Some thoughts about luck in your career

VP in PE - LBOs

I don't post much here and don't have a very eloquent post planned out, but thought I'd share a few stories about myself and friends and peers of mine. The mood on this forum has been very dour over the last few weeks so hope that this can put things into perspective.

What I'm trying to get across is that you should try your hardest right after school, but keep in mind that your career will unfold over time and you should always be on the lookout for new opportunities if things don't work out the way you wanted them to. Apologies in advance for the rambling post -- I'm not the best writer and this is all coming out stream of consciousness. 

1. Friend of mine went to the ultimate non-target school. A small private school in a small town in a shitty state that I guarantee none of you had ever heard of. He majored in accounting and thought he'd be happy getting a job as a bookkeeper at some local accounting firm. Through an accounting internship (not big four) his junior year, was introduced to a very small hedge fund (<$100mm in assets) that they did the books for. Managed to turn that into a full time job, where he made <$100k basically doing whatever this guy wanted. The HF manager was kind of a joker and honestly felt more lucky than good, but he started looking at a lot of tech names so my buddy got pretty conversant in the big players (this was a few years post-GFC). He managed to use that experience to get a role at a small sellside advisors focusing on tech in the Silicon Valley before getting approached by a recruiter for a BB's tech group just as the market was about to boom. He started as a first year analyst in his mid/late 20s, but excelled in the role, got a job at a tech MF, and just made partner. He's had a couple of big exits already (although to be fair, I bet his portfolio's hurting now) and has probably made more money than the rest of his college graduating class combined. 

2. Another friend worked at a BB, but honestly lucked into the job. He actually was dinged after the super day, but because someone else reneged late in the process, they called him up and gave him an offer which he accepted. He would be the first to admit that he was a much weaker candidate than everyone else there, and it carried over into PE recruiting, where he struck out across the board (MF, LMM, corp dev, etc.). Managed to get a job as an FP&A analyst at a PE-backed industrial company where he did just fine, before the VP of finance (who also led M&A) quit. The company was aggressively looking at add-ons, so they just promoted my buddy to VP of finance, doubled his cash comp, gave him a bunch of profits interests, and threw him to the wolves on executing M&A. Long story short, he killed it, got a bunch of deals done, successfully exited, and is now on his second CFO stint at a PE-backed company (was referred via a warm intro from his previous firm). He has great WLB, loves his job, gets paid quite well, and can basically waltz into any PE portco role he wants since he's got such a great track record. 

3. I personally worked at a lower tier BB in a mediocre group and, similar to my buddy above, struck out on PE recruiting and ended up at a no-name LMM firm focused on a specific niche. It was a fine job, but always felt like I was capable of a lot more. I eventually applied to MBA school (this would've been to graduate in 2023) but was dinged across the board from the M7 despite having pretty decent stats and a GMAT score, so I stuck around at my fund. I ended up taking advantage of the hottest lateral market in decades to get a VP role at a UMM fund that I didn't even get an interview at as an analyst. Meanwhile, everyone I know that's graduating MBA school this summer is scrambling to find jobs in PE since hiring has been completely shut down -- if I'd gone to business school, I'm almost certain I wouldn't have come close to sniffing the job that I have now. 

Great reflection on how there's not one uniform "golden path" to success in the context of a long and winding career. 

Great post. While i'm still young in my career, i've also gotten very lucky at points. came from a small town and lucked out and got into a top school off the waitlist. Didn't put in any effort into school but lucked out with the classes I took and somehow graduated top of my class in a "hard" major (trust me i'm actually not smart i just happened to pick the right classes).

was terrible at interviewing for IB roles, got a lower tier BB offer (UBS/DB/CS) off the waitlist because a spot opened up in December wayyy after recruiting ended for my school where we were a target from because they didn't fill all the non-target spots. really hated my group though and gave up in terms of effort after 2 months and then lateraled to a top group at a top BB. the group i was previously at did a ton of layoffs that also hit analysts that I was spared from because I had just left. Would have definitely gotten the axe 

Looking back at it, i've done so well and so much of it was just dumb luck and good timing

My luck so far has been Credit Suisse shitting itself :D

Survivor's bias I guess

Great stuff. Lesson gleaned could be persistent, and don't give up hope just because he didn't start off on step one of your "dream path." 

