Assessing likelihood of acquisition after rumors

Hello,

Relatively new to equity research space in an AM.

Recently a rumor broke out on a acquisition and wanted to see how seasoned finance professionals assess the likelihood of the acquisition.

After researching, I came to conclude that the merger for company A with said Target will achieve regional market dominance (more than double the market share of runner-up but there are 2~3 other similar companies that make more economic sense than Target (geographically strategic, sub-regional efficiency, operational efficiency, relative valuation, also have big enough size to achieve market dominance - just not by the same magnitude).

  1. How do you assess the likelihood such corporate action?

  2. Is the likes of pure dominance provided by acquiring Target good enough reason for company A to move forward with the deal rather than seek out economically better substitutes?

Thank you in advance for any help!

 

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Edit: Nevermind, I read this as what to do if you were part of the acquisition, please ignore.

The only difference between Asset Management and Investment Research is assets. I generally see somebody I know on TV on Bloomberg/CNBC etc. once or twice a week. This sounds cool, until I remind myself that I see somebody I know on ESPN five days a week.
 

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