Are we in a recession?
I looked at market prices today and everything is telling me we are about to enter a recession. Citi is the worst bank but still about earning $7 a year and 8 pe now....all banks doing poorly. Industrials crushed. Apple around 13 pe ex-cash. Rates implying cuts in 18 months. Utilities and health care doing well for sell off.
Then I look at real world things. Close to 200k jobs created. Art Basel is booming and people are spending. Mba grads getting 160k median salaries.
The data doesn’t seem to fit the world. Whose wrong?
Consumption, output and employment all peak before a crash. Keynes was wrong.
Technically you need 2+ consecutive qtr of GDP growth 0, so not there yet but Trump is trying his hardest to get us there.
The market is actually very good at pricing in a recession, a la 2007. The yield curve is telling us we're close. Housing is a good read as well, and starts are down.
So yeah, not there yet but I think late 19 or by 2020 we will be in a recession. It's just a matter of how bad will it be.
Yeah bruh, 3.5% unemployment, 2.5% RGDP growth, inflation in check, fed raising rates, we are totally in a recession.
I’m quoting market prices. Not debating fundamentals. It seems like market pricing in mild recession occurring soon.
The data is backward looking. The market is forward looking. So either the markets perception is wrong (and it frequently is) or we are on the precipice of some economic turmoil. It's hard to predict the future.
As an aside, in the modern economy the market can be an indicator but it can also be a cause. If we have a serious amount of pain in the markets (especially in the credit space, where every company is over-leveraged), it can cause ripples through the main street economy and cause a recession.
Actually fairly easy to predict the economy. All recessions are caused by the fed hiking rates too much. That is sort of present now. Though not proven.
Are we in excessive paranoia?
Since 1960 there have been seven major recessions roughly every 7 years I get the feeling that we are being manipulated this last one was financially devastating for a lot of people it basically reset the prices of everything lower so the upper level could own even more Like the use of the partnership buying of shorts which guarantees each buyer an immediate profit ! Yet we all seem to be looking the other way severe changes have to be made I personally I'm not going to accept another recession ! I asked you to join me and tell your friends also
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