Bonus Bananas November 22, 2013

1) Stupid Things Finance People Say (The Motley Fool) - Thought I'd lead of the week with a little humor. Some of these are hilarious in their idiocy.

2) Hedge Fund Expert Zask Pleads Guilty To Child Pornography Charges (FIN Alternatives) - The only reason I'm posting anything about this sick SOB is to point out the level of moral equivalency a good attorney can bring to bear on a court proceeding. This sicko was allowed to plead out because "he was going through a really dark time in his life." Despicable.

3) Vietnam banker sentenced to death for fraud (Aljazeera) - Here on the other end of the justice spectrum, this former central banker is about to get the needle for his part in embezzling $25 million. You read that right: $25 million, which is more or less a rounding error in the scope of most recent American financial frauds. I guess Vietnam doesn't play.

4) Come On, Apple Fans, It's Time To Admit That The Company Is Blowing It (Business Insider) - (Disclosure: I'm currently short AAPL.) Apple is getting killed by Samsung in the market share arena, and there's a lot wrong with this company right now. Patrick and I went back and forth the other night (he's long) after this report came out, and there really are two sides to every story. At one point I told him I'd be buying AAPL at $90 before he was buying TSLA at $90, because I'm a dick that way. But all joking aside, AAPL is hemorrhaging market share and doesn't seem to realize that they're just a platform provider.

5) Research: Cubicles Are the Absolute Worst (Harvard Business Review) - I can remember climbing under my desk just to be able to hear as a young monkey. It sounds awful but I think all the noise adds to the overall energy level in the room. But yeah, cubicle life sucks.

6) Spirit Airlines Pokes Fun at Toronto Mayor Rob Ford’s Crack Use (ABC News) - Rob Ford needs his own cable channel. I want to form an exploratory committee to see if we can get Rob Ford into the White House. Rob Ford is what Charlie Sheen aspires to become. Rob Ford gives zero fucks.

7) Inside Aaron Carter’s Bankruptcy: How He Wound Up Worth Just $8,000 (Dog Included) (Yahoo! OMG) - You might be wondering why I'm linking to the hard luck story of a former boy bander, but those of you who remember my sordid tale of of blimps and boy bands will get it. Even from behind bars, Lou Pearlman is screwing people's lives up.

8) Humans do NOT come from Earth – and sunburn, bad backs and pain during labour prove it, expert claims (Daily Mail) - I don't know about you, but I have no trouble believing that Earth is a prison planet and we're the genetic detritus of the universe. How else do you explain Honey Boo Boo?

9) Scientists Discover 10,000-Year-Old Cave Paintings in Brazil (Sci-News) - I have a feeling a lot of what we believe about human history is going to change over the next decade, as scientists are forced to accept the notion that human civilization has been around a lot longer than 10,000 years.

10) CELEBRATE WORLD TOILET DAY AND BE A DRIVER! (United Nations University) - Here's everything you've ever wanted to know about feces in a handy infographic. Thanks, United Nations!

Video of the Week:

I thought I'd get a little deep on you guys this week as we head into Thanksgiving Week. The following is a well-done video set to a talk given by Sam Harris about the transient nature of human existence, how "now" is the only thing that matters, and how you're kidding yourself that you're going to live forever by wasting your time. Carpe the motherf**kin' Diem, gentlemen. You're not gonna get a second chance at this.

That's it for this week, guys. Let me know what you think of this week's Bananas in the comments, and have an unforgettable weekend!

 

Dr Ellis said many people feel that they don’t belong and feel at home on Earth.

Really going out on a limb here, isn't he? I'd love to see the sample size for that assertion. I absolutely think Civilization has been around longer than 10,000 years and frankly I'm all but certain there are 'aliens' out there. I think, however, that he needs to get a better book cover to be taken more seriously with his 'evidence.'

 

1 is great, it proves that finance is little more than sticking your hand in a jar and pulling out random numbers, that and expert excel skillz.

On APPL, I told you all that their profit margin expectations will kill that company. I'll sit on my golden throne and say I told you so when it happens.

Follow the shit your fellow monkeys say @shitWSOsays Life is hard, it's even harder when you're stupid - John Wayne
 
heister:

#1 is great, it proves that finance is little more than sticking your hand in a jar and pulling out random numbers, that and expert excel skillz.

Nobody can predict future stock prices, got it.
heister:

On APPL, I told you all that their profit margin expectations will kill that company. I'll sit on my golden throne and say I told you so when it happens.

Except you, apparently.

(PS -- What company is APPL?)

 

10 sponsored by Zappos?

1 is great. I have to be honest: I look around my job some days and really say to myself "these people are full of shit, and if I stay here too long I will be too, if I'm not already". The news, the sales folks, the reports...it's so much bullshit. How can anyone be putting a buy rating on anything if we all know the market's going to tank in late 2015.

