BILL GROSS AND THE "SEEING EYE TOILET" 
(Senior Monkey, 71 
Points) on 7/29/10 at 12:40pm
For those of you who haven't had a chance to read it yet, Bill Gross of PIMCO has some choice words (as usual) to say about the economy.
Do you think his point is valid? I get the feeling he is over dramatizing a dilemma, without actually covering all the variables (tech/shift of spending habits of the elderly into a more gratification oriented mindset etc....). What do you guys think?
I think his point is valid,
by AG0311I think his point is valid, scary too. Our generation is in for some pain!
haha his first paragraphs
by LIBORhaha his first paragraphs were very funny
Lol watch them replace all
by alephLol watch them replace all the toilets in their Newport Beach HQ with the old models.... this is power........
I read the article pretty
by Anthony .I read the article pretty fast because I am in the middle of something, but I would like to mention something that might be missing from that article.
Yes, world birth rates are declining and yes you need more people to buy more stuff, but even with birth rates declining you can still have a growing global economy. We have probably 2 Billion or more people living in utter poverty. Once all of them are driving SUV's with 9 LCD TV's and a McMansion like Americans then we can worry about less people creating less consumers and less GDP.
Absolutely not disagreeing with Gross, just saying that GDP is driven by fat, over consuming Americans and poor people increasing their standard of living. Having another billion poverty stricken world citizens is only going to increase despair and global misery rather than GDP (at least increase GDP by anything other than a small amount).
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its Solow growth model... I
by LIBORits Solow growth model... I don't think Bill is really coming up with anything new here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exogenous_growth_model
and yah from now on whenever I see a seeing eye toilet I'll think of Bill Gross (haha i don't think that is a good thing)
Bill's the man. But like
by Midas Mulligan MagooBill's the man. But like many legends of the game, at this point he's selling his personal brand as much as his actual investment analysis. This is a point to keep in mind when reading him.
I will refer to the classic Paul Tudor Jones documentary (which I believe was posted by Edmundo some months back) where he and his cohort...using some heart rate monitor looking lawnmowputer predict the '87 crash...however, if you listen to their analysis it sounds a lot like the '08 crisis...my point?
Even the most perfect and truthful analysis is flawed long term, simply because we cannot predict how emotionally people will react to subsequent news. I agree with most of what BIll is saying, but as Anthony pointed out something like declining birth rates does not guarantee slowed growth.
As always...time will tell.