I have seen high highs and low lows in my 20+ year career. Not only for me but for nearly all my peers.

Probably the best summation is something Scott Galloway often says. "Things are rarely as bad or as good as they seem".

Now given that wisdom - how should you approach your career?

When things are bad, and the wind is in your face, as it's about to be for many of us, don't give up and keep your head up. Know that better days will soon come - don't let it affect your self confidence. Just put in your best effort and navigate through as best you can.

When the wind is completely at our back and you're killing it - don't get over confident and don't think the good days will last forever. Be prudent in keeping your spending in check, and keep grinding. When you stop grinding you get fat, lazy and vulnerable for when the wind turns into your face. When you think the good times will never end - your risk management gets very bad.

I’m in my 40s.

More than half the battle is simply showing up, doing the work and building relationships. It took me far too long to realize being the smartest or hardest working doesn’t mean shit unless you’re working for yourself. 

In my late 20s now. Want to share a couple of stories where back luck trumped good luck.

1. I got laid off from my first job when I was 5 months in. It was heart-breaking. What's even worse is I'm international. The visa thing sucks. I'm using the present tense because it still sucks.

2. I left the US after living there for 7 years. Literally didn't know what I could do back home in China, and somehow got a "product manager" job at a big crypto exchange. I was desperate for something to pay bills. Then the company almost went busted when cops raided the head office in Beijing. It was a wild story. The CEO himself, along with all other senior managers, were (I think still are) banned from leaving the country because the exchange was (probably still is) involved in a ton of money laundering schemes. 

3. Through a remote, just remote connection, I got into an ostentatiously reputable, but actually really shitty investment bank that somehow did some high-profile deals in the China Mainland/HK region. Later, I learned that there's this MD who's extremely well-connected and s/he single-handedly pulled in those high-profile deals and probably took >80% of deal fees

4. The company is a sinking ship after a giant net loss. The toxic, bureaucratic culture, the inept seniors, the clueless mid-level VPs, and just terrible senior management, all contributed to this mess. 

5. More than a year ago, I interviewed for a $5bn L/S equity HF here in Beijing. That fund is both well-known and well-liked because of its culture and performance. The CFO/COO really liked me. He said he'd love to hire me, and put me through to the next round before I left the office. The next, and probably the final round, was with the founder. Unfortunately, founder ran into an accident when he was camping, and stayed in ICU for I think 2 weeks. Later, the fund performance plummeted. They went on a hiring freeze, and later when they started to hire again, it was a specialist job in biotech/pharma.  

Despite a solid foundation, a fantastic modeling skillset (for example, I finished a 5-hour model test in ~2.5 hours and passed), I am not getting looked at because I am not getting any deal exp at current place. I interviewed with a couple of other banks, but it was way too clear that a pure coverage group with no execution killed me. The job market is terrible now in China. I do not know what to do. I chose the wrong company, and I felt like my career is dead now. 

Now:

Looking back, I probably made some bad decisions. I got emotional, afraid, upset, and angry. However, I really didn't know what I could do given my rather limited options. 

I hope it gets better soon. 

3. 

I have been stupid and lucky too:

