DB Future Outlook

I know there has been discussion on this forum regarding DB and their decline in recent years, but curious to hear what you guys think of their restructuring plan and potential outlook 5-10 years down the line. Are they really doomed or is their a chance they regain ground?

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Comments (20)

  • Intern in IB-M&A
Apr 6, 2020 - 2:07am

I do not consider myself an expert, so the following just states what I have read / heard.

If you look at the share price at the start of the year, you can see that it actually rose significantly until the recent COVID-19 outbreak (partly, as Capital Group invested approx. USD 500 mn. in February this year). Hence, people in various articles I have read suggested that Sewing's plan actually seems to work out slowly. Though of course now, with the looming recession, things might get more difficult. However, as one official put it "If the government is willing to take a stake in [German airline] Lufthansa, one does not need to worry about Deutsche".

I am not sure in which area you are interested in, though e.g. in M&A they still had a very strong position in Germany last year, and I guess a still a solid one in Europe, advising some interesting deals (e.g. ThyssenKruppElevator deal, EON/RWE/innogy, Aroundtown/TLGImmobilien).

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  • Intern in IB - CB
Apr 6, 2020 - 8:16pm

Looks as if things are stabilizing for them (obviously now everyone is going through difficult times), but wouldn't be a bad place to be for A1/A2 in the next few years. Group dependent, of course.

  • Prospect in IB - Gen
Apr 6, 2020 - 9:55pm

DB is still a decent place to be if you want IB. The other BBs/EBs (except UBS) are definitely going to be much better. Right now things look shaky so it is less attractive than even some top MM firms. That said, the future could see them regain some status, depends on how they prioritize and execute their IBD strategy.

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  • Prospect in IB - Gen
Apr 6, 2020 - 10:06pm

Like I said it's a decent place for IB. Do some research on why people have a negative outlook on it and you'll come out with your own opinion. That said, a lot of DB shit talkers on here can't even get an offer from them, so take everything with a grain of salt. In the end, it's still one of the top 15 investment banks.

I'd take DB over any MM, unless you qualify Gugg as MM.

  • Intern in IB - CB
Apr 6, 2020 - 10:21pm

Taken from another thread, but interesting insight.

"I'll bite. Posting this from a throwaway because people would probably know who I am based on my main account's post history.

I'm at DB. I am of the opinion (and most people internally) that we're now starting to stabilize. Layoffs in the IB division proper are done, staff turnover has been pretty quiet over the last month, and management has been making a concerted push to really invest/grow groups that have not been our strongest in recent years. Healthcare has been hiring a lot of new people, FIG has brought in a whole new slew of seniors (former global head of GS FIG Celeste Guth is now head of DB FIG, many directors/MDs brought in from GS/other strong banks) and the Sponsors/REGLL/LevFin groups remain top 3-5 on the Street at what they do. The cuts in early summer were fat that was long overdue for a trimming (inept associates/VPs, and directors/MDs that weren't generating revenue) and a Natural Resources group that quite frankly had never been a contender.

Many things can change over the course of a year (hell, there could be another recession and even the GS 2019 intern loses their offer), but I'm confident that there won't be any more shocks to our US investment bank in the near future. Nobody in my group is concerned about job security (knock on wood, hope I didn't jinx myself lol). Even when the Houston office closed some (note: not all) of the interns were accommodated in other offices.

TL;DR - you are fine dude. If you want to discuss this at length, PM me and we'll chat."

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