Trump tariffs
He wont back out as Greenland is his special interest.
I think a flight to safety is likely but how much will the S&P 500 drop?
1.5%? 2%? 3%? What do y'all think?
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Doubt it'll be a huge reaction from markets. Time and time again, the markets have shown that Trumps tariffs don't bother them.
What will be more concerning is the EU's response.
But surely the market will price in this concern about the EU and the EU's response including the use of the 'bazooka'. The markets did care about trumps original (chatGPT calculated) tariffs its just that he backed off after realising Wall St. was crumbling and furious due to his actions
Also the markets showed a huge sensitivity to trumps original tariffs and he is dead set on getting Greeland.
Markets will shake a little on open, but the general idea of the markets is "Nothing happens until something happens" why price in the potential of massive drops through something like this if it's an unlikely scenario?(not saying I agree with that thought process, I think it's poor risk management but I don't run wall street)
TACO
Yes but surely markets will still fall until he backs off.
The rest of the worlds markets responded to his Tariff threat, despite knowing TACO is a thing
You realize futures have been trading since Sunday night, right?
Yes but futures never line up with reality. But they are down 0.91%, so lets see if that is what happens
Its down ~1% today ( 1/20 ) but im sure tomorrow when he actually speaks and talks about what his plan of action is it will be another 1% percent drop. But the price action in metal I feel are an exaggeration for a 1% drop. same with the 10 year nearing 4.3% I feel like its just noise but for sure tomorrow cause of Mr. President speaking and then the hearing on Lisa Cooks court case there is no way nothing moves.
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