenario but can happen).

Imagine you get an offer from an top EB (CVP, GH or PJT) and a regional MM (BNP Paribas or Unicredit) and you hate the people/culture at the EB. Would you still advise going to the MM even when the brand name and reputation difference is this large?

 
wukong123:

I'm also wondering if the high attrition rate among analysts is really true. Most of them went through a long internship working those hours, so why do many quit suddenly before finishing the 2 year (or less) stint needed for the exit opps.

There are actually many IB analysts who love IB and would love to be career bankers. But most of them would not come to WSO to whine for they have nothing to whine about. Those who hate IB and can't wait to get out are far more likely to come here to whine. That's why you get a skewed picture.

 

Extremely competitive and way more so than just getting a FT offer. Think about it, there are close to 100 new analysts at each BB every year and most of the mega funds take like 1-5 analysts in each class (some more some towards the lower end). Sure if you are GS TMT, MS M&A, etc etc most guys are going to place well into PE and HF's. But if your at a mid or lower range BB in an average group then you need to be a top analyst.

 
wukong123:

So how do those analysts without good exit opps do salary wise after, does their salary take a hit if they have to transition to a ordinary job?

Many analysts would choose not to leave for exit opps. They get promoted within IB and get bigger pay checks.

 

There are a lot of people in general who leave jobs 2-3 years out of college regardless of the career or position. Throw in a very long hours, a generally tough working environment and add in the fact that most banks are 2, and maybe 3, years and out and it makes it generally easy to leave. The prized exit opps are tough to get into and when you have a top name like GS on your resume you can get into other lines of work outside of IB, PE, etc somewhat easily.

But I agree with Hedgeking: some people like banking. There are definitely some benefits to banking compared to the buyside and it comes down to what you like and fits your personality, be that banking, PE, corporate dev, lifeguard or bbq entrepreneur.

 

First year at a mid tier BB here. From what I've seen, if you are in a decent group (M&A, sponsors, coverage group with some solid deals, lev. fin.), if you want to do PE, there is a good chance you can find at least a job at a small/start up PE shop. Gun to my head for some numbers, I would guess 70% of the analysts in the relevant groups recruited for PE, 20% for HFs (there are analysts who recruited for both). Of those who tried for PE, I'd say 60% have come out with at least one offer this recruiting cycle. The HF process is a little more drawn out and random. I don't really think your "analyst rank" matters per say recruiting in your first year, as your ranks/bonuses don't come out yet. It is more about how well you've crafted your story, how well you can connect with the interviewers, how well you can talk through your deals, and how you perform on the investment case studies. Finding the time to prep for interviews while maintaining your mental sanity is half the battle.

By your second year, if you're in a relevant group, and you've worked hard enough, you'll have had two chances to recruit, and if you really wanted, there is a good chance you can get a PE offer from a at least a small/start up shop. We are not talking about the merits of MM vs MF or banking vs. PE or a prestige contest here. Just trying to lay out some general stats from what I've seen.

 

I have one more question related to recruiting. For first round interview slots at schools IBanks recruit on campus for, is the number of slots generally constant across schools or do some bigger schools have more slots. Also, is it often the same group of kids that get these interviews?

 
ambition56:

HedgeKing seems like an informed troll or is HR at bank XYZ trying to convince their fledglings to against leaving the nest

How do you think about the likelihood that some of those glorifying the exit opps are headhunters?

 

By the numbers, the odds are not good (tons of people going for a small number of positions). BUT by the interviews, if you're prepared and a decent candidate your odds are actually very good; there are very few actually good candidates. vast majority of analysts are incredibly underprepared (not able to speak to deals, not where they should be technically, don't understand basic concepts) or are able to think on the spot during case studies. when you cut the fat (i.e. remove the analysts who blatantly don't do well in the interviews) there are actually very few people that most firms end up choosing from, and from there it's just fit.

