Idiot Alert - Anyone Buy NFLX at $13?
I almost did. Had my cursor hovering right over the “buy” button on the ol' Schwab screen. But, alas, I am an idiot.
I remember it like it was $402 ago: Netflix was sitting at 13 (I think it was actually around 90, but this was before a 7:1 split). I was about to pull the trigger; after all, the stock was already down more than 50 percent from its somewhat-recent high. So I was about to buy at 13, but thought I'd wait for just a little more of a dip... before I know it, stock shoots up to 23.
And I couldn’t buy it then, right? No, I'm not a Chaser. Only idiots are Chasers. I had to wait for it to drop a bit so I wouldn’t feel like a Chaser… I just needed it to go down a li’l bit… just a li'l, li’llllll bit…
But it never freakin' did! Just kept goin' up! Why did God make my brain so stupid?!
And now it kills me every time I see this stock reach new highs. Anyone else have a story about The One (Thousand Percenter… or in Netflix’s case, Three Thousand Percenter!) That Got Away?
Also, if anyone out there recommended this stock (or another massive winner) to their boss way back when, were you compensated/recognized/promoted accordingly?
we bought it before the split (if that counts) at like 85 or something in that range
and then proceeded to sell it 3 weeks later can't win em all..
I was just about to give you kudos! Still, at least you had the foresight to buy... but to prevent the sell-regret, do you guys ever implement a policy whereby you sell your gains on the stock... but keep your initial investment invested just for this very reason? I figure this way, if you still believe in the stocks's fundamentals, then you won't have to kick yourself if the stock still has a parabolic rise.
You mean when the knife was falling you didn't look into your crystal ball and know it would jump up into a 30 bagger 8 years later!?
Wow, you are an idiot! Anyone who doesn't have that foresight should just grab the nearest rusty hacksaw and remove their balls and never reproduce. I hope the world exiles you to the abyss epic failures!
It's not that I truly think I'm an idiot (at least not just for that). But if you have a strong conviction about a stock (which I did -- not that I knew more than anyone else). But I thought t was a great brand name even at the time, bit of a momentum play, and it was down significantly... what I'm saying is, sometimes I just have to be more open-minded to taking a flyer on a brand name that has a dominant position and is down signficantly... and just put 2 percent of my portfolio in it. If it doesn't work out, I'm not gonna lose a significant portion of my portfolio, but if it hits, it can really move the needle for me. (I'm thinking right now about Twitter -- brand name, leader in category, millions of people use it every day... a year ago it was down 75% from highs... so why not put 2 percent of your portfolio in a brand leader in tech, still growing top-line, yes, overvalued based on certain metrics... but if it hits -- like it did -- you make 200 percent in one year? I should have subscribed to this thinking with Netflix, and also should have done it with Twitter,
I hope you sensed my sarcasm. It's hard to catch a falling knife...
I had a few pennies in it at $90 ~ one year ago and took profits. I'd have a lot more nickles if I didn't
Don't know how long this can sustain itself. Stock is trading at forward PE of 90, with P/S of 14... of course, how long has everybody been saying "This can't go on?"
lots of ppl in Seattle who regret not buying sbux in the 90's
I regret buying SBUX last week -- this new CEO is doing nothing! And regarding SBUX, yeah, I get it, you can say what I said about Netflix about a lot of stocks... we've all missed the boat on a ton of 'em... but it just hurts knowing I missed one that's been a 30-bagger over 5 years... that one could've been a life-changer.
My hindsight book is doing about as well as it can.
right there with ya bud.
bought it before the split. sold after the earnings bust. took in profit. then told a friend to buy it at 90. was holding on to amazon at that time, so couldn't get in myself. hovered at 100's then started ignoring. friend got rich, i am still poor and now filled with regrets. Now thought i would get in again so bought it again at 389. not going to sell it this time around.
Ha. I know. I got back in at 280, but with NOT NEARLY the shares I would have owned. Just kind of a token purchase so that I wouldn't be 100% pissed every time it goes up. Now I just get 92 percent pissed.
This isn’t what investors do.
Netflix isn’t the same company it was then.
No investor can predict the success at changing business models. How they don’t with rising content costs. Netflix had serious business problems then. They very easily could have turned into the next blockbuster etc.
It why Buffett largely stays away from technology. You can’t actually predict genius management decisions even if you think the manager is a genius. No one has that foresight.