RE #9 - Really cool find! I know that in America, there have been several large scale civilizations that have collapsed. This was long before the white man came, and no reasons are known. Entire civilizations built up and then just totaly disappeared. Only the achaeological record will tell why. Here's one: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hopewell_tradition

Cool stuff, your posts are really excellent this week. Thank you!

Get busy living
 

Also love #1. Earnings calls contain some of the most disconnected rhetoric I've ever heard. Finance jargon is so annoying.

People demand freedom of speech as a compensation for freedom of thought which they seldom use.
 
Scott Irish:

Cubicles do suck. But I wouldn't want to do that open concept office crap either. Guess I just don't like people all that much.

Basically I just want to be Ferriss or Braverman.

My #1 criteria in my office seating arrangement is that people can't see my screen so I can troll WSO in peace.

"For I am a sinner in the hands of an angry God. Bloody Mary full of vodka, blessed are you among cocktails. Pray for me now and at the hour of my death, which I hope is soon. Amen."
 
duffmt6:
Scott Irish:

Cubicles do suck. But I wouldn't want to do that open concept office crap either. Guess I just don't like people all that much.

Basically I just want to be Ferriss or Braverman.

My #1 criteria in my office seating arrangement is that people can't see my screen so I can troll WSO in peace.

I just took a new role and had facilities rearrange my cube for this exact reason.

twitter: @CorpFin_Guy
 
duffmt6:
Scott Irish:

Cubicles do suck. But I wouldn't want to do that open concept office crap either. Guess I just don't like people all that much.

Basically I just want to be Ferriss or Braverman.

My #1 criteria in my office seating arrangement is that people can't see my screen so I can troll WSO in peace.

1 goal: screen protection

2 goal: path to get to cube doesn't go past staffer / MD

 

As for #9, I was under the impression that the overwhelming majority of anthropologists believe that the history of human civilization extends well past 10,000 years ago. Which scientists still need convincing?

"For all the tribulations in our lives, for all the troubles that remain in the world, the decline of violence is an accomplishment we can savor, and an impetus to cherish the forces of civilization and enlightenment that made it possible."
 
Edmundo Braverman:

10,000 years ago is basically where they pinpoint the advent of agriculture. I think we're going to see that number revised older by a good deal in the next decade or so.

The advent of agricultural domestication in the Fertile Crescent, yeah, but not the inception of human civilization (unless we're conflating the two?). I'm not sure what progress cave drawings depicting a hunter-gatherer (i.e. non-food producing) society in South America would make towards altering our timeline estimate. Especially considering the actual dating is "between 4,000 and 10,000 years ago". This accords precisely with expectations, no?

"For all the tribulations in our lives, for all the troubles that remain in the world, the decline of violence is an accomplishment we can savor, and an impetus to cherish the forces of civilization and enlightenment that made it possible."
 
Best Response

1 is great. In banking, I quickly saw how 99% of everything we spouted as our "expert advice" is b.s, and when it backfires we can just throw our hands up and say "well it doesn't always work out that way". It's interesting to hear from folks in other fields saying much the same for other areas like equity research. It's basically no different from a weatherman or SportsCenter talking head, who can tell you everything based on their expert area knowledge and when they are totally wrong, it's not on them.

The video was fantastic. I find myself in a similar sort of rut right now, as I ponder next steps, assuming that whatever that may be will miraculously fix everything...on that note, back to Excel.

 

great reading. loved #1 and am disgusted by #2. doesnt really surprise me that some people can get away with anything but some of the BS in the justice system is just mind-boggling.

that video is inspiring and without a doubt true. constantly looking toward the future and not living in present...as i type this on a message board and can only think about paying for the mortgage i just committed to yesterday...

a goal without a plan is a wish
 

Re: #1 - I used to use "More sellers than buyers" all the time as a smart-assed answer when a client would ask why some piece of shit stock I sold him was going down. They'd always shut up for a minute to think about it and decide if I was being serious or just being an ass.

Another of my favorites when someone asked me if I really believed something I'd convinced them to buy was going to go up was, "If it doesn't work out, I'll always think it should have."

 
Edmundo Braverman:

1) Stupid Things Finance People Say (The Motley Fool) - Thought I'd lead of the week with a little humor. Some of these are hilarious in their idiocy.

2) Hedge Fund Expert Zask Pleads Guilty To Child Pornography Charges (FIN Alternatives) - The only reason I'm posting anything about this sick SOB is to point out the level of moral equivalency a good attorney can bring to bear on a court proceeding. This sicko was allowed to plead out because "he was going through a really dark time in his life." Despicable.

3) Vietnam banker sentenced to death for fraud (Aljazeera) - Here on the other end of the justice spectrum, this former central banker is about to get the needle for his part in embezzling $25 million. You read that right: $25 million, which is more or less a rounding error in the scope of most recent American financial frauds. I guess Vietnam doesn't play.