 

I saw someone go from GS Chicago -> Silver Lake in WC. Also, there was a thread about LA BB IBD here last week and someone from an Elite Boutique said analysts from EB LA got interview offers at large cap NYC firms. Obviously logistics make things a bit more difficult, but that seems to be the case for NYC analysts looking to switch coasts as well. (Besides a couple of WC firms that conduct final round interviews in NY, as someone on WSO noted)

 

I'm curious as to people's thoughts on IB on the west coast if your goal is to do PE/HF also on the west coast. I would have thought you were at an advantage based on geography alone to do IB in SF if you wanted to stick around the area for buyside. Is this not the case? Is NY IB seen as a better starting point even if your ultimate goal is to be on the west coast?

"I know you think you understand what you thought I said but I'm not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant."
 
Redacted:

I'm curious as to people's thoughts on IB on the west coast if your goal is to do PE/HF also on the west coast. I would have thought you were at an advantage based on geography alone to do IB in SF if you wanted to stick around the area for buyside. Is this not the case? Is NY IB seen as a better starting point even if your ultimate goal is to be on the west coast?

Would be curious to know what people say as I am thinking along those lines too..
 

More and more shops are opening up multiple offices or new firms are popping up regionally. Never been a better time to be looking in non-traditional locations. Someone should put together a list of non-core exit opps for PE/VC.

 

Fantastic reference. Not looking for an ordinal ranking though, more interested in "trends", e.g. XXX group is getting more looks from MF's than before recently, or XXX group has been hit hard in dealflow since a baller MD left. Think that'd be a lot more useful than relying on "top groups" threads from '09, and it's info that's hard to get unless you're actually inside the industry.

 

Updated to make the point more clear. Not interested in becoming a rankings slave at all (

), may have given off the wrong vibe at first. Really looking for trends/recent notable happenings more than anything, especially "underrated" stories that may be less familiar to those currently outside the industry.

 

I would side with buybuybuy for sure.

The coming trend will feature a lot of consolidation. Some of the smaller, more traditional firms are going to suffer over the next few years and the big banks will survive and look to add to their footprint. Despite the job cuts, I don't think it is complete panic mode at this point but I'm still skeptical.

As to how that will affect exit opps? Not 100% sure but the cream of the crop will still get hired at the better firms. If we do double-dip and face major issues in the next year or so I could see firms cutting back in terms of recruiting, but deals will still happen and PE is not going to disappear.

 

A lot of firms people move to after IBD (PE, asset management, corporate development) still look for IB (or consulting) experience, IBD will still be busy and will be as long as some sectors keep doing well (tech, energy, etc).

cubiclecrowd.com blog.cubiclecrowd.com
 

Definitely do not talk about your future aspirations as if you know them. "I want to do this for X, then Y, and then achieve my objective of Z" -- Big no. Similarly, like college, you will enter with a specific mindset thinking that you will do X, Y Z, and then life happens and you end up doing A, B, C. That's not to say that ABC is worse (or better) than XYZ, but that your mindset changed once you started and realized that other things interested you too.

For the "Why X?" question. Don't focus on the opportunities within that role or firm. Focus on what YOU can bring to that position or that firm. Mention your skill set and what you can bring to the table. They don't need to be told that investment banking is great, challenging, blah, blah blah. They know that. Show them how you fit.

However, I think it is important to bring up long(er) term goals in the interview on your own accord. Don't discuss it in an answer. Ask the questions: "How long is the analyst program? What follows the program? I'd love to hear about your story and your career trajectory." This shifts the focus to them (remember: an interview is a formal conversation, both parties should be actively engaged and sharing their own, don't make it all about you) and it also allows them to tell you the future opportunities. I did this with a VP at a BB and she responded: "After the analyst program, you either take a specialized role, or you start on a managerial path. Thinking over your resume and your experiences, I'd encourage you on a managerial path." Do I want managerial? Of course I do. I never told her that during the interview, and she put the hat on me in the end. The psychological thing here is that not only did she picture me completing the analyst program, but she saw future success after the program.

You want them to think in that dynamic. Showcase your experience and skills, and then let them think of your best path. If you tell them you want X in 5 years, then they'll be forced to think: "Can we accommodate that?" and most often times firms do not want to do that. They want an eager employee that is open to opportunities, not one that might underperform if they do not have what they want. (To wrap up the interview: I did receive a FT offer from the BB.)

 

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success
From 10 rejections to 1 dream investment banking internship

“... I believe it was the single biggest reason why I ended up with an offer...”