Good/bad investment theses
Anyone have a library of good vs. bad investment theses?
Examples of good investment theses: good thematic trade, will attract flows, accelerating top line, LOs need to buy, chart breaking out/consolidating but coiled, data showing inflection
Bad investment theses: stock is "cheap", "good business", "its priced in" but chart looks like shit, "low downside" even though company is about to miss cut numbers
So your idea of a good investment thesis doesn't consider the quality of the underlying business?
Yeah fuck good businesses man. All these capitalists trying to get you to invest in their novel ideas with durable advantages, what’s up with that?
What happened to just buy momo?
momo, fomo, ohno
Good: ai
Bad: not ai
Low downside into a cut, so long as you believe the underlying structural is picking back up and sequential print can push it back up is a great pick…if the guide down is priced and you don’t see it getting worse, that’s a good r/r so long as you have a catalyst for the upside
This is an extremely subjective topic. What you have defined above is good & bad in your terms, as you view it. Over the years, I have met PMs who judge how good a thesis is by it's level of sophistry, and those that judge by the level of simplicity. Some want you to put out all the breakout charts etc that you mention while others wanted the thesis explained in two pages at most.
You could literally create a good thesis on the sovereign debt of Ghana and a bad pitch on NVDA, it all depends on who is reading it. Personally, I consider anything that answers all the questions and acts as a good primer for the security a good pitch, that is criteria one, the second would be how it performs. Good pitches can have bad performance and vice versa.
bud in another forum you claimed to be a student at a non-target, what the fuck do you mean "over the years" are we talking about middle school or high school?
Yes, I am a student at a non-target. And yes, by over the year I do mean High School. I'm about to graduate so it's been ~6 years since I've actively pursued equities. By over the years, I mean I have networked well and know a few PMs, both at SMs and at MMs, I used to cold email my pitches to them, I still do to some extent. I must say, quite the humbling experience, taking their advice I have grown as an investor over the years. By no means do I consider myself a good one, but I am exponentially better than the naive high school kid I was pitching AAPL.
On another note, I did network rabidly, for all I know we might as well know each other.
everything you think is bad is actually good and everything you think is good is actually bad
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