• I interned for a financial institution in high school and literally turned down more opportunities to intern there to study for SAT "LOL" and I never studied for SAT to begin with.. Also procrastinated for the college process and got accepted only into Baruch and Hunter. My admission for Baruch was unfortunately through the SEEK program, which catered to students that needed educational aid to get to the college level. I was beyond furious because I was taking Calculus in HS and through SEEK I would have to spend the summer before college taking remedial math and english. I regret not doing this program because Seek students get priority for picking classes, mentors, and many other resources. 
• After two years at Hunter I hated it so much I considered dropping out. My GPA was probably at the lowest threshold to get into Baruch, and luckily I broke in.
• At Baruch I was taking 7 classes a semester to graduate on time because Cuny classes don't transfer over. Apparently, the literature department at Baruch, a business college, does not recognize literature classes at Hunter, a well known liberal arts school within Cuny.. Go figure.. I didn't have the best gpa and landed an internship for the government. Unfortunately, my parents needed help financially and my job wasn't going to cut it
• At the last second I secured a job at a French Bank as a full time intern, which paid poorly but would provide me more than enough to help out my parents. Ft internship ended a year later, I did not like the role, my coworkers noticed too, there was a rough culture, and so was unemployed.
• Unemployment was the best and worst time of my life. I explored different hobbies and was the most muscular I've ever been. However, cash was running out, parents needed help, and I kept on getting rejected in the last stage of interviews. Also barely passed CFA Level 1 while running on 2 hours of sleep.
• Checking linkedin one day I saw a posting for a credit rating agency I had interviewed for a while back and did not get. I quickly emailed one of the interviewers I vibed with and within the week I ended up getting the job. My parent's and I were saved! 
• After being at a rating agency for some time, I was looking to lateral to banking. My school's name wasn't good enough, and my unemployment between the french bank and rating agency was challenging to get over. Interviewers would assume I couldn't hack it at a bank. Was opportunistically interviewing for 3.5 years and finally landed at a European firm that gave me a significant pay bump in base salary. I love the work, and it's incredible how many looks I'm getting for job opportunities.
• My lesson to those unemployed right now is to be pushy, because you never know if you don't try. Leave the ego at the door. Don't be desperate, but don't be ashamed to follow up on something or with someone if you see an opportunity.

At a non target and recruiting was almost coming to an end (October) one of my last interviews at a BB. Interviewer ended up being from the same country as me(ethnic background) and it’s very rare for people from xyz country to work in IBD let alone a white collar job very rare like .00001% chance, 2nd luck, ended up being staffed with someone who was from a non target during my summer internship and they pretty much looked out for me and got my return.

still waiting to "get lucky"............

The harder I’ve worked the more luck I’ve seemingly encountered. However, I’ve had unlucky shit happen. I’ve been laid off and comp cut before. I’ve received bonuses out of nowhere.

There’s always grass is greener mentality, but if you’re unhappy in a situation, don’t just accept it. If you believe you have a skill set that isn’t valued, leave. Just know it’s not always sunshine and rainbows

EDIT

I shared this in an old AMA, but I 100% credit where I am to a # of lucky breaks throughout my career.

"Lucky to have some older guys on my sports team in college who were pursuing careers in high finance who helped guide me in the right direction. Lucky to connect with some alums in the industry who were invaluable in helping me prep for interviews. Lucky to be placed in the group that I'm in now (great group of people, supportive throughout interview process, etc.). Lucky the multi family office just happened to be looking for a near-term / immediate hire."

Since then, luck has continued to have a big role in my career path. On the negative side, yeah I was really unlucky that the family office I joined ended up hired a CIO who completely changed the team's culture and investment philosophy. On the positive side though, joined the startup I was at because a former colleague's good friend from college's good friend (lol) was building out their finance team, and so I ended up getting a warm intro to help me break into the startup world. After a couple years at the startup I realized I wanted to switch back to investing. Was catching up with a banker friend for coffee one day, and he intro'd me to a contact of his that he thought I would get along well with. That guy happened to be interviewing at my current shop but didn't think it was a good fit for him due to location and industry focus, but knew with my background and what I was looking for that it could be a really good fit - I was lucky that he intro'd me to the MD leading the search, I interviewed, then boom, back in PE. 

It's pretty crazy when you think about how perfectly things have to line up for things to work out sometimes. Yes, working hard and putting in the time and effort to be a great colleague where people want to refer you, and prepping properly for interviews goes a long way, but so much of what happens otherwise is completely out of one's control. Definitely very grateful for all the people along the way who have been generous enough to think of me for these opportunities.

I told an EB I had an offer from another firm to pressure them into giving me a decision and I got lucky and it worked 💀

Struck out on conventional recruiting. Had one role open up in Feb of junior year at a shop I thought I had 0 chance of. Got through the first round of interviews without really even knowing what the firm actually was. Super day, by dumb luck the first girl was from my hometown and knew a lot of people I did. Now I’m in a role I never thought I’d get.

