Intel (INTC): Turnaround Opportunity or Market Expectations Too High?

I recently completed a full equity research report on Intel and wanted to get feedback from the community.

Going into the analysis, my primary question was whether Intel's recent share price appreciation is supported by improving fundamentals or whether investors have become overly optimistic about the company's turnaround prospects.

A few findings stood out:

• Revenue appears to have stabilized after several years of decline.
• Client Computing Group remains highly profitable and continues to generate significant operating income.
• Data Center & AI has emerged as one of the most encouraging parts of the business, with improving revenue growth and profitability.
• Intel Foundry remains the primary source of margin pressure, but losses improved from approximately $13.3B in 2024 to $10.3B in 2025.
• Despite having significantly lower margins than Nvidia, AMD, and TSMC, Intel currently trades at roughly 117x forward earnings.

The most surprising finding came from the valuation work.

My DCF incorporated a range of scenarios, including a Bull Case that assumes meaningful revenue growth, substantial margin recovery, and continued progress within Foundry. Even under those assumptions, the implied valuation remained below the current share price.

At the same time, I don't think the conclusion is simply "Intel is overvalued." The financials show legitimate signs of improvement, particularly within DCAI and Foundry. The real debate seems to be whether Intel can successfully transform Foundry from a major source of losses into a profitable manufacturing platform capable of generating attractive long-term returns.

My final recommendation was Hold / Neutral.

I'm curious how others view the situation:

Do you think the market is correctly pricing Intel's Foundry opportunity, or are investors underwriting a turnaround that has yet to be demonstrated?

Since new accounts cannot post links, the full report and valuation model can be found on my GitHub repository under:

gavinconnolly09-web → Equity-Research → Intel

I'd appreciate any feedback on the valuation assumptions, peer selection, or investment thesis.