Regardless, the guy is probably in deep trouble. If he manages to survive this, I think there's a good chance of him winning an all-expense-paid vacation to the Hague.
Dude is done, whether it takes a day or a week. The sooner, the better I think, I could see oil going deep into the 200s if the Saudis lose their grip.
It was just a matter of time until someone would try to kill him. I mean, hiring Eastern European mercenaries to handle your dirty work against your own people, never ends well...
Goodbread, you see the BoA report? If one other major oil African oil producer goes down thanks to revolution, like say... Algeria... there will need to be a serious rampup in production and you'll gonna see Oil break 220.
This shit is scary man... Oil above 150 will be bad... 200... looks like commuting is going to be a very expensive process.
$200/barrel oil roughly translates to $6.50/gallon gas, depending on how refining margins react (will likely depend on how much LSC production goes offline). If the average American gets 27 mpg when they drive and drives 36 miles round trip on commuting, this would increase commuting costs by about $4-5/day- maybe for one year while the Middle East recovers. For someone earning $16-20/hour, this works out to an extra 15 minutes of work every day.
Terrible news for the rural poor, but not a big deal for the middle class. Consumer balance sheets can take the hit.
$200/barrel oil roughly translates to $6.50/gallon gas, depending on how refining margins react (will likely depend on how much LSC production goes offline). If the average American gets 27 mpg when they drive and drives 36 miles round trip on commuting, this would increase commuting costs by about $4-5/day- maybe for one year while the Middle East recovers. For someone earning $16-20/hour, this works out to an extra 15 minutes of work every day.
Terrible news for the rural poor, but not a big deal for the middle class. Consumer balance sheets can take the hit.
IP, I tend to agree with you from a mathematical standpoint but I think the damage to the fragile consumer psyche would be horrible. 6.50 a gallon would kill consumer confidence.
If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses - Henry Ford
$200/barrel oil roughly translates to $6.50/gallon gas, depending on how refining margins react (will likely depend on how much LSC production goes offline). If the average American gets 27 mpg when they drive and drives 36 miles round trip on commuting, this would increase commuting costs by about $4-5/day- maybe for one year while the Middle East recovers. For someone earning $16-20/hour, this works out to an extra 15 minutes of work every day.
Terrible news for the rural poor, but not a big deal for the middle class. Consumer balance sheets can take the hit.
IP, I tend to agree with you from a mathematical standpoint but I think the damage to the fragile consumer psyche would be horrible. 6.50 a gallon would kill consumer confidence.
But it would also make people who got the fixed gasoline price plan feel so baller.
But it would also make people who got the fixed gasoline price plan feel so baller.
Fixed gasoline price plan??
Some while ago Ford (?) had a campaign where if you bought their cars you would get to be able to buy gas for 1.99$ a gallon for 2 (?) years. Something along those lines.
But it would also make people who got the fixed gasoline price plan feel so baller.
Fixed gasoline price plan??
Some while ago Ford (?) had a campaign where if you bought their cars you would get to be able to buy gas for 1.99$ a gallon for 2 (?) years. Something along those lines.
I keep writing IR at my oil companies and asking if they can offer retail investors X # of gallons of gas at a discounted price in lieu of dividends. Would be a lot more tax efficient for everyone.
But it would also make people who got the fixed gasoline price plan feel so baller.
Fixed gasoline price plan??
Some while ago Ford (?) had a campaign where if you bought their cars you would get to be able to buy gas for 1.99$ a gallon for 2 (?) years. Something along those lines.
I keep writing IR at my oil companies and asking if they can offer retail investors X # of gallons of gas at a discounted price in lieu of dividends. Would be a lot more tax efficient for everyone.
That's not half that bad an idea, but it would screw the large investors over.
That's not half that bad an idea, but it would screw the large investors over.
Howso? Texaco (using an old oilco name as I am prevented from mentioning specific investments online) pays its retailers my $50 dividend out of its dividends budget, I get a $1/gallon discount on my first 50 gallons of gas, and it incurs fewer profits taxed at 35%. Win-win for everyone but the IRS.
That's not half that bad an idea, but it would screw the large investors over.
Howso? Texaco (using an old oilco name as I am prevented from mentioning specific investments online) pays its retailers my $50 dividend out of its dividends budget, I get a $1/gallon discount on my first 50 gallons of gas, and it incurs fewer profits taxed at 35%. Win-win for everyone but the IRS.