4) Come On, Apple Fans, It's Time To Admit That The Company Is Blowing It (Business Insider) - (Disclosure: I'm currently short AAPL.) Apple is getting killed by Samsung in the market share arena, and there's a lot wrong with this company right now. Patrick and I went back and forth the other night (he's long) after this report came out, and there really are two sides to every story. At one point I told him I'd be buying AAPL at $90 before he was buying TSLA at $90, because I'm a dick that way. But all joking aside, AAPL is hemorrhaging market share and doesn't seem to realize that they're just a platform provider.

5) Research: Cubicles Are the Absolute Worst (Harvard Business Review) - I can remember climbing under my desk just to be able to hear as a young monkey. It sounds awful but I think all the noise adds to the overall energy level in the room. But yeah, cubicle life sucks.

6) Spirit Airlines Pokes Fun at Toronto Mayor Rob Ford’s Crack Use (ABC News) - Rob Ford needs his own cable channel. I want to form an exploratory committee to see if we can get Rob Ford into the White House. Rob Ford is what Charlie Sheen aspires to become. Rob Ford gives zero fucks.

7) Inside Aaron Carter’s Bankruptcy: How He Wound Up Worth Just $8,000 (Dog Included) (Yahoo! OMG) - You might be wondering why I'm linking to the hard luck story of a former boy bander, but those of you who remember my sordid tale of of blimps and boy bands will get it. Even from behind bars, Lou Pearlman is screwing people's lives up.

8) Humans do NOT come from Earth – and sunburn, bad backs and pain during labour prove it, expert claims (Daily Mail) - I don't know about you, but I have no trouble believing that Earth is a prison planet and we're the genetic detritus of the universe. How else do you explain Honey Boo Boo?

9) Scientists Discover 10,000-Year-Old Cave Paintings in Brazil (Sci-News) - I have a feeling a lot of what we believe about human history is going to change over the next decade, as scientists are forced to accept the notion that human civilization has been around a lot longer than 10,000 years.

10) CELEBRATE WORLD TOILET DAY AND BE A DRIVER! (United Nations University) - Here's everything you've ever wanted to know about feces in a handy infographic. Thanks, United Nations!

Video of the Week:

I thought I'd get a little deep on you guys this week as we head into Thanksgiving Week. The following is a well-done video set to a talk given by Sam Harris about the transient nature of human existence, how "now" is the only thing that matters, and how you're kidding yourself that you're going to live forever by wasting your time. Carpe the motherf**kin' Diem, gentlemen. You're not gonna get a second chance at this.

//www.youtube.com/embed/T3JzcCviNDk

That's it for this week, guys. Let me know what you think of this week's Bananas in the comments, and have an unforgettable weekend!

Get busy living
 

Edmundo, disagree with you on the AAPL prediction to $90. The cash alone supports the stock at a level way over that price. I do think TSLA is overvalued still, so TSLA reaching $90 is feasible. AAPL reaching $90, not so much. Regarding market share, I think you have to look at market share differently. There's a high end market, and a low end market. Samsung competes in both of those markets. Apple doesn't. There's no money to be made in the low end market, so why fault Apple for making a product for a market that results in profit (not losses) to their company? Why make a low end market phone, and make $0 profit? What am I missing?

 

My AAPL at $90 crack was just to get Pat riled up. But if they're finished innovating, they may as well start loaning that cash pile out and become a bank, because everyone else in the smartphone market is eating their lunch right now.

As to the argument that they only want the high end of the market, I would posit to you that they already have it - George W. Bush MISSION ACCOMPLISHED-style. People in the 3rd world don't want and can't afford an iPhone. Everyone in the US and western Europe who wants one already has one. Where is the growth going to come from?

 
Edmundo Braverman:

My AAPL at $90 crack was just to get Pat riled up. But if they're finished innovating, they may as well start loaning that cash pile out and become a bank, because everyone else in the smartphone market is eating their lunch right now.

As to the argument that they only want the high end of the market, I would posit to you that they already have it - George W. Bush MISSION ACCOMPLISHED-style. People in the 3rd world don't want and can't afford an iPhone. Everyone in the US and western Europe who wants one already has one. Where is the growth going to come from?

Apple's growth is almost over. They will grow when they get the China Mobile deal, but after that, iPhones sales will probably reach a plateau. But they will still sell 100 million of those babies per year, for years to come. I don't see a problem with Apple not growing anymore, they are not priced for growth. Quite the contrary, they are priced for shrinking profits. If they were priced with a ridiculous P/E ratio, like Amazon, then that would be an issue. Worst case scenario, they don't grow and they just pay a nice dividend year over year. But let's face it, it is Apple we are talking about. They will find the next big thing, or join the party in case some other company does it first. I'm optimistic about AAPL.

 

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