2024 M&A League Table Winners and Losers
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It's just a singular year, look at things from a 3-5-year perspective. MS, BOFA, and BARC are all going to be fine. Jeff has grown greatly every year and has invested way more into IB than the non-American BBs. The real question for Jeff is if exits will catch up, but great platform for seniors. They do severely underpay juniors though and the hours are brutal. Looking solely at Q3 and Q4 isn't worth much for the EB's comment. The M&A business and pipeline takes 6-24 months for a deal, and a strong quarter or two just suggests that deals came through at that specific timing not overall strength.
As per your table, both banks were top 10 in the year previous to this. Banks are allowed to have singular bad years. UBS also literally just had a major merger and Barclays had a lot of restructuring drama early in the year. Shocking to learn that banks going through uncertainty do worse in uncertain periods. Remember when giving mandates out, the corporate or sponsor has to believe in your bank and their relationship MD will still be there in 6-24 months that it takes for a deal, in 2024 you couldn't guarantee that for either Barclays or UBS.
UBS Investment Bank apologist says it takes 5 years to develop a pipeline. Don’t expect to see positive impacts from the UBS CS merger until 2030
UBs is regressing to the mean of historical UBS outside top 10. They couldn’t retain significant rainmakers from CS on the IB side. Heads will roll this year if there isn’t an improvement.
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