Africa is projected to have 4.5 billion people by 2100, with countries like Nigeria expected to have 752 million people (more than the population of Europe today) and countries like the Democratic People's Republic of the Congo are expected to have 389 million people by that time. In 2100, the world's largest cities are projected to be
Population (2100) City Country
1 88.3 million Lagos Nigeria 2 83.5 million Kinshasa DRC 3 73.7 million Dar Es Salaam Tanzania 4 67.2 million Mumbai India 5 57.3 million Delhi India 6 56.6 million Khartoum Sudan 7 56.1 million Niamey Niger 8 54.3 million Dhaka Bangladesh 9 52.4 million Kolkata India 10 50.3 million Kabul AfghanistanHow do dirt poor countries like the DRC build the necessary infrastructure to have a functioning megacity and not have terrible air pollution? In Mumbai or Lagos right now, traffic and pollution is already terrible, how can these cities deal with an influx of new people? Will these giant megacities end up as ECONOMIC POWERHOUSES or SHITHOLES?
It may curve in population, birth rates are already going down in several of those countries.
If these countries get more modernized and introduced to advanced contraception while breaking away from the tradition of having 6 kids, it will curve. (I heard Bill Gates was delivering condoms to them with drones)
If not, I guess learn French and English instead of Chinese for future language.
bae: "did you bring protection?"
me: "baby slow down my drone will be here in 10min"
Need to fix their electricity network first. South Africa is the first gateway into the continent, and even their grid is a mess. Around 70% of all Africans have no access to electricity.
First we’ll have to tell them they can’t industrialize because of climate change
This sounds about right. With China's wages increasing, and ASEAN countries developing more, Africa will provide cheap labor and natural resources, while China will provide lots of capital with strings attached. Interesting statistic of the day- there are currently more than 60,000 African students studying in China for university while there are 37,000 in the US. Long term prediction - with China bolstering their universities and luring top STEM students with scholarships, China could drain the continent's brain power as well. I also think that some countries in Africa might go "full China" and impose their own technocratic totalitarian regime with free markets AND it will probably work. Look no further than Paul Kagame and Rwanda - despite being a brutal dictator, he has turned Rwanda from being a wartorn hellhole into one of the best countries in Africa with a burgeoning tourism industry in two decades.
This is why US should definitely stand up to China and see China as not as a friend, China could challenge the ruled-based order established by the US and export its authoritarianism. I think many African countries have too much corruption problems, they're taking Chinese money but overdrafting their future
1) I think this is overblown. China trades with other countries besides the US and is strengthing trade agreements with other countries while we're not looking. Yes, they're hurting a bit, yes I'm long Vietnam and Taiwan atm but even with tariffs China still offers the best value of existing infrastructure and supply chain with lower wages for high skilled manufacturing.
2) agree 100%, and the corporate debt/GDP is high as fuck. Real estate in China is a huge bubble cluster fuck (in part due to capital outflow controls leading to people stashing their money in real estate, in part due to cultural saving and investing trends, in part due to the hugely uneven ratio of males to females and guys needing to own 2-3 apartments to be marriable, in part due to a cluster fuck of other factors) , but urbanization trends are still continuing and I don't think that the bubble will pop any time soon. I think this is what will ultimately lead to China's next recession. 3) The private sector accounts for 80 percent of urban jobs, that's where the growth is. I think the Chinese government recognizes that it needs more private enterprises to grow the economy. Will bloated SOEs lead to a big recession? I don't think so right now, but they will need to figure this out while they still can.