With the recent convictions of both Cohen and Manafort is Trump in trouble and more importantly what is this going to spell for the US (and even global) economies. Will this be the catalyst that leads to a large pullback?
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I don't have any particularly insightful comments, but this is absolutely fascinating to me. even though I've never been a fan, I'm going to wait to pass judgment on donnie until more evidence/rulings come out (hate the court of public opinion).
on the one hand, business and consumer confidence has pulled back with tariff talk, so maybe since this will distract donnie from that it helps boost confidence again? on the other hand, if this leads to a blue wave and the reps who aligned themselves with trump get taken to the cleaners, that likely bodes well for gridlock (cough obama cough), which is not good for markets.
it's plausible that this is the straw that breaks the camel's back, but I'd bet that Q3 & Q4 earnings hold off the bear a little while longer, but peaking earnings by year end plus political gridlock could be a recipe for disaster.
however, I'm not betting on that, I let fundamentals guide my decision making, because while reflexivity has an interesting place in history (thanks soros), I'm too simple minded to act on it
I don't like impeachment talk here. Donnie's got TNAs all over the country. Whether that's right or wrong doesn't matter. I don't think it will stop Dems, but if the message isn't hard on "cleaning up" to "get things done", we're screwed. These people will only be more upset, if it looks like the left is going to remove him just to overwrite anything he's talked about.
Mexico is going to finalize their NAFTA agreement - benefiting the US.
Canada, being buttfucked by the Saudi's and left out of the negotiations, will be at an even worse negotiating position once Mexico signs. I hope and pray Trump absolutely savages them.
China is getting pounded and Trump is actively working to weaken the dollar. This will further hurt imports (aka China). China will ultimately negotiate a more favorable US trade policy - BTW something big business wants as well. The days of jerking China off are gone. That company has been at trade war with the US for decades now, stealing our IP, jobs, etc.
Please help me understand how the market does anything but go up once we have the trade war ended, all on more favorable trade terms for the US? Combine this with continued repatriation of overseas profits, going into share buy backs, dividends and Capex (all juicing the market). Offsetting a measured Fed increase of rates and rationalizing of their balance sheet.
I am sorry, but the market isn't slowing down. We finally have real growth and a president who cares about this country. The press has been effectively destroyed, thereby allowing any lie to be told as truth. About fucking time since the press has been the only liars selling their cancerous wares.
keep in mind tony I'm not a trump fan nor am I a bleeding heart libtard. trump can help confidence or hurt it, he can help regs or make it more difficult to do business, those are all important, what really matters is earnings. earnings drive stocks long term, so while this political theater can impact short term stuff, it's hard to see how earnings can continue to grow at 20% indefinitely.
this is more than trade, it's about demand and generating profits. companies are operating at near peak profit margins and low unemployment, making organic growth quite difficult (don't have the lowering unemployment tailwind nor a rising profit margin tailwind). I think it's very feasible that confidence stays around, earnings grow in the HSD's for another couple of years, but I think it's going to be a tough proposition to get market growth like we've had (20%+). you don't have the low UST causing valuations to expand (also money is leaving stocks in a big way), so any growth is going to be dividends + earnings - multiple contraction, which doesn't mean 20%+ for the next couple of years.
in other words, I'm not saying anything you say is incorrect, but I am saying that just because you're right, that doesn't mean the market has to continue to go up. you can have a strong economy and a shitty market (see 1987 & 1962), just like you can have a shitty economy and a strong market (see 2009 & 2013). it's not just trade, it's earnings, it's valuation, it's the ERP, it's money flows, etc.
this is what drives people up a wall. obama wasn't the reason for the recovery, we were in the deepest depths since the great depression, kermit the frog could've gotten us above average market growth from 2009-2017. same goes for DJT. if the market sucks but the economy is sound, dems will throw shade at trump, when they fail to see the empirical data that GDP and markets DO NOT CORRELATE. so yes, TNA, I hope you're right in the sense that I want big growth in the US economy, it benefits everyone, but don't treat your portfolio the same way you treat your ballot. think independently.
