Which banks are poised for growth in the next 5-10 years?

Business School in IB - Ind

Curious to hear thoughts on which IB firms are truly investing in the business to grow and stay competitive.

Comments (66)

Funniest
Feb 15, 2020

Tobin & Co

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Feb 21, 2020

Ruthless... Can't say I mind in this case.

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Feb 15, 2020

Realistically, I think that some of the banks a little bit behind EB status are bound to make that leap sooner or later e.g. Zaoui & Co or LionTree.

Within the EBs, I think that PJT can continue it's record and really become something amazing.

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Controversial
  • Analyst 1 in IB-M&A
Feb 15, 2020

RBC solidifying itself at a BB level

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Feb 15, 2020

Agree with this sentiment, definetly an up and coming BB

EDIT: Lmao which salty wf/ubs analysts msing this

Array

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  • Analyst 1 in IB-M&A
Feb 15, 2020

Lol I think its more the DB/UBS analysts that have been throwing MS at every single RBC BB post. Pretty sad

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  • Analyst 2 in IB-M&A
Feb 16, 2020

MS more likely to have come from current RBC associates who were paid 50K bonus this year

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  • Analyst 1 in IB-M&A
Feb 15, 2020

Have heard Laz is making strong moves. Some of the "ML in advisory" language kinda seems like bs, but trimming fat in regional offices and apparently investing in new business areas. Raised comp to keep getting top talent, etc. Friend thinks will be best overall EB in a couple years

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  • Associate Manager in IB - Ind
Feb 15, 2020

Cowen & CO

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  • Analyst 1 in IB - Gen
Feb 15, 2020

What are the forums thoughts on PWP, Moelis, Greenhill and Evercore?

Feb 16, 2020

I think Greenhill is in a good position - it seems like 2017 was only an anomaly. The company's turnaround plan looks promising as 2018 and 2019 results suggest - stock was up more than 30% on the 2019 results. The company is also aggressively working on new MD recruitments - let's see what 2020 brings.

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  • Intern in IB - Gen
Feb 15, 2020

Evercore, Centerview, PJT, Barclays, JPM, Citi, RBC, tiny boutiques/restructuring shops all seem to be making strides recently.

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  • Analyst 1 in IB-M&A
Feb 15, 2020

BB: JPM, Barclays
Boutiques: PJT, Lazard, Qatalyst, Evercore

Expect GS and MS will remain competitive

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  • Prospect in IB - Ind
Feb 15, 2020

Don't forget Guggenheim, been steadily trending upwards for the past several years now

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Feb 16, 2020

Whats the positive news coming out of Barclays? I know they beat earnings, but otherwise I'm uninformed.

  • Intern in IB - Gen
Feb 16, 2020

Not OP but IMO its just clearly the european bank most likely to survive, especially with essentially being an NYC HQ'd IB. DB and UBS are non-players, and CS has lost its grip over the last decade and seems to, from a company standpoint, value PWM/AM over IBD. That being said, I don't see Barclays reaching MS/GS/JPM level anytime soon; to even be in that discussion it needs to make some key IB hires in a few groups.

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Most Helpful
Feb 15, 2020

If we speak about current momentum BofA is the big winner. If we look at the long term I would say Barclays and DB will gain the place they used to have in IB.

In any case there shouldnt be large changes in the next 5 years, expect little changes across big players. Only some boutiques will get into the EB state and others will fall off, its a matter of rainmakers changing firms for better pay conditions

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  • Intern in IB - Gen
Feb 15, 2020

Barclays has already proven itself - the Lehman acquisition was an amazing move. Your view of DB is interesting but I certainly agree that it has a brighter future, at least on the M&A side, compared to UBS.

I see the rising firms at JPM, BofA, and Barclays and the falling firms as UBS and perhaps Credit Suisse. I look forward to seeing how RBC(generally positive outlook), DB(generally negative outlook), and WFS(??? outlook) fare over these few years.

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  • Prospect in Other
Feb 15, 2020

How would you compare DB to RBC?

Feb 15, 2020

Well lets go step by step.

Bofa or baml is overhiring now due to high expectations, which means eithe layouts in the short term or getting at the level of JP/MS, one of thowe will happen for sure. This year should or at least is expected by the consensus to be good, who knows next...

JPM keeps resizing, which should be reflected on revenue in short term, but still should keep growing if they focus on key regions.

Barclays acquired Lehmsn divisions but its not what it used to be, its losing market share in some key sectors across M&A due to MDs leaving.

