Macro meanderings?

Not sure which sub-forum this belongs to, but it would be awesome to have a thread dedicated to discussing various global macro views. There are multiple members that I have interesting macro-related discussions with and it would be interesting to hear their views in a consolidated form.

PS. Oh, and if we do create this thread, let's keep politics out of it. I don't care if you are a conservative or liberal, I care about hearing your view about the market, preferably built on some evidence.

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Comments (14)

Feb 24, 2019

Nice, looking to here some perspectives. Unfortunately I'm in energy so I don't know how much I can relate. But be nice to hear from guys like @Martinghoul @ironnchef @macro bruin @Revsly who trades trade macro, specially in rates or rates/currency vol but have been MIA.

Feb 28, 2019

I kind of like this idea as someone from the outside. I feel that the financial media generally don't do a good job of discussing macro, and I would be really interested to see what industry people are thinking about.

Feb 28, 2019

Yes, would be nice to get some sort of weekly post on here for macro

Mar 12, 2019

4 months in a row of decline in furniture/home furnishings; 5 months of decline in electronics/appliance sales; clothing at a 10-month low; gas sales at a 15-month low; electronics at an 18-month low; furniture at a 20-month low. All shutdown related? Nah.

The long-term historical patterns suggest gold getting a significant bid at the end of an easing cycle - given that we are in (not beginning) the cycle now that's at least a two-year horizon.

Mar 21, 2019

i understand macro to be large thematic moves between asset classes (Rates / FX / Credit / Equity Index, etc...)...so this probably belongs in AM asset mgmt.

What was on your mind?

just google it...you're welcome

Mar 21, 2019
faceslappingcompilation:

What was on your mind?

"I got my mind on my money and my money on my mind" (c)

It's an odd market, feels like we are on the brink of something but any potential catalysts get completely ignored. Credit is weak, numbers are crap all over... yet we grind up like nothing is up - is that the Fed put in play?

What's it like from your rates perch?

Mar 21, 2019

Just moved the thread here, to the investing & macro forum :-)

Mar 21, 2019
Mostly Random Dude:

Not sure which sub-forum this belongs to, but it would be awesome to have a thread dedicated to discussing various global macro views. There are multiple members that I have interesting macro-related discussions with and it would be interesting to hear their views in a consolidated form.

I think given FEDs latest dovish stance, we won't see rates going up for a while and market will keep climbing until we get some much more bubbleicious valuations.

As far as the ROW and China trade concerns, I think they are a drag, but would could be the catalyst to our next downturn is if real estate continues to soften... ideally, we see a nice shallow recession in 2020-21, but who knows. Would love to hear your thoughts.

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Mar 21, 2019

in so I can follow this thread, very curious

Most Helpful
Mar 22, 2019

From the other side of the pond: manufacturing is doing abysimal in Ger/Fra/Ita, No Deal Brexit being a realistic possibility could cost Germany 100k jobs, ECB launching TLTRO 3 smells like a panic move, upcoming European elections could be a further blow (unlikely-though the recent regional elections in the Netherlands say that the polarization wave is still riding high). The Old Continent is dying.

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Mar 22, 2019

There is a substantial growing disconnect between pro forma rents and tenant's ability to pay said pro forma rents in most markets across the majority of asset classes. This is exacerbated by rising labor costs, both in construction and operations. Value-add capital will be forced to re-adjust expectations.

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Mar 21, 2019

this would lead me to believe rents should come down...which means the attractiveness of homeownership relatively speaking should decline, leading to price pressures

but again, I'm out of my sandbox and don't know much about RE, so please correct me where I'm wrong...

Mar 22, 2019

Feels like everyone is still trying to ease their way out of the 2008 crash, and we've used up the majority of the runway without taking off. I think that a lot of the economic growth has not been "real" and driven largely by cheap credit (#1 culprit being Chinese corporate/commercial credit). With growth slowing worldwide, I think there are a lot of concerns about the ability to pay off these expenses in the future.

I think more advantage could've been taken of the cheap credit to invest in infrastructure, particularly in developed nations. It's relatively easier to create jobs/employment/income through building/renewing roads & utilities to increase consumer spending, as opposed to relying on tech breakthroughs (eg. electric cars) to drive sales of new companies. Unfortunately, this can come across as "left" political stance.

It's tough to ignore the political lens for macro perspectives IMO. You can't talk about growth rates in Africa w/o talking about massive Asian investment in natural resources. Likewise, is it good for Nigeria that 1 guy (Dangote) is investing massively in staple products like cement & fertilizer? Yes it's good because investment = jobs --> positive future, etcetc. So people use Nigeria as a positive example for economic activity in Africa, but where are the competitors? Are we seeing the early stages of monopolization of resources/materials? I can't say for sure (it's likely no one can), but having $17 billion in Africa goes much farther than $17 billion in USA/EU/Asia.

I work in a ridiculous real estate market where projections are still aggressively upwards around the board (eg. all asset classes, most geographic markets), and considering some of the economic #s coming out recently, I don't agree with some of the market's bullish views.

$0.02

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