Coronavirus - Turning a Corner + What's Next
We may be turning a corner in more ways than one today.
On actual disease progress, see links below to some graphs showing not only turning the corner on deaths in NY and USA ex NY, but also in Florida which is telling because Florida was supposed to be the next big wave.
https://twitter.com/WolfofMStreet/status/12474863…
https://twitter.com/WolfofMStreet/status/12474879…
Also turning a corner in the national conversation to what comes next. The guy to watch on this is Scott Gottlieb, who has been ahead on this the ear of many leaders in DC. Article below discusses his national testing plan.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/07/former-f…
Mostly just wanted to start the thread as a forum for latest info and to hear views on it. Thanks.
Sorry if tweets w/ graphs didn't paste clearly. Cant seem to get a clean paste on the first one. Both came from @WolfofMStreet on twitter who updates national and state data pretty regularly.
Frankly I’m too tired and lazy to click through various sites and search for graphs myself. What ways have we turned a corner? It seems like deaths per day is still very much growing, which is basically the derivative of total deaths. So if deaths(t) is growing, meaning that the slope of total deaths is > 1.0, doesn’t that mean the problem is getting worse?
If I’m wrong I’m wrong. But that’s how I read the data and apply some basic calculus concepts to it.
Not really. Deaths are a lagging indicator as it takes time for the disease to progress to that level. I would say number of new cases is the leading indicator, obviously, and that appears to be tapering off..
That makes sense. Good take, I forgot to take into account how deaths lag. Which makes sense because we saw explosive growth 1-3 weeks ago, meaning this week and next should be hell. But so long as new cases taper off we should see that number decline.
Still atrocious with the amount of people dying from this. And that brings 0 comfort to those whose loved ones will die as we celebrate asymptotically 0 new cases, but from a macro perspective it’s good.
Even if cases are leveling off, that’s required extreme social distancing with 30+% of the workforce sitting on their couch. Won’t this spike right back up when we relax these restrictions?
Everyone and the market is acting like we’ll be back to normal in a few weeks when I think it’ll be at least a year.
When the stock market is up, all is good. I think employees will go back to their offices when the number of cases starts declining substantially. When that will happen, I have no idea. Sadly, the probability of normal sporting events returning this year is low. I suppose teams will get back on the field without any fans initially. i am not sure when fans will be allowed back into packed stadiums/arenas. While health is certainly the most important consideration, it is terrible not to be able to watch any sports.
There's levels of normal. Totally back to normal will take a very long time, agree with you.
I think the relevance of turning a corner in the near term is that many economic casualties (job loss, small businesses closing etc) are a function of how long our current high level of shutdown lasts. An extra few weeks one way or another could be make or break for many.
I am in this camp as well. Regardless of whether or not we overreacted, the fear of it has been sown and we are shutting things down globally. I voiced my concern that we’re not stressing our models enough the other day and was not taken very seriously by my manager.
Vaccine is estimated 6+ months away for emergency use and probably closer to 12+ for general public. Even we manage to return to some semblance of normalcy this summer with warmer weather slowing down the spread, what’s going to happen this September when everything cools down and standard flu season picks back up? It’s going to resume and if there’s no preemptive shutdown, it could end up growing to larger numbers than we saw over this current winter/spring. Western economies were not designed to handle anything remotely like this for more than a few days. We are levered to our ears. There will be massive social unrest and potential upheaval in coming months. People will either demand consistent (not just one time) UBI and mass debt forgiveness, or a mass reopening of the economy.
I’ve seen comments on other threads stating we shouldn’t or don’t have to choose between the economy and human life. This will end up being an experiment testing the viability of modern monetary theory. Doesn’t matter if one agrees or disagrees with MMT, most world leaders will choose to print and hand out money rather than telling a portion of the world population to get fucked.
STFU and stop making threads on this you annoying pos
is he even a doctor
He's "Doctor, Ram a Dick in my ass"
What's annoying about it. Its just info.
he's free to make threads, just like you're free to ignore them
Mike Burry (of Big Short fame) has come out of the woodwork to slam the reaction to coronavirus as excessive.
