2nd Yr ER associate: what should I expect for bonus?

This is month 13 for me on the sell-side. So techically I'm a 2nd yr associate but joined on too late in CY18 to be bonus-eligible. Not going to lie, I'm good at this job and I'm the lone associate supporting one analyst with ~20 companies under coverage. Given this, we are operating near capacity and my efforts are critical to the viability of our franchise and the pace/quality of our output. In fact, we're hiring another associate in Jan. 2020 whom I will be training to do all the low-bandwidth tasks I currently do, with the idea of me launching coverage on a couple new names in the next 12mo.

The analyst I work for is highly regarded by other analysts on the Street and is a great marketer given the many relationships he has with the HF community (was at Surveyor Capital in 2016 when shit hit the fan and scores of people were blown out). We have an incredible working relationship paired with high hopes for II rankings (will be released soon), as our a priori puts/takes have been largely confirmed by the market YTD.

I make just above the median base across the ER industry and my firm is a very large bank, but middle-of-the-road in terms of research & sales/trading. To-date, I have been given zero visibility into bonus target and given the fluidity of the sell-side business model, I'm wary of extrapolating 2017/18 data on avg bonus for ER associates.

Does ANYONE have a ballpark % range to expect for bonus given the context above? I would be thrilled with 25% but for all I know it could be 50% or 10%...