Am I missing something here – semicap trade?
I'm a fresh grad starting work at a HF soon (not mkt. neutral). When I was at a different fund in the Summer of 2024 I came across some interesting semicap names (PLAB, ACMR) that i convinced the PM to size full. And I kind of pitched it along the lines of constrained supply, US/China AI 'arms race'. Then late in 2025 I wrote a report on semicap subsystems manufacturers (UCTT, ICHR, AEIS), which also worked out. It seemed fairly obvious to me where the next constraint would be along the supply chain but it seems a little too simple for the market to not have recognized it sooner. Like did I just miss some bear narrative/3P data that ended up not panning out and just get lucky or is it really this easy to generate alpha?
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