How's that North Korea disarmament coming along @TNA" Do you still think Trump will get that Nobel peace prize you were bellowing about? You have no credibility on this issue and haven't for a long time.
1) Trump will not be impeached.
2) Mueller was tasked with finding Russian collusion and influence. What he has found is Trump paying women he slept with to sign an NDA.
Trump continues to absolutely dominate and the left has nothing but hysterics. Please tell me how this endless witch hunt is going to help Dems (who have fully embraced socialism and fringe social issues) to win Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana, PA?
And those children who jerk off dreaming of impeachment should look to Clinton to
a) see how long it takes b) how hard it is and c) that it isn't going to remove Trump.
Honestly, Trump needs to declare war on the seditious elements in this country. You have a communist voting former CIA head going around acting like a fucking moron. You have the Democrats demonizing Russia, thereby preventing a powerful ally.
All because the perpetual loser, Hillary, couldn't win the election.
MAGA ETERNITY
Just curious about Trump's "drain the swamp". The fact that an actual swamp in the republican party is being drained by the Mueller probe does that mean nothing?
1) Republicans are just as much the enemy as Democrats
2) Trump isn't a Republican
I give props to the Dems for this Russia crap. It is good political maneuvering. But how much fucking money and time is Mueller going to waste without a Russian connection other than tangential bullshit.
He's not even remotely in trouble. This is a soft coup but ultimately it will fail because our legal institutions are too sound for this banana republic style politics. The Mueller investigation is meant to embarrass Trump and to uncover/share unflattering information about his personal life to divert attention/push narratives for the mid-term and 2020 elections.
The Democrats don't have a platform, at least not an attractive one to any sober minded American, but they control the media. Again, it wont work. They don't have anything and America already knows about Trump's moral personal failings. It's not news and the moral failings of Democrats far outweigh those of Trump.
I’ve never seen anything in US politics quite like the cult of personality Trump has cultivated. His supporters will tangle themselves into a pretzel trying to defend illegal use of campaign funds (Cohen), direct and egregious violation of federal law relating to fraud and money laundering (Manafort), and the soliciting of help from a clearly-hostile nation (Russia) to undermine America democracy, just so they can feel good about supporting Trump and stick it to “the goddamn libruls.” Whatever happened to country over party? It’s one thing to be a conservative, and it’s another to have your head so far up Trump’s ass to blindly cheer for the undermining of your own country’s democratic system and national interests.
The trials so far have only focused on campaign finance violations and tax fraud/money laundering because the trial for conspiracy starts next month. That’s when more details about the Trump campaign’s connections to Russia will begin to come out. I will be willing to bet any amount of money at this point that’s Trump is nailed for conspiracy or financial crimes. An innocent man does not rave on Twitter like a deranged lunatic about how everyone is out to get him. The special counsel, deputy attorney general, and the former head of the FBI all identify as Republicans, and given all of the indictments/guilty pleas that have already come out, for a supposed “witch hunt”, this investigation sure is finding a lot of witches.
Nothing you've said here is even remotely close to accurate and you can't defend any of it. I don't support Trump on a variety of issues but this is the sort of obfuscation and misinformation that liberals are addicted to because they simply cannot win an honest debate.
To just quickly despell your lies:
Save your breathe on the Trump Jr. meeting. A single sit down with a party offering opposition research is not evidence of coordinated collusion/conspiracy with a foreign power. If it were, the investigation would be over and Trump would be in jail. It was a single meeting taken in poor judgement to fight dirt with dirt.
This investigation has thus far only revealed personal, private information of the President's sex life prior to becoming president. It's a coordinated hit job, comparable to what we typically see in banana republics.
You idiots have been saying this for about 2 years now. An attempt to turn fantasy into reality through repetition. A sign of desperation.
Bravo; couldn't have said it better myself.
LOL case in point. A Trump cultist who would rather blindly follow a con man and grifter than think critically about the damage Trump and his administration are causing to American democratic norms. The mental gymnastics to support what has been one of the most incompetent and corrupt administrations in modern American history are truly breathtaking.