Ppp

I am sure a lot of people like me were glad they didn't get an SA/FT offer at Credit Suisse, since I would have taken it. Luckily ended up at a comparable BB and won't have to spend the rest of college worrying about getting laid-off/no return offer

I feel like I've actually had a spate of bad luck so far in my career, and I'm definitely hoping it'll turn around. Like, I was diagnosed with a major disability and my mom got cancer, so I ended up signing with a well known, but not as great, bank that was a bit closer to my home town to be close to my family. Then I got a FT super day with a top 3 bank but due to hiring reshifts they could no longer give me the offer they planned on for FT in one of their top groups. Just super disheartening all around.

Wanted to throw my 2 cents in on this. I have experienced a lot of both good and bad luck throughout my career so far, not even a decade in.

Bad

- Lost my first offer out of school due to a start date error by the HR person (offered the job March of my senior year, company had an immediate need and start date of April 1st, which I obviously couldn't do). Capital Markets Analyst for one of the largest home builders in the country. 

- Lost my second offer out of school due to a unforeseen hiring freeze (company slowed down, some free cash flow issues). FP&A analyst for a larger Fin-Tech firm

- Couple years ago had a final interview as a Data Analyst for one of the Pro MLB teams, was told the day of my interview the position had been filled.

Good

- Lucked my way into a procurement associate position at a large manufacturing company with no experience other than my first job as a middle operations analyst at a small Fin-Tech firm

- During Covid, manager, mentor, and head of department were fired, but I was kept. Parleyed that into a promotion to a Category Manager running Fleet and Capex for a 3 billion dollar company

- Once screwed out of 15% bonus (received $500 instead of the 15k), I applied to a job as a Sourcing Manager at a large financial company and got the job. 130-150k, 40 hours a week, low stress (construction and real estate sourcing).  

Overall, I think the best career and maybe life advice in general I have ever received is that life is full of variables out of your control, they can go with you sometimes or against you. Best you can do is focus on what you can control, make that the best you can, and dont worry about what you cant control (let the chips elsewhere fall as they may). Eventually you will be on that receiving end if you have done everything in your power to do so.

My story is similar. I grew up outside of the US, went to college at an institution that yearly tuition was ~$5k. I didn't speak English fluently until ~5 years ago. I started at a Big 4, transitioned into a back office role and eventually got very close to the CFO. Long story short, he went to a small Fund and took me with him. Fast forward a few years I'm front office now. Just got my bonus last week --I cleared $400k all in. I'm an extremely lucky person, who worked hard and found the right people at the right time.  

I had a similar experience that put life and time into perspective. I graduated 2020, so right when the pandemic was kicking off with nothing lined up. Also, my undergrad was absolutely not known at all. Liberal arts and tiny ass class size. My GPA was lacking too. Months go by where I live with my parents, just play video games until 3am, eat, watch the news, and maybeeee workout. I really thought I was screwed by throwing away years of my future career cause of COVID. Until I just decided to put a sock in it, grow a pair, and go for it. I took an excel crash course, worked on my technicals, got a new suit, and applied to 30 jobs a week min. Got a hit from a local very tiny fund but experience nonetheless. Passed my series exams and really put in the work. 2 years later, PM writes me a super nice and compelling LOR for MBA and I get into T20 program starting this fall. PM also had an INSANE connection to someone important in the program who basically vouched for me big time. I cried at the thought of how many doors this will open for me. Not once did I think 3 years ago that I would be where I am at right now. I really thought it was over (dramatic at the time i know) and I wouldn't do anything meaningful in my life. For me, this is the beginning of the rest of my life. So for me it was a mix of luck and sheer will. I can't even begin to tell you how many cover letters I've written. 

Came from a smaller non-target regional school. Was originally planning on being an auditor. However, got lucky with a mentorship program I signed up for and got paired with a CAO of a sizable O&G PE portfolio company. Ended up trying to get into banking and PE after realizing how boring pure accounting was. Actually almost ended up with an SVB IB SA offer last summer (thankfully fucked up a technical and didn't get the offer). Ended up with a really unique and interesting PE offer for the summer. PE firm wanted me back, but couldn't give me an offer at that point in time because of market going to shit. I recruited hard for IB, and ended up beating out a lot of really qualified candidates from target or semi-target school for a MM IB role.