He has also said that they are overcounting the Covid deaths because they're treating everyone who died with it as having died because of it. CDC reported today that pneumonia deaths are down in the last month, hmm I wonder why that would be.
Looking forward to hearing y'all trash Dr. Burry as not being expert enough, just like the bankers in 2007 who told him he didn't understand their field. LOL. Dude is smart as they come.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-07/michael-burry-slams-…
Watching conservatives scream that China is under counting deaths, and then arguing....to do the same thing here has been highly entertaining. Consensus seems to be that if anything, we are UNDERcounting deaths, as many people dying at home are never tested nor counted despite high suspicion from EMT and morgue workers. In Spain and Italy, we've seen total deaths during this period far higher than expected deaths + Covid cases, suggesting that either they've also under counted, or stressed their healthcare system so greatly that it led to other unrelated deaths.
The undercounting you're describing is certainly happening. What I'm describing, I suspect, is also happening. I guess we'll know when figures come out showing non-Covid deaths for XYZ period vs the same year prior. There's probably folks out there today looking at that data, but can't imagine its a solid data set yet at this time.
I like listening to Michael Burry, and I’d look into what he says regarding stocks and economics. But I don’t think he’s a point of authority over global pandemics and public health. He got his MD but dropped out of residency to pursue a career in the financial markets. Nothing wrong with that, he’s obviously very intelligent. But his words don’t hold much more credibility than mine on the issue. It’s just opinions mixed in with some data points
Fair, but I think you'd feel better about trusting smart non-experts if you read one of the expert models. You'd be very surprised at how many unsubstantiated and sometimes illogical assumptions they make. Not saying I wouldn't still place high value on their work. But definitely a little bit of "emperor has no clothes" feeling when you read those. And then a sharp non-credentialed person like a Burry or a Taleb comes across and questions it loudly, with their own reputation on the line, I think as a third party observer I have to take that very seriously.
Idk I’d trust a non-practicing MD over most BA in Comparative Literature NYT journalists
As mentioned below, we are most likely Undercounting COVID deaths. And as far as pnemonia, it's seasonal.
This is another reason we need testing, we're only doing about 150k a day. Also need antibody testing.
keep me out of this
Lol at making predictions of fat tailed events using normal distributions.
Part 2.
Part 1 was on Feb 2: https://www.wallstreetoasis.com/forums/wuhan-virus-now-at-58-mortality-…
See how that turned out.
Where is a normal distribution being used.
It is telling that the two tweets you linked to in your original post have already been deleted. I'm not sure why "The Wolf of M Street" was a credible source to begin with - an anonymous twitter tech bro who retweets Fox News personalities, rallies against the "main stream media" and "liberals/leftists," promotes the unfounded Hydroxychloroquine "cure," and various other bullshit. This is even less of a legitimate source than Dr. Drew from your last thread, which is saying something.
You are entitled to your opinion and perspective, but your clearly biased thread titles, framing of the information, and atrocious "sources" betray your sense of "I'm just asking questions here" and do a disservice to WallStreetOasis.com as a website.
The virus has not "turned a corner" for any reason other than people have been largely forced to stay home. If they are not forced to stay home until the widespread testing that your Politico article proposes is implemented and effective, the infection and death counts will go right back up.
The tweets actually haven't been deleted. I don't know why the links keep breaking here on WSO. But you can go to that twitter account, scroll down to yesterday morning, and you'll see them.
Once again you've failed to establish me as a liar. I'm genuinely sorry that this post had some issues with clean linking to the information. I always want things to be easy for anyone who would take the time to read the thoughts of a nobody like myself. I place a high value on convenience to others.
But your accusations are false, as they always are.
Except that I didn't attempt to "establish you as a liar" - I specifically said your sources are garbage and you have a history of using garbage sources and biased titles to push a point of view. It doesn't make you a liar so much as it makes you biased, and your insistence that you aren't pushing your agenda through your framing is intellectually dishonest.