Fwiw nvdia shorted their own stock at 22 like 2.5 years ago. (Should warrants for size to save a few bps on a bond deal)
First I’ve heard of this other than noticing some hedge related costs on their balance sheet.
Can someone explain to me the purpose of issuing convertible debt and paying premium? Point of convertible debt is to help a shaky credit raise cash at a reasonable interest rate....this transaction would cancel out that effect. Not that nvdia at the time was a shaky credit and needed to issue convertible debt. Maybe I believe in the capm or something but I can’t see the logic of a hardware company doing financial transactions far more complicated than they need to be.
Do you have a link to transaction? I haven’t seen anything on them being hedged.
Slight hate to you. If they were hedged it ruins my anecdote for even geniuses miss things that appear obvious a short time later.
TSLA summer 2011. Price was $35. Only the Roadster existed on streets (rarely seen). Model S was being showcased as the future, and I believed it was real because that thing was impressive then. Took a tour of the shop and everything. Sat in the car. Three years later it was up 10x. I’m still impressed, more because of 3Q predictions, model 3 production pace, and it’s innovation with lithium ion batteries.
I know this thing has been preached A LOT recently, but, just couldn’t help but resonate with that crushing feeling you’re probably having when you go back and calculate money you could’ve had.
You mean up 10x?
My bad yeah 10x
Exactly. That's why, on the ones I really missed out on, I'll frequently look for a future dip and -- if fundamentals are still strong -- will stick my toe in a little bit just so I can (literally) be invested in potential future appreciation. Doesn't do nearly as much for me financially, but I find that it helps me psychologically.
Makes you scared to turn on CNBC sometimes at 9:30... or at 4:10, just after they released earnings.
Facebook. I bought it somewhere in the low $30's shortly after it went public, but sold when it started to drop lower. Never bought back in. I bought more AAPL and TSLA instead.
Worked out okay for you...
It did, however I did not catch TLSA before it's initial big pump in 2013.
Yeah, I I get it, it's not the same... but at least you're close to doubling up (assuming TSLA doesn't lose 35 percent and head back down to 250... which -- unlike some of these other high-fliers -- wouldn't surprise me.
Yeah I think I averaged 75%-80% profit on it. I sold the majority of my position close to that summer peak last year. I still think TLSA is gonna go bigger, just been fucking with other stuff lately.
Tsla only has its valuation because in the last market cycle buying geniuses paid. If reed Hastings and jobs etc didn’t end up creating real value then Tesla owners would be in a world of hurt right now and the company might be bankrupt, but because those guys succeeded people are willing to let musks issue equity at 80 billion valuations. If he couldn’t issue equity he wouldn’t be able to pay his debt. FWIW I love musk and think spaceX would be a great investment. But I struggle to come up with a thesis on how he can make money in autos. It’s a highly competitive industry, capital intensive with moderate margins. It basically makes me think if tsla ever becomes really profitable has to be something with achieving better scales or technology in batteries.
But it’s honestly funny how companies make money. You can have an amazing product but lack a hook into a money jar. I don’t think Apple phones are that much better than anyone else’s yet they charge a premium price while the rest of the cell phone guys have profit margins that remind you of how the airlines operated for years.
Your Tesla analysis makes perfect sense; I think Tesla gets an Elon-Premium that isn't warranted by the fundamentals or the execution of the company. Never thought of it in terms of "In Jobs/Hastings We Trust," but that appears to be what's keeping Tesla not just surviving, but thriving as well.
This response will sound rude, but don't take it personally. I find it funny how people keep bringing up the "how can tesla be competitive" question when it's the most innovative car company since Henry Ford started the assembly line. When did you last say that about a car company that reached this scale of production? Also for the people questioning the scale of supply chain on batteries - have you seen the gigafactory?
"The factory's planned annual battery production capacity is 35 gigawatt-hours (GWh), with one GWh being the equivalent of generating (or consuming) 1 billion watts for one hour. This is nearly as much as the entire world's current battery production combined."
Not to mention Musk is leaps and bounds more intelligent, and harder working, than all the other jack-off automotive CEO's put together. He is literally a rocket scientist. When starting SpaceX, no decent engineers would come work for him, so he designed the rockets himself.
Yes, the current valuation is inflated due to hype and I'm not in it because I want to watch which way it's about to go, but the Tesla story is just getting started IMO. There are lots and lots of Tesla arguments on WSO between people far more informed than I am, so I probably won't continue this one. Just my point of view to date since you brought it up responding to my post.
