To what degree should we worry about moral hazard as governments around the world prepare bailouts?
Question is quite simple, many people expect a deeper and more prolonged recession than in 2008 now, and the Fed has already taken unprecedented steps in providing liquidity to capital markets. But really more countries than just the US have executed huge bailouts with potentially 18-24 months more of such activity. Before the COVID19 we were all talking about the resilience of the US consumer propping up anemic global growth, in the absence of that - perhaps for a while - is there any real possibility here of creating zombie industries, encouraging behavior like the airlines’ stock buyback program post 08 (could be something else come next recession), and weaponizing international commerce as more of these companies find themselves increasingly indebted to tax payers and constrained by populist sentiment at home? Do these concerns even matter long term in the context of a normal/prolonged business cycle if an outbreak like this is considered a hundred-year event?
Moral hazard’s possible implications seem to be a more accepted and less talked about part of these bailouts than in 2008, so I was curious to hear thoughts on the probability and magnitude of these concerns.
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