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lol
Nope, Dow 20000 here we come
The question is when, not if. The answer is unknowable.
As in, ever again? Of course it is. If you are asking if I think the market is going to crash soon....nothing really says to me that it will. I've been hearing about a 'correction' from people for a while now, but these are the same people that think gold is a good investment or that BTC is the future....that QE is an inflationary program, and the bank bailouts shouldn't have happened, and that Obama is ruining the country. Frankly, I think it's a bunch of shit. There was a crash, there was a recession, things are picking up slowly in a more tightly regulated environment.
The markets will crash again at some point, it's inevitable....but I don't see them crashing in the near term. Why would the market crash if the economy is improving? The people who think there's going to be a crash.....how about they come up with a justification of this position.
I remember an article from WSJ regarding Yellen just days before her sworn said she doesn't see much problem with the market condition now and the writer predicted there is probably another 20% to be gained before Fed steps on the brake.
Soros sold a whole chunk of it according to media. The people (hedge fund managers, prop traders in banks) I know are either extremely bearish or neutral. Nobody I know is bullish and most people expect to see deteriorating economic data in the near future. The 2014 vs 1929 charts are funny. In brief, you will have a chance to sell into the weakness, or wait a bit longer to see if the market has decided which way to go. Patience will be rewarded.
This is like asking if someone thinks they are going to die
I mean in the near future (1-3 years). I'm just bringing up the topic because of all the noise around the subject lately…
What noise? Coming from who? Saying what? And define lately. Exactly what rumor are you looking for confirmation of?
SPX index PE of 17 isn't unreasonable. Also, if we're so overdone why do PE firms continue to buy massive stakes in public companies, or take them private.
As mentioned above, sure one day it will happen. However, you would have to predict some catastrophic event similar to CDS in 2008; I've pondered this for many hours and can't seem to determine a logical reason. Maybe student loans but the impact doesn't affect >50% of Americans (although I'm sure it's a nice chunk)
I'm pretty sure that, if anything, PE activity spiking would be a signal that the market is at a high and might crash. PE firms were buying massively in 2007 but that was not a sign that valuations were appropriate, just that the credit markets were wide open. Similarly to the current picture. Credit is likely to be most available when we're at a peak as opposed to when businesses are cheap.
The the OP, the best discussion I've seen about the current market and what future returns should look like is on this blog: http://philosophicaleconomics.wordpress.com
The posts are very long and in-depth but if you're looking for a rational discussion from various points of view this is where you'll find it.
The only answer is that of course the market will "correct" itself, at some point the S&P will go down 10%+ without a doubt and within our lifetimes it's entirely reasonable to expect it will go down 30, 40, 50% at some point. But I think the evidence points to stocks still being the best place to be, even at current prices, if you are looking to invest long-term and have the discipline to avoid panicking if prices suddenly fall by 20%. And FWIW, I think Fed policy makes a recession, and hence a massive fall in stocks, unlikely in the short-run - every recession going back decades has been preceded by a downward sloping yield curve, which is exactly the opposite of the environment the Fed is forcing.
"Maybe student loans but the impact doesn't affect >50% of Americans (although I'm sure it's a nice chunk)"
this wont happen - 1) students cant wipe their debt in bankruptcy, its in the law and 2) if students go bankrupt, they lose their pension entitlements.. (I;m not sure on this point so maybe someone can expand on this if I'm correct?)
Overall, S&P500 very technically bullish at the moment - moving average trending up on low volume. A breakout of 1,900 should see next phase of the bull market.
Fundamentally there are risks (especially QE and I think a good portion of the housing recovery is attributable to PE firms like BlackRock) and there hasn't been more than a 10% correction since 2011. Saying this, the market is backed by the Fed put. Dangerous betting against the fed. Could be the biggest bull market in history.
No I don't
Yield curve looks pretty good. Private debt isn't growing out of control compared to GDP. I don't see a crash for the next 2 years unless another large economy(China) crashes. A buying opportunity would arise when another large economy crashes.
Nope.
Many HF managers have said we're in "greater fool" territory - no telling how long that can go on for though
Stock market may or may not crash i think its unpredictable one...
When rates actually begin to be raised I'd look out below.
What do you guys think now? I was a bit early, but can you hear the noise now? It seems like half the people are bearish and half the people still think this market can run a bit more. I think a correction (10-20%) is inevitable, but the timing is hard to predict. The major cause to my concerns is still the fed artificially keeping this market up. I agree with the above poster that when rates rise we should be cautious, but i think we should be cautious now.
Anyone's views change recently?
Waiting for my last position to get called and then I will be sitting on my hands for the rest of this boom cycle.
How far more do you guys think this market will correct? Do you think it will be over anytime soon? Glad I got out, gonna jump in and buy when i feel the dust has settled, obviously the timing of that will be hard to predict.
It will crash again, but not in the near future. It a very regulatory and compliance based environment.
Although if public policy changes that SOON then we will see it accelerated. I'm just hoping optimism will help roll it in that direction.
The market is built on sand, investors are nervous and it will go lower before it resumes the 5.5yr bull market. Let it flesh out the speculative investors, a great time to be buying value.
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