This exchange itself is a perfect example. I don't think you lack reading comprehension. My post above doesn't call you a liar at all. You are simply framing what I say incorrectly so that you can "successfully" argue again it - otherwise known as a strawman argument - much like you frame the issues in the threads you create incorrectly.
You would be great as a cable news pundit. Outside of Fox & Friends, however, the tactic is ineffective.
Demanding to close threads is worse than making dumb threads. If he posts crap, he gets roasted. Censorship is just bad.
I think the OP is has a heavy long position in Carnival stock. He doesn't STFU and keeps posting BS. He's trying to make himself feel better about his stock portfolio, by convincing himself that everything will be ok. Reminds me of the time, this gay kid who we all knew was gay kept pretending to like chicks. He would say things like "This chick has sexy kinds of boobs". We all knew he was gay, but he kept trying to convince himself. In summary, OP is that gay kid.
I wish! Carnival up 50% in the last week.
As mentioned in a post over the weekend, I did go heavy long into some pretty exposed names. Not the absolute most exposed (i.e. no airlines, no Carnival, no hotels) but I did take the next rung down risk-wise: food services, entertainment, malls (my mall pick rather obvious from another thread I did), and some biz services that would get crushed if WFH becomes a thing. So pretty counter-trend, and its been a great week so far. But Carnival would've been nice.
Opportunity I see now is to get back into some of the shorts I exited last week.
Any picks/thoughts, always love to hear them.
Dude... are you really a doctor?
You have such poor social skills, how do you even deal with the general public...
Small, but interesting (I think) update. A friend of mine was volunteering in Central Park these last few weeks to build a makeshift hospital there. She just got word from the project leader that volunteers will no longer be needed due to reduced hospitalization in NYC. Not sure if that means the makeshift hospital won't open at all, or if it just means there's less urgency now or what. But certainly a positive development.
No need to put overflow patients into a tent at Central Park anymore? Sounds like we’re all about ready to get back to work if we only needed hospitals at 150-200% occupancy, makeshift conference center hospitals, and a Navy ship to handle the patient load. Guess people overreacted after all.
Just thought people might appreciate some good news. Didn’t mean to offend the Angriest Man in America
Look man, if it smells like shit everywhere you go, maybe it's time to look under your shoe. I think it's telling that the vast majority of comments in your thread are negative, and I think it would do you well to reflect on why that is.
Funniest comment I've seen in a while. +1 SB.
Life going good all things considered. Family healthy, friends healthy, I'm healthy. Would like to see the world in a better place obviously, but I'm hopeful. Even less important things like fund performance going well.
But some unreasonable folks on WSO are mad at me, so I think it's time to re-evaluate my life. LOL. I mean literally, laughed out loud when I read that.
Since you were kind enough to give me advice, here's some back: take this less seriously.
My apologies, I wasn't talking about your personal life; frankly I don't really care. I was referring to WSO – if nobody likes your threads, maybe it's not that everybody is wrong. Maybe your threads just suck.
Your analytical skills are lacking.
Do more research, prepare better analysis, and provide a better list of recommendations that are non-biased and supported by FACTS and not anecdotal experience.
Little weekend gift for the fans.
Have a nice weekend all. Stay safe.
https://twitter.com/bethanymac12/status/1248254058776977408?s=21
Just to put the article's 2.2M figure in context (taken from your link):
"By the end of the summer, the pandemic will have directly killed 2.2 million Americans, notwithstanding those who will indirectly die as hospitals are unable to care for the usual slew of heart attacks, strokes, and car accidents. This is the worst-case scenario. To avert it, four things need to happen—and quickly."
I think Bethany's tweet is a bit misleading. Not taking a side on anything here, just felt that was worth pointing out.
True but that cuts both ways. There are predictions in the article of dire circumstances, even with social distancing, that aren’t materializing. I forgot the # of ICU cases it claimed we’d have with social distancing but it was something we’ll never reach. But you are right, some context missing in her tweet. Adding financeabc since he made a similar comment. Appreciate the responses guys, I’d almost forgot what civil engagement looks like.
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