Shortly after filling up, you get an ax and start chopping trees to get out of the gas station. 3 days later, you go looking for rocks to pave the road to your house... and so forth.
That's not half that bad an idea, but it would screw the large investors over.
Howso? Texaco (using an old oilco name as I am prevented from mentioning specific investments online) pays its retailers my $50 dividend out of its dividends budget, I get a $1/gallon discount on my first 50 gallons of gas, and it incurs fewer profits taxed at 35%. Win-win for everyone but the IRS.
How do you deal with funds, for example? It gets really complicated compliance/ops-wise. Not to mention that even for large individual investors, they may get more oil discounts than they know how to deal with.
That's not half that bad an idea, but it would screw the large investors over.
Howso? Texaco (using an old oilco name as I am prevented from mentioning specific investments online) pays its retailers my $50 dividend out of its dividends budget, I get a $1/gallon discount on my first 50 gallons of gas, and it incurs fewer profits taxed at 35%. Win-win for everyone but the IRS.
How do you deal with funds, for example? It gets really complicated compliance/ops-wise. Not to mention that even for large individual investors, they may get more oil discounts than they know how to deal with.
They could repackage and sell the discounts and we'll call them CDS (Crude discount swaps) that should scare the fuck out of the common man.
If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses - Henry Ford
How do you deal with funds, for example? It gets really complicated compliance/ops-wise. Not to mention that even for large individual investors, they may get more oil discounts than they know how to deal with.
They don't have to opt into it. Most of the ops/compliance stuff would be internal to the oilco if you can convert the stock to the equivalent of an RSU- held with the firm- and back.
There wouldn't be a tax advantage for a rich investor, but for someone with 500 shares paying $2/year in dividends, it would save a lot in taxes. If Texaco did this, they'd probably be able to get a 35% tax break on 10-15% of their dividend payments.
If you're talking a ~40 mile round trip commute, that's a round trip between where I live and where my parents live. If I were to do that daily, I would need to fill my car up ~2-3 times a month if I used it soley for commuting. You double that from 40 to 80 miles, round trip, and you're talking every 3-4 days. What about the people who work in NYC that don't live near a bus or train line who are forced to drive lengthier commutes. Oh, and my favorite is the costs incurred by NJ Transit on their desiel fuel lines.
While your math might be right, HPM is right in that you're not factoring the expected increases across the board to commuters and non-commuters alike. Gas over $4/Gallon is a psychological barrier that people do not want to see crossed. At $4/Gallon, you will start to see the prices of shipped goods go up, and if oil continues to increase, that's going to continue to eat into the costs of living. At $5/Gallon, that's going to have a huge impact on Food prices. At $6... looks like I'm gonnna start home brewing again.
Yeah Frieds, I thought Nomura had come up with that number (http://tinyurl.com/47plx92).
In any case, that's pretty scary. If you were to extrapolate that kind of increase in prices to serious unrest in Saudi, we're talking $300-$500 oil which is basically instant demand destruction and a guaranteed double-dip recession. The coming months will be very interesting, even though I suspect Saudi Arabia will get out of this scotch-free.
Word on the street is the US may tap into SPR(Strategic Petro Reserve) if anything happens in saudi.
SPR is at aabout 757 MM BBL. It can pipe barrels at 200-300k Bbl/D.
Not sure but if Gaddafi got shot and did die..why would that be bearish?
All signs point to 100+ crude but why did we have such a sharp sell off near the close.
It would represent a slow-down in the turmoil. Libyan oil would be up and running fairly shortly and the risk of contagion with regards to unrest probably recedes. Oil is fairly priced a 100+ in the current situation IMO, but the move to 120 was definitely tied to the Libyan crisis.
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I heard he was on TV a few minutes ago in Libya.
Well his voice was, at least.
Regardless, the guy is probably in deep trouble. If he manages to survive this, I think there's a good chance of him winning an all-expense-paid vacation to the Hague.
http://af.reuters.com/article/energyOilNews/idAFN2428958920110224
From what I"ve heard, it's unsubstantiated... so far.
He's already stated he'll "die a martyr" before he steps down. It's that, or flee to to Venezuela to be with his lover Chavez
Dude is done, whether it takes a day or a week. The sooner, the better I think, I could see oil going deep into the 200s if the Saudis lose their grip.
It was just a matter of time until someone would try to kill him. I mean, hiring Eastern European mercenaries to handle your dirty work against your own people, never ends well...
