Some thoughts about luck in your career

VP in PE - LBOs

I don't post much here and don't have a very eloquent post planned out, but thought I'd share a few stories about myself and friends and peers of mine. The mood on this forum has been very dour over the last few weeks so hope that this can put things into perspective.

What I'm trying to get across is that you should try your hardest right after school, but keep in mind that your career will unfold over time and you should always be on the lookout for new opportunities if things don't work out the way you wanted them to. Apologies in advance for the rambling post -- I'm not the best writer and this is all coming out stream of consciousness. 

1. Friend of mine went to the ultimate non-target school. A small private school in a small town in a shitty state that I guarantee none of you had ever heard of. He majored in accounting and thought he'd be happy getting a job as a bookkeeper at some local accounting firm. Through an accounting internship (not big four) his junior year, was introduced to a very small hedge fund (<$100mm in assets) that they did the books for. Managed to turn that into a full time job, where he made <$100k basically doing whatever this guy wanted. The HF manager was kind of a joker and honestly felt more lucky than good, but he started looking at a lot of tech names so my buddy got pretty conversant in the big players (this was a few years post-GFC). He managed to use that experience to get a role at a small sellside advisors focusing on tech in the Silicon Valley before getting approached by a recruiter for a BB's tech group just as the market was about to boom. He started as a first year analyst in his mid/late 20s, but excelled in the role, got a job at a tech MF, and just made partner. He's had a couple of big exits already (although to be fair, I bet his portfolio's hurting now) and has probably made more money than the rest of his college graduating class combined. 

2. Another friend worked at a BB, but honestly lucked into the job. He actually was dinged after the super day, but because someone else reneged late in the process, they called him up and gave him an offer which he accepted. He would be the first to admit that he was a much weaker candidate than everyone else there, and it carried over into PE recruiting, where he struck out across the board (MF, LMM, corp dev, etc.). Managed to get a job as an FP&A analyst at a PE-backed industrial company where he did just fine, before the VP of finance (who also led M&A) quit. The company was aggressively looking at add-ons, so they just promoted my buddy to VP of finance, doubled his cash comp, gave him a bunch of profits interests, and threw him to the wolves on executing M&A. Long story short, he killed it, got a bunch of deals done, successfully exited, and is now on his second CFO stint at a PE-backed company (was referred via a warm intro from his previous firm). He has great WLB, loves his job, gets paid quite well, and can basically waltz into any PE portco role he wants since he's got such a great track record. 

3. I personally worked at a lower tier BB in a mediocre group and, similar to my buddy above, struck out on PE recruiting and ended up at a no-name LMM firm focused on a specific niche. It was a fine job, but always felt like I was capable of a lot more. I eventually applied to MBA school (this would've been to graduate in 2023) but was dinged across the board from the M7 despite having pretty decent stats and a GMAT score, so I stuck around at my fund. I ended up taking advantage of the hottest lateral market in decades to get a VP role at a UMM fund that I didn't even get an interview at as an analyst. Meanwhile, everyone I know that's graduating MBA school this summer is scrambling to find jobs in PE since hiring has been completely shut down -- if I'd gone to business school, I'm almost certain I wouldn't have come close to sniffing the job that I have now. 

Great reflection on how there's not one uniform "golden path" to success in the context of a long and winding career. 

Great post. While i'm still young in my career, i've also gotten very lucky at points. came from a small town and lucked out and got into a top school off the waitlist. Didn't put in any effort into school but lucked out with the classes I took and somehow graduated top of my class in a "hard" major (trust me i'm actually not smart i just happened to pick the right classes).

was terrible at interviewing for IB roles, got a lower tier BB offer (UBS/DB/CS) off the waitlist because a spot opened up in December wayyy after recruiting ended for my school where we were a target from because they didn't fill all the non-target spots. really hated my group though and gave up in terms of effort after 2 months and then lateraled to a top group at a top BB. the group i was previously at did a ton of layoffs that also hit analysts that I was spared from because I had just left. Would have definitely gotten the axe 

Looking back at it, i've done so well and so much of it was just dumb luck and good timing

I’m in my 40s.

More than half the battle is simply showing up, doing the work and building relationships. It took me far too long to realize being the smartest or hardest working doesn’t mean shit unless you’re working for yourself. 

In my late 20s now. Want to share a couple of stories where back luck trumped good luck.

1. I got laid off from my first job when I was 5 months in. It was heart-breaking. What's even worse is I'm international. The visa thing sucks. I'm using the present tense because it still sucks.

2. I left the US after living there for 7 years. Literally didn't know what I could do back home in China, and somehow got a "product manager" job at a big crypto exchange. I was desperate for something to pay bills. Then the company almost went busted when cops raided the head office in Beijing. It was a wild story. The CEO himself, along with all other senior managers, were (I think still are) banned from leaving the country because the exchange was (probably still is) involved in a ton of money laundering schemes. 

3. Through a remote, just remote connection, I got into an ostentatiously reputable, but actually really shitty investment bank that somehow did some high-profile deals in the China Mainland/HK region. Later, I learned that there's this MD who's extremely well-connected and s/he single-handedly pulled in those high-profile deals and probably took >80% of deal fees

4. The company is a sinking ship after a giant net loss. The toxic, bureaucratic culture, the inept seniors, the clueless mid-level VPs, and just terrible senior management, all contributed to this mess. 

5. More than a year ago, I interviewed for a $5bn L/S equity HF here in Beijing. That fund is both well-known and well-liked because of its culture and performance. The CFO/COO really liked me. He said he'd love to hire me, and put me through to the next round before I left the office. The next, and probably the final round, was with the founder. Unfortunately, founder ran into an accident when he was camping, and stayed in ICU for I think 2 weeks. Later, the fund performance plummeted. They went on a hiring freeze, and later when they started to hire again, it was a specialist job in biotech/pharma.  

Despite a solid foundation, a fantastic modeling skillset (for example, I finished a 5-hour model test in ~2.5 hours and passed), I am not getting looked at because I am not getting any deal exp at current place. I interviewed with a couple of other banks, but it was way too clear that a pure coverage group with no execution killed me. The job market is terrible now in China. I do not know what to do. I chose the wrong company, and I felt like my career is dead now. 

Now:

Looking back, I probably made some bad decisions. I got emotional, afraid, upset, and angry. However, I really didn't know what I could do given my rather limited options. 

I hope it gets better soon. 

3.