Where will San Francisco be in the next couple years?

In thinking about the discussion "San Francisco Sucks" that was posted back in December, there was nothing or very few points that I had disagreement on. As someone who has grown up in the Bay Area and seen it change so much due to the growth of many tech companies setting up shop here, how will San Francisco fair off in the next couple of years? At one point or another won't the Bay Area economy slow down because the growth is just too rapid that the supply of space just won't catch up? Will it evolve to become NYC? Or are the costs in SF so surpassed that NYC comes off as being more affordable?

Housing: biggest problem right now. Rent control has only screwed up the market with tenants not interested in leaving (some being there for decades), landlords not interested in improving/modernizing units.. New developments aren't providing enough supply to the market, they either face restriction or so much opposition if they that are not in downtown. $3,000+ for a 1 bedroom or how about $4,000+ for a 2 bedroom. I've even seen upwards of $7,000 for a 3 bedroom unit. When is there going to be relief in housing? Forget about buying a 3 bedroom condo in a high rise. It's over $3 million dollars in downtown and your view is a brick wall. Oh and did i forget the building has sunken over 18 inches into the ground? Be prepared to live in a sinking building that's also LEANING and who knows what will happen when the big quake hits.

Office space: Is the demand really there? Salesforce Tower, which supposedly opened up recently, is bringing more than 1 million square feet of office space, but it sounds like there is demand as it's 97 percent leased. Facebook recently signed a lease on all the office space in 181 Fremont, their first SF office. They set a record on this lease paying over $80 per square foot. It seems like only tech companies are able to get in and afford the space downtown but what about other companies in other industries that help diversify the economy, where are they going to go if the rent per square foot is constantly setting records.

Infrastructure: Will the Bay's freeways and public transport be able to handle the continued demand and growth? Muni is not reliable never on time. BART is becoming so overpriced populated with bums. Roadways are only getting more congested and bridge tolls are looking at another hike. People who are not affording San Francisco are commuting further out where a 1-hour commute is becoming the norm. What is this???

As a young person it seems like such a challenge to grow a career here without feeling like next year is only going to be even more tech-centric and more pricey. You'd really have to graduate from Stanford and lockdown a six-figure tech job to keep up with the changes in this city. I have friends looking to other cities to build more momentum in their career because SF is not kind to them.

TLDR; Where is San Francisco going to be in the next couple years? Will the "bubble" burst on this all? Will is still be a good place to invest in? Rent is only flying upward both in terms of housing and office space. Infrastructure can't keep up to provide an easy or affordable means of getting around. Will young talent walk away and go to other cities as they only get squeezed out?

 

San Francisco is terrible for young people in commercial real estate. 

There are basically three types of people in the Bay Area:

  • Double Income Tech Workers who can afford to buy a $1.5 million dollar starter shack. 
  • Boomers who bought prior to the tech boom. 
  • Everyone else.  

Young talent in the Bay Area in real estate is scarce because there isn't a big enough premium in pay compared to the cost of living:

  • People under 30 would rather live in NYC (pricey, but an actual 24/7 city) or LA/Dallas/Chicago (the paycheck isn't eaten by rent, so you can actually save / enjoy yourself).
  • People over 30 basically have no chance to set roots (buy homes, have kids) because they can't compete with the tech paycheck. 

Tough spot.

 
Most Helpful

Maxime ratione autem aperiam provident delectus ab. Debitis distinctio ipsam nam labore aut. Fugiat itaque accusamus est eaque natus. Quas ducimus tempora harum et nemo delectus voluptatem.

Minima totam deserunt qui aut. Sunt repudiandae mollitia eum ad. Commodi provident fuga rerum quaerat commodi. Dolorum blanditiis suscipit numquam. Ut beatae omnis aut eaque aut ex. Recusandae natus aut accusamus aut.

Quia doloremque reprehenderit odit atque ab quaerat. Quo nihil et in reiciendis atque. Qui velit et non incidunt et laborum. Ea sequi quia ipsum hic rerum beatae eligendi.

Career Advancement Opportunities

March 2024 Investment Banking

  • Jefferies & Company 02 99.4%
  • Goldman Sachs 19 98.8%
  • Harris Williams & Co. (++) 98.3%
  • Lazard Freres 02 97.7%
  • JPMorgan Chase 03 97.1%

Overall Employee Satisfaction

March 2024 Investment Banking

  • Harris Williams & Co. 18 99.4%
  • JPMorgan Chase 10 98.8%
  • Lazard Freres 05 98.3%
  • Morgan Stanley 07 97.7%
  • William Blair 03 97.1%

Professional Growth Opportunities

March 2024 Investment Banking

  • Lazard Freres 01 99.4%
  • Jefferies & Company 02 98.8%
  • Goldman Sachs 17 98.3%
  • Moelis & Company 07 97.7%
  • JPMorgan Chase 05 97.1%

Total Avg Compensation

March 2024 Investment Banking

  • Director/MD (5) $648
  • Vice President (19) $385
  • Associates (86) $261
  • 3rd+ Year Analyst (13) $181
  • Intern/Summer Associate (33) $170
  • 2nd Year Analyst (66) $168
  • 1st Year Analyst (202) $159
  • Intern/Summer Analyst (144) $101
notes
16 IB Interviews Notes

“... there’s no excuse to not take advantage of the resources out there available to you. Best value for your $ are the...”

Leaderboard

1
redever's picture
redever
99.2
2
Secyh62's picture
Secyh62
99.0
3
Betsy Massar's picture
Betsy Massar
99.0
4
BankonBanking's picture
BankonBanking
99.0
5
kanon's picture
kanon
98.9
6
CompBanker's picture
CompBanker
98.9
7
dosk17's picture
dosk17
98.9
8
DrApeman's picture
DrApeman
98.9
9
GameTheory's picture
GameTheory
98.9
10
bolo up's picture
bolo up
98.8
success
From 10 rejections to 1 dream investment banking internship

“... I believe it was the single biggest reason why I ended up with an offer...”