Goodbread, you see the BoA report? If one other major oil African oil producer goes down thanks to revolution, like say... Algeria... there will need to be a serious rampup in production and you'll gonna see Oil break 220.
This shit is scary man... Oil above 150 will be bad... 200... looks like commuting is going to be a very expensive process.
$200/barrel oil roughly translates to $6.50/gallon gas, depending on how refining margins react (will likely depend on how much LSC production goes offline). If the average American gets 27 mpg when they drive and drives 36 miles round trip on commuting, this would increase commuting costs by about $4-5/day- maybe for one year while the Middle East recovers. For someone earning $16-20/hour, this works out to an extra 15 minutes of work every day.
Terrible news for the rural poor, but not a big deal for the middle class. Consumer balance sheets can take the hit.
Shortly after filling up, you get an ax and start chopping trees to get out of the gas station. 3 days later, you go looking for rocks to pave the road to your house... and so forth.
PS - you got robbed on day 2.
There wouldn't be a tax advantage for a rich investor, but for someone with 500 shares paying $2/year in dividends, it would save a lot in taxes. If Texaco did this, they'd probably be able to get a 35% tax break on 10-15% of their dividend payments.
IP,
If you're talking a ~40 mile round trip commute, that's a round trip between where I live and where my parents live. If I were to do that daily, I would need to fill my car up ~2-3 times a month if I used it soley for commuting. You double that from 40 to 80 miles, round trip, and you're talking every 3-4 days. What about the people who work in NYC that don't live near a bus or train line who are forced to drive lengthier commutes. Oh, and my favorite is the costs incurred by NJ Transit on their desiel fuel lines.
While your math might be right, HPM is right in that you're not factoring the expected increases across the board to commuters and non-commuters alike. Gas over $4/Gallon is a psychological barrier that people do not want to see crossed. At $4/Gallon, you will start to see the prices of shipped goods go up, and if oil continues to increase, that's going to continue to eat into the costs of living. At $5/Gallon, that's going to have a huge impact on Food prices. At $6... looks like I'm gonnna start home brewing again.
Yeah Frieds, I thought Nomura had come up with that number (http://tinyurl.com/47plx92). In any case, that's pretty scary. If you were to extrapolate that kind of increase in prices to serious unrest in Saudi, we're talking $300-$500 oil which is basically instant demand destruction and a guaranteed double-dip recession. The coming months will be very interesting, even though I suspect Saudi Arabia will get out of this scotch-free.
Word on the street is the US may tap into SPR(Strategic Petro Reserve) if anything happens in saudi.
SPR is at aabout 757 MM BBL. It can pipe barrels at 200-300k Bbl/D.
Not sure but if Gaddafi got shot and did die..why would that be bearish? All signs point to 100+ crude but why did we have such a sharp sell off near the close.
It would represent a slow-down in the turmoil. Libyan oil would be up and running fairly shortly and the risk of contagion with regards to unrest probably recedes. Oil is fairly priced a 100+ in the current situation IMO, but the move to 120 was definitely tied to the Libyan crisis.
Occaecati est et repellat et reiciendis neque qui est. Optio vel molestiae amet quod harum minima reprehenderit modi. Dignissimos sed voluptatem sed aut aliquam. Commodi nisi fugit pariatur pariatur mollitia modi tempora. Temporibus et nesciunt nulla autem maxime pariatur sapiente. Qui et sunt voluptatem.
Ipsa sint quia dignissimos dolores eum. Sit totam asperiores laboriosam quo. Dicta veritatis iste et culpa ullam.
Laboriosam ducimus saepe voluptatum sunt ipsum sequi sint ut. Labore itaque et voluptas nostrum dolores tempore dicta. Omnis itaque voluptate dolore quidem. Id autem quam nihil vero non.
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Ut est eveniet hic eum eligendi. Nostrum et odio saepe voluptas id qui necessitatibus voluptatum. Suscipit aut magnam vel. Expedita nihil et possimus quo modi quidem molestiae. Vel fuga eum est rerum sequi enim est. Mollitia voluptatibus ipsam assumenda architecto repellat et ut.
Natus molestiae vero similique eligendi rem. Ex molestiae et quod et eum. Dolorum earum amet aut voluptatem. Voluptatum sed sit est sit quos cumque. Debitis aut rem a est.
Id magni qui qui rerum sit ut. Nemo et tempore provident est. Harum distinctio incidunt et. Natus rem hic temporibus aut id et. Aut doloremque vel qui tempora.