I’m sorry, but you being successful here has to do more with luck than anything else
You know that shitty feeling when a position blows up in your face and you did all of the diligence, research, analysis etc you could possibly do but it didn’t work out, guess what, it sucks to suck. It could’ve just of easily went the other way and your P&L could be shining gold, but nope, that’s not what life wanted.
Regardless of how things actually are, thinking that people succeed only because of luck is very toxic and will lead to you not becoming successful. In a study of self made millionaires, a much higher percentage than average people responded that they were in control of their own life.
Kylie Jenner describes herself as being "self-made" and am sure would respond that she is "in control of her life". Financial success demands luck - disagreeing with this reality is can be boiled down to delusional arrogance. This is only more true for those that have made their riches in the public markets, where sentiment- and emotion-driven swings in the market build empires. I know we all like to think we're so smart and special, but very few are. Tim Reynolds? Brilliant, probably more in control than most. Julian Robertson? A beneficiary of an irrational priced tech market. Smart? Yes. Lucky? You got it.
I am jealous of Kylie Jenner. Not because she’s hot or successful, or supposedly a billionaire. I’m jealous of her because I want Travis Scott to go all SICKO MODE and IMPREGNATE ME.
Bro you need to hop back on the lithium lmao been hella sus lately
Man, this is BS. Everyone successful I know in this industry is obsessed with process, not outcomes. They all know how big a factor luck plays and just set them selves up to be as lucky as possible. Most people like to claim credit for their successes and blame others for failures-- so obviously people who are successful are more likely to claim control over their own lives.
Being successful in public equities IS entirely luck though lol
It sucks when you try your best and don’t succeed though, that’s a terrible feeling but it’s just part of life.
exactly :(
"It could've just of easily went the other way", that's a poor trade then
Nope, this was an highly asymmetric risk-reward position, and I still got hosed
sounds like it was highly asymmetric to the downside
You didn’t understand something about the trade. Rather than chalk it up to bad luck, figure out why you read it wrong and use that to not make the same mistake again and apply it to all your future trades... nothings 100% but please. Luck favors hard work.
Don't get emotional about a trade, understand that as public market investors we will always be working with imperfect information and there will always be holes in what we know. Investing is always about probabilities, and probabilities are always at least two sided; there are no 100% outcomes in this business. Focus on your process and recognize that even if your process was strong, sometimes the lessor probabilities come to fruition. A strong process is repeatable, and as long as you size your risk correctly, all you have to do is be right more than you are wrong to make money and have longevity in this business. You had one go the wrong way, fine, that was yesterday. There is nothing you can do about yesterday. What is most important is what you do tomorrow; how do you move forward from here?
THanks for the encouraging words. just sucks when you put heart and soul into the work and it doesn't work the way you want it, no matter how asymmetric the bet was
If you think it’s always luck you’ll never succeed, if you think it’s never luck you’ll most likely fail.
I find that this belief in luck can be tied to self confidence and arrogance. Believing that others got lucky gives you a “free pass” to not think about tough issues, I.e. maybe you aren’t good enough, smart enough, or maybe you didn’t do enough work. While thinking that it’s all you and no luck has the opposite issue but same risks, you think you’ve done everything right so you don’t critically analyze your work, etc.
The best people I’ve found have a healthy balance; being confident enough to make decisions and enjoy/get the credit while also never being satisfied and rigorously analyzing their successes as well as their failures/misses. In trades specifically, you need to make sure you can understand why things went your way or didn’t, because as you said, sometimes you get lucky and you need to be able to learn from that as well.
In markets, this is correct. I've seen the smartest people that I've ever met get blown up in their hedge funds.
In life in general, while luck does apply, it is not the primary determing factor.
yup, tons of funds that are no-names and have been around decades and are compounding at insane IRRs;
Everyone here talking down luck probably has limited experience. Rather be lucky than smart or diligent or whatever. Read Success Equation. In pro sports, as in elite investing, everyone's skill is so high that luck becomes the differentiating factor.
Hard work just removes a source of error.
market is HIGHLY efficient
If you think that, maybe that's why it went wrong kid. I can't see how an active investor can operate in public markets and believe the efficient market hypothesis.
Unless what you say is sarcastic. Then, yeah, I agree it's not efficient. I do however think the investment analyst posting above is overestimating the skill of other market participants. I'd also rather be lucky than smart, but unfortunately I can't choose to be lucky, so I have to put all the effort I can into being smarter.
I mean, what do you define as successful? A 100% return every year or beating the market by a point?
Being successful as in you make a living at what you do, that's all about hard work. Becoming the best at things is a lot of times luck, but it depends on each field. For example, I think Tiger Woods is one of the best golfers ever, but thats more hard work than luck. Contrasting, say someone like Brad Pitt, prob really works on his craft, but I'm sure there are guys waiting tables who are close to his level, just don't have the opportunity.
If you can earn 1% above the market on a consistent basis net of fees, you are INSANELY successful...
True...technically if you earned 1% above the market you'd be the market.
https://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/15/magazine/15wwlnidealab.t.html
Luck is preparation meeting opportunity so yeah, anyone who succeeds in literally anything is in some form or fashion lucky. Congrats, you've stated the obvious.
Well, everyone will have positions that go wrong. The key is to look at success as a long term event (not a one-off event). Everyone has failures. Many hedge fund managers lose money in their first couple of years in the industry. Success is the result of constant persistence through many different challenges and learning from the failures that happen. Success is a long term outcome of many different failures along the way. It is not a one-off thing.
yup. it just hurts man when you fail. both emotionally and financially in this case lol
I find the harder I work the luckier I get
i feel like you post here every quarter about something blowing up
lol how do i still have a job actually
You need luck and hard work/skill to succeed. Hard work and skill are necessary for success, but not sufficient. There’s always some factor of luck at play. You’re a player in a game with 7 billion other players, and the cumulative impact of their actions can sometimes have a greater role in your success than your own actions.
I'm firmly of the belief that luck skews your way when you take the necessary steps required to get what you want. Yes you can luck into something which you didn't really give a shit about but in life, I've seen, when you put in the due process for what you're aiming for luck will eventually find its way to you. Never stop the grind
If you say “I’m sorry, but...” it means your opinion isn’t worth listening to.
Have some courage in your convictions. Don’t apologise for your opinion.
Hey it's Pizz again.
Love the progression of your comments & threads over time haha.
Which HF did you end up choosing? Start-up or established? Did you become rich?
These mistakes are often the most rewarding. Happens to everyone. Take the pain, learn and move on.
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