Retail Sales Nicely done, apes. After months of heckling by yours truly, y'all really did finally get out there and contribute to the economy. This must be what it feels like when a parent drops their kid off at college. Maybe that's a bit of a stretch. Regardless, whatever we did, it worked because January's retail sales data came in way hotter than expected. Factset estimates pegged growth at 1.7%, but the grand total of $697bn for the month nearly doubled this growth guesstimate, coming in at 3.0%. After adjusting for the more volatile line items like cars and gas, retail sales gained 2.6% for the month, about 5.8x the 0.45% guesstimate. Adjusting for inflation, analysts at the SEC's least favorite bank, Wells Fargo, reported real retail sales growth of 2.6% from the December period. Any way you slice it, this was a HUGE month for retailers and consumers in general. Despite a recent poll showing sentiment near its lowest point since the GFC, January's consumers posted the largest one-month gain since March 2021, the month when Joey B dumped the government's 3rd round of stimulus checks on us. Plebs like me were sure surprised by this beat, but non-crayon-eaters like BofA economist Aditya Bhave weren't. Bhave adds the context that this jump coalesced after months of wage increases and the largest single-year hike in social security payments on record. Traditionally, low-income earners, aka the group that captured the highest wage growth in 2022, and those on social security have a much higher propensity to spend at Target rather than the Dow Jones. This generally increases the velocity of money, which is usually a good thing, but maybe not with 6.4% inflation still hangin' around. And that's the thing. Snoop Dogg-high inflation has dominated our wallets and minds for so long now that it's largely to blame for consumers feeling so down bad in the above poll. At the same time, hoards of consumers report in surveys that they themselves are doing alright but are convinced the economy is in the sh*tter. Keep in mind, apes, that inflation comes when things run too hot. After all those stimmy checks hit, the economy was hotter than a love child between Brad Pitt and Margot Robbie. So naturally, JPow gave it a black eye. And that, once again, was the cause of the day's early trepidation. Along with January's jobs data, this report is keeping JPow up at night. Now the only question for economists is whether it's really that deep. Who knows. But it sure worked out for Target (+2.86%) and Macy's (+1.52%). It's tough to sort out if this is a sign of a normalizing economy or one overheating again, as C-19 caused as much change in consumer spending as the EPA did to chemical companies when we learned dumping radioactive waste into reservoirs is not very cash-money. Spending tends to be much more spread throughout the year since 2020. December was light, but January was hot, suggesting maybe frugal consumers were just waiting on the sidelines until some sweet deals emerged. Good for the economy, bad for JPow. Can't wait to run it back. | 