EDIT: one other point, he does care about making cash from Tesla because he wants it to fund the BFR/Mars program. Same for Solar City, and all his other endeavors - their purpose is to provide cash to get us to Mars. He stated this in one of his live talk videos.
Yeah, I think Elon’s more concerned with making world better as opposed to making finances of his shareholders better (which some might argue is not horrible thing).
You’re talking theoretical — while insider transactions can be very useful information, you make it sound as if it was a horrible mistake to invest in Netflix at 13 or 20, and also invest in NVDA at 22. An investor needs to gather as much information, from as many sources, as he can and then make an educated guess as to not only where he thinks the company is going, but also the psychology of other investors. Investors are drawn to high growth companies; witness NFLX and NVDA vs. GE. Both NFLX and NVDA were/are smack dab in the middle of secular trends where sustainable, double digit, top line growth is not only a possibility, but a probability. If high-growth companies are reasonably priced, investing 3% of one’s portfolio in them, in my opinion, cannot be seen as an unwise investment. It may not work out – – but in the case of both Netflix and the one you just cited, it worked out phenomenally for investors who took this tack. If you don’t think one’s an “investor” because they bought Netflix at 13 or NVDA at 22, I respect your opinion. I just don’t agree with it
Not my point. You can’t blame yourself for not catching a 33 bagger. There was zero evidence Netflix would dominate their category at that point in time.
Agree you have to deal with the evidence you have at a given time. When the stock was at 14 you didn’t have a lot of evidence it would go up this much. I believe Icahn bought it there and I looked at it . Probably because of the brand etc.
But at that 14 price Netflix wasn’t even a streaming company yet (might have been early transition). It was mail order video. Point is an investor can’t extrapolate that they missed a huge gain when the company has changed its business model 2-3 times since. You can’t place an intelligent investment on a business model the company has not announced yet. It’s an unknown unknown and therefore not investor.
Now you could buy the stock at 14 and think it’s cheap enough to see if reed can do anything with his current advantages (loyal consumers), but you can’t anticipate the unknown.
Fwiw this is also what got people in trouble with theranos. Everyone thought management looks like the next genius. Just give her $6 billion....and poof it’s gone.
I believe Netflix started streaming back in 2007 — but even in 2012, it was nowhere near as omnipresent or prolific as it is now. I honestly don’t remember precisely why back then I thought Netflix had so much potential – – it could’ve just been that I was amazed at how efficiently they ran their DVD business: you sent your DVDs to them on a Tuesday you got new ones back on Thursday. It was automatic, all the time, 2 day turnaround. And they had great customer service: if you said you lost discs, they never questioned or even charged you — they just sent you new one... I specifically remember being impressed by this, since if you did this at Blockbuster, they would probably charge you 80 bucks.
If you were at all involved in tech, Nvidia was spottable at 22. They had an iron grip on gaming - there's your downside protection - with strong growth in high performance computing and mobile.
All of the big names in AI and self-driving recommended Nvidia's GPUs, and there was zero chance the need for either of those applications was going to shrink over the next decade... That doesn't even include all of the crypto crap that was well established by this time.
Anyone looking at SNAP as an opportunity? Think it hit bottom yet?
I'm probably the least qualified guy to make a prediction... but while it's 100% rev growth is sweet, I can't invest in a company that's selling at 17 times sales.
I tried to buy recently and didn’t get the fill. I’m not in the mood to chase it.
I wouldn’t say snap has been on a decline. It’s been trading within a broad channel between 10-20sh since ipo. Most recently it’s been on an upswing - made 15% riding that up the past couple weeks.
Random question - how much $ do you typically toe in on a company at a time for personal trades?
2 to 4 percent of my total portfolio; gives u skin in the game, but u can’t really get creamed.
ha! I'm long NFLX. Bought in about a month after having a conservation at the bar with a technology dude back in 2011 or so. You know the conversation, if you had $5k to invest where would you put it? Sold 1/3 position at about $150 pre split to cover my nut. Maybe the dumbest thing I did. The other 2/3 is up 25x+. I think the company will have a market cap in excess of $400B before it begins to face more competition....we'll see!!
I think it’s wise strategy to sell off some winnings after stock has tripled — after all, how many companies usually gin on a 5x or 10x run? U still hung onto 2/3? I would consider myself lucky if hung into that sizeable portion.
Yep, still have the other 2/3. Long NFLX!
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