How much of success in this career is just luck
I am an analyst at one of the mid-sized multi-bn SMs. Recently was informed that I will be getting that promotion, the one to the terminal level at my fund. My day-to-day responsibilities won’t change too much and I am very content with that. I love what I do. However this will set a very high baseline for my comp. No one who ever gets this promotion leaves or is pushed out where I work and it’s very cushy. I feel incredibly grateful but also have been reflecting a lot on what brought me here.
I wasn’t the sharpest kid going into finance at my school. I wasn’t the best analyst in my banking group. I didn’t get the most prestigious buyside offer out of banking. (Although I would contend I was top decile in each of these)
When I reflect on it, It has just come down to knowing the right people at the right time. This and this alone has resulted in n=1 outcomes for me. So often in my career, kids have asked me for advice on what I did right or how to follow in my steps. I never realized it, by my answer to them has always been some variation of “I just got really lucky in a 1 of 1 situation so I can’t really help you.” So many things had to align for me to be in the position I am in today. If I was anyone but myself, it never would have worked out.
To be transparent, I do believe you can generate alpha in this industry. That’s not the “luck” I am talking about. I am talking about luck in regards to the firms I have been able to work at, the mentors I have been able to learn under, and these opportunities all being available at the exact times that I needed them.
Success in this career is often a mix of skill, timing, and luck, and your reflection aligns with some of the most insightful discussions on WSO. Here's what stands out:
Luck and Timing: Many professionals acknowledge that luck plays a significant role in career trajectories. As highlighted in WSO threads, timing—being in the right place at the right moment—can open doors that skill alone might not. For example, one individual shared how they "lucked into" a BB role because someone else reneged late in the process, leading to an unexpected offer. Another avoided layoffs simply because they had just transitioned to a new group. These stories emphasize how external factors, often beyond control, can shape outcomes.
Relationships and Mentorship: Building strong relationships and finding mentors is a recurring theme in career success. As noted in WSO discussions, mentors who believe in you and are willing to take a chance on you can be transformative. Your acknowledgment of the mentors and networks that shaped your path underscores this point.
Skill and Consistency: While luck and timing are crucial, they often intersect with preparation and consistent effort. As one WSO contributor put it, "More than half the battle is simply showing up, doing the work, and building relationships." Your ability to perform at a high level (top decile in various stages) likely positioned you to capitalize on the opportunities that came your way.
Non-Linear Paths: Careers in finance are rarely linear. WSO threads frequently highlight how setbacks, pivots, and unexpected opportunities define long-term success. Your journey reflects this reality, where a combination of effort, adaptability, and fortunate circumstances led to your current position.
Ultimately, while luck and timing are undeniable factors, they often favor those who are prepared, adaptable, and persistent. Your story is a testament to how these elements intertwine to create unique career outcomes.
Sources: 10 years in banking, tech, and consulting, Some thoughts about luck in your career, Are you guys happy with life? Help me please., Some thoughts about luck in your career
Doesn’t have to be either, or. Just because you can recognize that everyone is subject to X% of random chance in their careers doesn’t mean you have no nuggets of knowledge you can share with prospects. I find very successful people tend to downplay the extremity of effort they put in to be in top decile scenarios. You did not fluff your way through your banking stint, nor did you skate by your buyside interview loop, or just so happened to do well at your fund to be offered a terminal role. Maybe it was kinda “easy” for you so you don’t recognize the effort, but it’s material (even the effort in knowing and building relationships with the right people) to those 5 years behind you. A mountain still has to be climbed and it’d be disingenuous to suggest you just had a helicopter ride to the top!
Anyway, yes no matter how talented you are, your outcome in life is not 100% due to your own effort and work. Some call it chance, luck, God, karma whatever, but it’s good to recognize this fact and be honest with those coming up behind you. We can impact how “lucky” we are or how many “lucky” positions we end up in though , that’s where the real good advice can begin.
In my naivety, I wanted to get into public equities precisely because I thought it was the area of finance least influenced by luck. I believed that as long as you could develop an edge and consistently make money, you would generally be fine. I was woefully mistaken.
Getting into the right seat early in your career matters far more than I initially understood. I assumed that once you landed at a high-quality firm, much like starting in investment banking at JPM, GS, or MS, you were set. Future employers would value experience at a top quality organization presuming you could demonstrate your competence and investment process during the interview process.
What I failed to appreciate was how extraordinarily, sometimes almost absurdly, specific PMs are when hiring. They want someone who covers exactly the right sector, uses a compatible investment process, and is at precisely the right stage of their career. Your ability to make money through good calls can feel almost secondary. What they often really want is someone who can support their existing process, in the exact role they need filled, at the right price.
PMs who are less particular, often because they are hiring for a sector they do not know well themselves, tend to rely more heavily on pedigree and years of experience as proxies for whether you will succeed on their team. But to accumulate those years of experience, you first need to land somewhere willing to tolerate the learning curve that every professional investor inevitably goes through.
That is where luck matters so much. You need the right seat at the right time.
So what is the best course of action for someone whose first buy side seat was much worse than expected and is now “stuck”?
You’re never stuck. You are just not trying hard enough to pivot.
You create your own luck to some extent
Being in the right place at the right time is luck. Making the right move when you're in that situation is the skill that drives right tail outcomes.
Over time you get better at spotting those opportunities and exploiting them and eventually you're able to create them yourself.
“The better I play, the luckier I get”
- Efren Reyes, billiards legend
more comes down to luck in life than people would like to admit. You could've been born in a landlocked African country
Whats wrong with Botswana bro
Yes, it's luck, but not all luck is equal. One realization is that you have much more control over some types of luck than others. There is generally agreed to be four types of luck:
Wikipedia gives a more "academic" view on luck,
so at the end, when you filter lots of "success" stories, it's all luck, but the elephant worth addressing is whether the person proactively increased the chances on some types of luck which were under his control
because sure, constitutional luck, such as the place where you are born does not prevent you making it completely irrelevant down the road if you become hyper focused on "luck from motion" (e.g., guy studies hard, goes for an MBA, networks his ass off, and manages to become C-Suite in a better country)
luck from “awareness” hmmm… well someone wasnt really aware of their luck in the last few days
“To be successful at anything, the truth is you don't have to be special. You just have to be what most people aren't: consistent, determined and willing to work for it” - TB
“To be successful at anything, the truth is you don't have to be special. You just have to be what most people aren't: consistent, determined, willing to work for it, and born in the right circumstances” - TB
Fixed that for you.
Can I PM? Would like to get your thoughts on my background as I'm dealing with something similar.
so much of it. so little of this separated my outcome from something much more mediocre but equally much better.
I’ve worked with quite a few very successful HF PMs. A few common traits:
- extremely impressive ability to multi task or juggle a lot of stuff
- ability understand a lot of complicated stuff very quickly, or at least boil it down
- not just good at managing a book, but also people, risk, politics, marketing, etc
- very good at figuring out a few key thing(s) that matter and question it or be right about it
- generally extreme work ethic
- the key thing obviously is just being right surprisingly often: maybe it’s luck, or skill, or experience, or intuition, or intelligence, or process, or stumbling on a strategy, or memory, or knack, or putting in the work, plus confidence.
I don’t know
So the more I’ve seen it, I’ve seen patterns and similarities.
Yea a lot of it still seems like luck. But there’s a lot that can help set you up to be luckier than most.
And also, they have high risk tolerance , and eagerness to take risk.
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