I am going to bookmark this post for when Trump is inevitably found guilty of some combination of conspiracy/financial fraud/obstruction of justice. I consider myself more conservative than liberal, but it’s going to be amazing watching the MAGA fans slink away into the shadows their Dear Leader is brought down.
Yeah i don't think this is going to end favorably for Trump. Yeah people are used to his tactics and shenanigans but if he ends up getting charged I think there is going to be a firestorm to follow.
I am a Trump supporter. The fact that this investigation is playing out so long is to Trump's advantage. The worst thing Mueller could have done is to lay his cards out on the table two years in advance. The entire Mueller spiel of surrounding Trump's closest former associates to gain leverage on Trump through their admissions of guilt in various related or unrelated matters is the oldest play in the book. It's literally a page out of the mafia indictment playbook.
Trump has been, and currently is, lawyering up like you can't believe. His legal team will look like the Alibaba IPO banking syndicate equivalent. If any kind of formal conspiracy charges are brought against him, rest assured that this affair will evolve into an epic and drawn-out legal battle with no historical precedent. He will not resign nor will he allow any accusations to go unchallenged or lightly challenged; it will be a bitter contest. In this matter, like most matters in life, it isn't about who is right or who is wrong. It's about who can argue most convincingly and effectively, and similarly who can counter most convincingly and effectively. He literally lives for stuff like this.
The legal fight may extend beyond his 2020 term and influence whether he decides to run again, while maintaining this balancing act. I wouldn't put it past him to try. If there is an indictment and legal battle, it will establish textbooks of legal precedents for permissible actions as a private citizen vs. public citizen, regulations relating to nation communications as a candidate for office, and countless other idiosyncratic points. Grab the popcorn.
Agree with your last paragraph, but given that most top-flight lawyers who were approached by Trump’s team when Mueller’s investigation began declined to represent Trump, and Trump’s cadre of lawyers so far has included baffoons like Cohen and Giuliani, I don’t think the prosecutors are worried in the slightest about Trump’s “dream team” of lawyers.
Green money is good and worldwide publicity is good - two irrevocable axioms in the US. I would be shocked if Trump does not have world-class representation.
Why does every MAGA mouth breather think that what we know about the Mueller investigation is all we'll ever know? Mueller has been air tight and dropped indictments out of left field. He is a world-class patriot and is running circles around Trump's mob boss collection of has-beens and never-weres.
The Russia investigation has produced indictments quicker than both Watergate and Whitewater. Personally, I've got a bottle of Pappy Van Winkle on the shelf at home waiting to be opened the day Trump Jr. gets indicted.
I'm a republican but agree totally with this
Not sure why you're insinuating that I'm a mouth breather, presumably because I expressed my support of Trump. Speaks to your anger level when commenting and your emotional investment - both feminine qualities.
My opinion of how things will shake out conflicts with your view of Mueller's investigation, and he's a "world-class patriot" - that's fine, but I disagree. Let's also not cite unrelated historical precedents that literally have nothing in common with the current "investigation", outside of belonging to a cohort that's labeled investigation. Watergate and the Russian scandal could not be more dissimilar. Let's also not neglect that this nearly two year long investigation has yielded no indictments of anyone in his cabinet. Manafort was his campaign manager and Trump's lackey lawyer was thrown to the sharks.
We'll see how things play out.
I don't think Republicans will ever have to stones to impeach him, so that fantasy is out the window, as much as I'd love it. My concern is we now have the President's personal lawyer admit to committing felonies, at the President's direction, in order to influence an election that was decided by 70,000 votes in three states. That "President" is now in a position to influence the tilt of the Supreme Court for a generation. We have a Constitutional crisis, and the Kavaunaugh hearings should be suspended immediately "until we can figure out what the hell is going on"
They’ve returned POWs, they’ve dismantled sites, they’ve it lunched a rocket in what, almost a year and invited Inspectors.
How about you fucking stay abreast of things.
it really is shocking how poorly informed the bulk of this site is. Like does anyone read source material or just CNN headlines.
What do you read? Where do you get your facts from?
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