What type of hedge funds do you see succeeding in the future?

if I recall correctly macro and event typically do the least poorly during recessions, at least during 2008 I think on average those strategies didn't dip below -5% in annual performance whereas LSE and the rest were around -20 to -30% on average I think (HF people feel free to correct me). there's subsets on top of subsets on top of subsets in the HF industry and within the main strategies so really tough to give an answer. i also think systematic rather than discretionary performs less poor during downturns, mightve been a report i read on that.

have nothing against FOHFs but doubt they will gain in popularity (in general) if the focus stays on fees and stuff.

Pure, non concensus stuff. Talking esoteric RV, deeply directional macro/distressed trades.

Look for stuff that is idiosyncratic and not dependent on CB liquidity pouring into the markets.

Generally, fundamental l/s funds haven't been doing too well. Though, activist investing still is booming and it should be that way. With growing passive investments and quants that rely less on fundamental analysis, corporate management and boards are bound to become disillusioned with their goal of being accountable to shareholders and best increasing shareholder value - i mean that's the whole point of a company, private or public. I think there's going to be a lot of opportunity when stock prices become misaligned with fundamentals and if everyone else is ignoring untapped potential for shareholder value creation.

Since trades are becoming less driven by fundamentals, Activist investors can bring to light the fundamental issues and align stock back with its fundamentals. Investing in a stock simply because it is "undervalued" (as is done in l/s funds) is difficult to ensure high returns because other stock market participants just don't evaluate the fundamentals the same way you do - being active (eg. going on CNBC, writing letter to shareholders) ensure there is a catalyst to your thesis becoming realized by the market.

What do you guys think about activist investing?

There will be successful and unsuccessful funds in every strategy. L/S equity gets shat on because it has the lowest barriers to entry hence it is the strategy with the highest proportion of managers who don't deserve to be running money.

I see Funds that delve into the Credit markets (be it distressed or value orientated) succeeding in the future. There is an equities culture in hollywood and the media that deters a lot of people from Credit funds in an employment sense. Given there is less indexing, less algo and quants movements, more active investors, there are more opportunities as the Credit markets since Debt Markets are twice as large as Equity markets globally. I think that is where there is an opportunity in the Hedge Fund World. If you think differently feel free to try and punch holes in what I said, I want to get more informed with my opinion on the matter.

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Strategy is just a strategy. A investment process to put on positions. Different strategies have different attributes like liquidity, scale-ability, and the current economic environment. How you adjust your risk and portfolio, especially when to go to cash makes a large difference to your YTD P&L.

Im interested to see how well passive holds up when the market turns. What will happen when people have questions about losses and how its going to be mitigated?

Hedge fund strategies and subsequent success are based on the ability to action their strategy. They tend to do better at mitigating risk and some are more comfortable dealing with uncertainty. Many will catch back up when the market turns.

There are certainly outliers but Im not sure why you think on balance quants will be successful- its a pretty sweeping statement and I doubt "we can all agree". If being a quant = success why would anyone do anything else?