Credit Suisse should scale up its sponsors and TMT franchise and reorganize low profitsble cov sectors if he wants to keep strong in Europe

UBS seems to take a step back and focus on PB or UWM / PWM where they are strong leaders and revenues keep growing, not sure about their M&A franchise

Feb 16, 2020

Deutsche Bank ;)

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Feb 16, 2020

good thing about hitting rock bottom is there's nowhere to go but up

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Feb 16, 2020

That's what Dick Fuld told me in 2008 LMAO

  • Prospect in Other
Feb 16, 2020

Do you think DB will be better than RBC long term?

Feb 16, 2020

HAHA no, RBC got some tricks up their sleeve. RBC future BB

  • Associate 1 in IB - Gen
Feb 16, 2020

BofA/BAML has probably the best growth trajectory out of the US BBs. Citi seems to try to do the same as them but so far BofA seems to come up on top.

JPM actually won't grow as much imo, simply because there is very little room to grow in IBD, sure maybe some more mm fees in M&A/ECM but talking to some seniors there, they are pretty saturated.

GS/MS probably mainly unchanged although outside M&A/ECM, GS seems to have a growing franchise whereas MS is pretty much unchanged (not sure the Mitsubishi thing will make a difference beyond a few mega deals)

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  • Analyst 2 in IB - Ind
Feb 16, 2020

I'd say GS is growing even in M&A, take a look at their cross markets initiative.

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Feb 16, 2020

Not sure it qualifies. GS is a giant hedge fund that occasionally pretends it has some banking business.

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Feb 29, 2020

This is a solid point - GS is dipping heavily into midmarket business which was traditionally covered by Blair, Baird etc. A lot of business development in that area may favor GS given the brand if the client has no previous banking relationships.

Feb 17, 2020

Berenberg is on a pretty high streak atm, wouldn't be surprised if they establish themselves as the new boutique on the block.

Vincet Voluntas - Will shall win

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Feb 18, 2020

Wait and watch Mediobanca grow

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Feb 18, 2020

Not HSBC.

"Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent."

Feb 19, 2020

Just to speculate a bit here. Corporate leverage is pretty high these days. Energy (specifically upstream oil/gas) is an easy target, but there are pockets of other sectors drowning in debt with no real liquidity levers to pull that the market will support. With that said, I'd say any shop that does a lot of restructuring / bankruptcy emergence will probably do pretty well in the near-term.

In terms of shops: HL, Lazard, PJT, Moelis, and probably Evercore. Maybe Rothschild. I would assume bulge-brackets with strong RX desks will also reap some pretty interesting fees.

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Feb 19, 2020

what about BMO IBD?

Feb 19, 2020
first_year_chimp:

what about BMO IBD?

LOL, no... see here

https://www.wallstreetoasis.com/forums/state-of-bm...

Feb 21, 2020

WSO's COO (Chief Operating Orangutan) | My Linkedin

Feb 21, 2020

I like most picks mentioned. I'm actually going to take this post as a moment to criticize a bank which deserves hard criticism but never receives it and that is Goldman. Their market cap and growth numbers over recent years show underachievement. DJ D-Sol better switch up his goals.

Feb 21, 2020

Piper Sandler is already 45b in deals this year. will be a huge banner year for the firm.

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Feb 21, 2020

What is the sentiment in the Middle Market? It seems shops like Baird and Blair are separating from firms such as Lincoln, Pipar, etc.

Feb 21, 2020

Piper's doing pretty well AFAIK

Feb 23, 2020
Shooter McGavin:

What is the sentiment in the Middle Market? It seems shops like Baird and Blair are separating from firms such as Lincoln, Pipar, etc.

I'm not sure why people struggle to grasp this concept, but it has been talked about ad nauseam.

It depends on the group

Overall, I'd still rank the top two as HL and Blair with Piper, Baird, HW, LMM in close pursuit and top ranked in specific verticals. Lincoln isn't on the same level overall, but has some more competitive groups (HC services).

Feb 28, 2020

How so on Baird?

  • Intern in IB - Ind
Feb 23, 2020

Within the Canadian market - Nationak Bank and Canaccord have both been making strong pushes. NBF in particular has had a bumper L12M.

  • Associate 2 in IB-M&A
Feb 28, 2020

Honestly, how the hell would any of you monkeys know anything about this point to begin with.

Feb 28, 2020
Comment
Feb 28, 2020