What are the best investments we can make Before/During the war between Russia and NATO? Share your knowledge!
There's a very high possibility that we will witness to a full-scale war in 2022. Even though Putin threatened NATO with the use of nuclear weapons recently, I don't believe that NATO will back off or Russia really will use those weapons.
Let's make this a thread where investment/finance professionals share their knowledge.
Which investment options would be the best during a potential war between Russia and NATO? (Assuming no one is using nuclear or chemical bombs to end the human race.)
- Which type of currencies, stocks, and precious metals should we buy?
- Could Bitcoin be a good choice of investment?
- What are the other things that we should do?
Please, share your opinions and more of your knowledge in the comments!
I'm stating the obvious here, but defense/aerospace for one.
in WW2 military factories were a big target for bombing (at least in Europe)
i wonder how things would work in 21st century? would russia actively bomb raytheon / lockheed martin facilities? what would that do to their ability to manufacture weapons? how would that impact their share price? debt price?
does any country even have the capacity to mass manufacture weapons atm other than china?
from what i recall from school America repurposed a lot of their consumer-orientated manufacturing for war purposes in ww2. does it even have a manufacturing base anymore left to repurpose?
no joke but how many people does each country have that legitimately can set up a factory from scratch and help mass produce tanks / planes etc?
i have no idea how the next ww will be fought...assuming no nukes kinda seems it would be a case of all conventional armies / facilities being wiped out by missiles in few weeks and then its a stalemate / urban warfare?
what would western financial institutions who hold debt do to russian companies in strategic (or any) industries? manufacture technical default? pull revolvers?
anyone more interested in military tactics that has read in depth any war game scenarios care to chime in?
Bitcoin is a Ponzi scheme. That’s like saying “will madoff be a good investment during the coming war?”. Finra needs to put bitcoin as a auto fail question on the series 7 and sanction those who recommend it.
Still a better investment than a career in Corporate Banking
It’s always the students that come for the throat
For stocks you obv would want the defense sector such as lockheed martin, boeing, raytheon
This is dumb. Any conflict in Eastern Europe would not use expensive and impractical "glass cannon" vehicles such as aircrafts. Wars are won with boots on the ground, oil to transport said boots and grain to feed said boots.
As usual, oil, agriculture and heavy industry will surge. Defense/aerospace will not. Aircrafts are for asymmetrical wars, not one against a peer nation.
This^ now this is a guy who knows his geopolitics
Based
This might be the most stupid post of 2022. This moron talks like modern warfare takes place in trenches with bayonets and razor wire. You digging your own bomb shelter too, guv'nor? Give me a break!!!
The US military advantage absolutely comes from superior technology. If you haven't heard the phrase "we own the night" then you don't know a thing about modern warfare. The last thing we'll be deploying is boots on the ground, it simply doesn't work that way any more.
Look into the energy crisis that will result in Europe as Russia supplies most of the gas and oil for Europe. Take a look into the big players that will step up to meet that demand or just take a best on futures.
This is not a financial advice but I seriously doubt the imminent Russian Ukrainian war for the following reasons:
1- While the western media has been warming up westerner for this war, the russian propaganda has not started yet. This is crucial since Putin would not start a war without the backing of the general population. Its just like when the invasion of Taiwan by china was "imminent" back in 2021.
2- Putin does not have the backing of the russian population for a war against Ukraine. As Putin himself declared Russians and Ukrainians are the same people, many Russian have family in Ukraine and vice versa. Unprovoked, a war against Ukraine and the subsequent images of dead Ukrainians would seriously hurt Putin's authority and power.
3- I think Russia is showing its muscles and will try to exert influence on Ukraine to push it back into the russia sphere, maybe through covert ops, small skirmishes... but not a total war
I would execute your strategy if I would hear that Ukraine is taking a step toward joining the EU or NATO. Until then I'm holding.
I doubt the backing of the proles matters to Putin. He’ll start a war if it means he can: stave off the seeds of democracy, take a budding democracy down, show the rest of the world that practitioners of democracy are hypocrites, maintain power (keep his head and all his rubles).
The beauty of being Putin (if you’re Putin) is that you don’t give a fuck about what anyone thinks. You have the money, the Palaces, every national security apparatus, every media outlet, and lever of government at the edge of your boot.
Putin cares about protests. About being perceived as legitimate in a clearly illegitimate construct. About being taken seriously by the mean west. About knocking us down a peg.
The China comparison is on point, and I would add North Korea. Constant fear-mongering in the Western media when the reality is that both sides (China/Taiwan, North/South Korea) actually benefit the most from maintaining the status quo. I am definitely more an East Asia wonk so I don't purport to have all the answers regarding Russia, but it seems like there is much more to lose on both sides than to gain. The media tends to paint the rulers of these places as madmen to dehumanize them, but Putin/Xi/Kim are not unhinged imbeciles, they still have politics and economics to play. Probably also to this "war machine media overhype" list you can add Iran, but I'm out of my depth regarding that region.
Agree personally with the China thing, but I’d say all bets are off with a country where all the power is held by one person who is surrounded by yes men who treat him like a god. Certainly possible Kim has a mental breakdown and does something brash and irrational. Similar thing happened with King George III
I guess on that same token, the Chinese government is not acting as rationally as I thought with their absolute 0 tolerance with Covid, locking down entire cities like Shanghai given the possible economic impact.
Interesting take. Did you normally consume Russian media? How would you know what kind of propaganda they’d would or would not deploy?
Obviously hindsight is 2020, but I would say every time the Kremlin pushed back against western fears of an invasion as paranoia was propaganda to convince Russians that the westerners were war mongering.
I personally didn’t doubt American intelligence the weeks leading up to the invasion, but I also couldn’t bring myself to actually believe such a war would happen. It wasn’t until Putin first announced the “neo nazis” in Ukraine thing that I actually felt something could happen.
War no war. This is the end of stable energy supply to Europe. European gas and power kaboomy. Look into buying rare earth and renewables companies.
rare earth and energy did work. dk about renewables due to growth stock rout.
Gonna go against consensus and say that I don't see the war happening atm, hence the defense sector is all hype and will disappoint
My portfolio is now canned goods and shotgun shells.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/ukraine-president-says-told-russia-w… FYI
None because it isn't going to happen. I guess you could short energy stocks when the troop buildup is drawn down.
Gonna swing for the fence here and say Toyota in case they decide to build gundams.
Swiss franc - always a safe heaven
Agricultural commodities - largest amounts of wheat travel/come through/from Black Sea
Distressed Russian assets - it will bounce back *eventually*
Energy stocks - treat is as distressed opportunities
Long RSX. Shit aint gonna happen. Everything is priced like war will break out. Im going long RSX here as it de-escalates over the coming weeks
lol
.
Russian stocks...
redacted
$TQQQ
what does everyone think now?
Asperiores nostrum saepe vitae et molestiae et consequuntur. Et molestiae incidunt debitis amet unde culpa. Aut enim soluta in quibusdam esse atque ut. Aliquid incidunt quia omnis officiis quis laboriosam eos aperiam. Totam iste commodi incidunt qui.
See All Comments - 100% Free
WSO depends on everyone being able to pitch in when they know something. Unlock with your email and get bonus: 6 financial modeling lessons free ($199 value)
or Unlock with your social account...
Aut dignissimos expedita commodi eius est qui doloremque. Voluptate illo consequatur quas ducimus omnis cumque sint. Corrupti inventore quas corporis et non exercitationem. Quia in quis voluptatem iste adipisci. Voluptatem dolorem tenetur laborum eum non et dolores dignissimos.