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We will set aside the pods because that's a different ballgame. But if you are talking about the ~typical~ single manager, you are most likely talking about evaluating investments on how they setup on a 2-3y IRR (eg my target price at YE25 using a multipe of fwd earnings at that time). Even with this framework, you are likely not going to be holding to that date for a variety of reasons including (non-exhaustive):

  • Your thesis is not playing out
  • The market view has fully (or partially) converged with your view and the stock is closer to your target price > at this point the risk/reward has a worse skew than it did before and you should probably be trimming / exiting 
  • The stock has rallied on items unrelated to your thesis, but the risk/reward skew point still stands
  • Your thesis played out but it turns out that's not what mattered for the stock
 
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No offense but these questions are dumb AF.

It’s like saying on average how long do you date someone? You date until you get married, realize it is not a good fit, or they cheat on you. No one says oh I’m going to date for six months or two years.
You own the stock until thesis wrong, thesis confirmed and stock hits target, or something better shows up. 

 

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