Secure job making $500k/year vs. MM pod analyst
From an earnings perspective (ignoring passion etc.), which would you choose?
Option A:
- $500k/year (almost guaranteed)
- 5% annual growth
- Low layoff risk (performance based, not market based)
Option B:
- L/S analyst @ MM HF (good, but not C/M)
- $1-2B book (no sleeve)
- "Average" PM
- ~$200k base
- Typical career options (get a sleeve eventually, possibly become a PM, get fired randomly, etc.)
Say more about Option A and how old are you? Leaning towards Option A without knowing more
How would age change the decision? Younger = can still take more risk?
It's silly to put this decision in the hands of strangers. There are a ton of factors to consider where you have better info than anyone else: how much do you like public markets, what is your risk tolerance, do you have a family to sustain, do you have a trust fund under your name, etc.
Be an adult and own the decision yourself.
I'm just trying to understand how folks here see the risk/reward of the job. The scenarios don't describe my exact situation.
these are the only & exact questions you have to ask yourself.
option A depending on your age (assuming mid 20s) guarantees you a upper-middle class lifestyle for life with pretty low risk, depends if you have any ambitions beyond that
Close but from strictly a compensation perspective I would go option A.
Option B.
I like risk and upside and challenge - I would wager on trying to get a few really good years in and parlay that into passive investments as quickly as possible to achieve financial freedom. All it takes is one good year... that's a chance I'd jump at. Plus you would probably learn way more at the pod.
The only way I'd take A is if I had children to raise or had something else going on the side like a business I was building to generate some upside, or a very low risk tolerance (not me).
FYI, it genuinely takes years of grinding before you can get to a position where having a good year will pay out. The years of grinding are truly a slog with very little guarantee of you making it. (i.e. How many 4am calls from an angry PM can you realistically handle before you start to get fed up of it?).
The hours may not be anywhere near as bad as PE or IB but you are still working 10-12 hour, high stress days. You are constantly dealing with the stress of managing positions and dealing with genuinelly very shitty people.
You can also succeed as a sub-PM or analyst with carve and still not get paid because your PM is an ass. A lot of your success is highly depenedent on rolling the dice with your PM.
Would you say it's worth it?
this is basically LO vs MM no?
Wasn't thinking about it this way, but could be close.
You are more likely to get washed out in option B before you can even reach option A's comp. Also, wtf does "average" PM even mean?
.
The numbers you just spewed out imply you have no idea how MMHF / pod shops work. The comparable product is not SPY, and the performance is not 50%. The product is a low volatility return stream without the drawdowns that equities face, call it 10-15% target, with some 5% years instead of -20% years.
The question is which earnings profile you prefer. No predictions about AI needed :-)
Option A - excluding passion aspect, Option B expected earnings are lower (since you said OK pm). If it was a great PM answer maybe changes.
I am in Option A (or at least a close comp) and in many ways its nice. Chill, stability, no getting chewed out. One thing missing from the convo is how insane the politics get at LO. Never worked at an MM so maybe I am glorifying it, but it strikes me as a place with less time for bs and people just have to be straightforward. The amount of times I am pulled into a private conversation to discuss 'sensitive topics' everyday, would be considered insane at any other place of work. I am serious when I say this happens multiple times a day.
What kind of sensitive topics we talking about lol
Sounds like you just work on a terrible team…
Depends on your preferred career path / risk tolerance, and how much you want to make
Option A is better though probably. Option B is mostly rolling the dice.
I think you stay in option A to learn and earn your first couple million and then after a decade or whatever, you swing at the pod
Option B is betting that you’re truly top-tier in a competitive firm where “good” doesn’t get paid long term. If you believe you can be exceptional, take B — otherwise lock in A.
If you care purely about earnings, the secure 500k wins for most people because the pod path is not a straight line to big money. Many analysts never get a sleeve, get recycled after a drawdown, or spend years in the 300 to 600k range without real upside. The expected value looks high on paper, but survivorship is brutal and timing matters more than skill early on.
Pod only makes sense if you are confident you can get risk quickly and are willing to accept real downside years or getting cut. Otherwise you are trading a guaranteed compounding income for a probabilistic outcome that only pays off if you actually reach PM economics.
How not C/M is it. Is it Point or Baly or we talking Verition etc
Option A 100%.
Option B is rolling the dice to see what kind of PM you get and your pay (assuming you are completely junior) will mostly depend on your PM rather than your own skill.
I'm in a similar situation at 28yo, I make 800k$/y at SMHF (not a big name) but I always wanted to get the pod shop experience with sharp people who love the game. I spent my life learning about tickers and I have some special imagination I use to generate narratives before the street sees them especially in this political environment in which the truth is barely relevant.
But honestly I don't work much, zero responsibility and stress while my performance is crazy good. I keep doing that for a few years and I'm set for life. From a risk/reward perspective moving would be crazy. Hopefully my gambling addiction will help me to make the jump.
What style of SMHF is this? Sounds amazing
Definitely path A. Started at a top MM straight out of undergrad but got disillusioned quickly after 2 pods i was in blew up in a row. It really is all about luck. If I had a chance to redo my career would have tried starting in IB instead. But then again, I'm speaking from someone who's more risk-averse given my family upbringing. If I was more privileged growing up, and thus had more leeway to take financial risks, would probably choose path B.
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