Consensus?

Do you feel that investors are chucking the concept of 'consensus' around a bit too freely? Markets are so incredibly diverse, with everyone taking a view and running a strategy of his own. How can there be a true 'consensus'? How do people define it - they take the net position (bull, neutral, bear) of the street? Perhaps differentiate between sellside and buyside consensus? For buyside consensus baked into the name, back out price-implied expectations, and the resulting expectation is the 'consensus'?

Furthermore, every fund and every stock pitch tries their utmost at building a differentiated view, in relation to the consensus. If everyone does this, then the consensus has to morph, right? Cuz investors collectively ARE the consensus, so if everyone tries to differentiate themselves from that consensus, then consensus itself becomes a 2nd-order derivation?

On differentiated views - how can you be the only one against the whole crowd? How can you simplify all views into a simple 'crowd'?

I fear that my constant search of the consensus is a behavioural bias in itself - humans (investors) constantly see false patterns and like to create theories to fit randomness, because randomness and chaos is extremely uncomfortable. Hence we have to justify it somewhat. I fear that constantly reducing markets to a 'consensus' might be an oversimplification. 

4 Comments
 
Most Helpful

Quia aspernatur deserunt et cum alias. Optio eaque deserunt nostrum quasi ad. Deleniti quia et eum ut. Voluptatem esse deserunt ut fugiat sunt. Omnis veritatis dolores nulla. Odit et quae dicta quae rerum voluptatem. Quidem et alias et nostrum rem velit sed.

Voluptas enim exercitationem occaecati velit. Sint facilis ut laboriosam ea fugiat. Alias dolor hic et.

Molestiae aut voluptatem voluptatem. Commodi sit illum autem ea mollitia magni ipsa.

Career Advancement Opportunities

May 2026 Hedge Fund

  • Point72 99.0%
  • D.E. Shaw 98.1%
  • Citadel Investment Group 97.1%
  • AQR Capital Management 96.2%
  • Magnetar Capital 95.2%

Overall Employee Satisfaction

May 2026 Hedge Fund

  • Magnetar Capital 99.0%
  • Millennium Partners 98.1%
  • D.E. Shaw 97.1%
  • Blackstone Group 96.1%
  • Citadel Investment Group 95.1%

Professional Growth Opportunities

May 2026 Hedge Fund

  • AQR Capital Management 99.1%
  • Point72 98.1%
  • D.E. Shaw 97.2%
  • Citadel Investment Group 96.2%
  • Magnetar Capital 95.3%

Total Avg Compensation

May 2026 Hedge Fund

  • Portfolio Manager (9) $1,648
  • Vice President (27) $464
  • Director/MD (12) $423
  • NA (9) $320
  • Engineer/Quant (86) $288
  • 3rd+ Year Associate (26) $284
  • Manager (4) $282
  • 2nd Year Associate (32) $253
  • 1st Year Associate (76) $192
  • Analysts (240) $181
  • Intern/Summer Associate (28) $146
  • Junior Trader (5) $102
  • Intern/Summer Analyst (282) $96
notes
16 IB Interviews Notes

“... there’s no excuse to not take advantage of the resources out there available to you. Best value for your $ are the...”

Leaderboard

1
redever's picture
redever
99.2
2
kanon's picture
kanon
99.0
3
Secyh62's picture
Secyh62
99.0
4
BankonBanking's picture
BankonBanking
99.0
5
DrApeman's picture
DrApeman
98.9
6
Betsy Massar's picture
Betsy Massar
98.9
7
CompBanker's picture
CompBanker
98.9
8
dosk17's picture
dosk17
98.9
9
GameTheory's picture
GameTheory
98.9
10
Jamoldo's picture
Jamoldo
98.8
success
From 10 rejections to 1 dream investment banking internship

“... I believe it was the single biggest reason why I ended up with an offer...”