AI IB/Finance Job Risk

I wouldn’t worry about it. Not making predictions either way on the upending of white collar jobs as we know them but in my head IB will be one of the last to be super affected so why worry when everyone else is in the same boat.

Need to get big Donnie to hate AI and we good! 

Also - tougher to replace tradespeople than a banker. But My wider worry here is the economy is cyclical. If we simply ousted some predictable workflow professions like administrators/paralegals/PAs tomorrow -  the knock on of this is huge if they don't get follow-on jobs. 

The opposite of a tin-foil person but I think significant progress > significant job loss > protest. Will be interesting seeing this unfold. 

Buying property and equities doesn't help when people can't pay you rent and valuations dive head first off a cliff. 

AI only performs as well as my firm's Anchorage branch but it is on trajectory to become much better. I'd focus on building a few streams of passive income (for example, sneaker drops, FBA, bitcoin, and T-shirt designing) to hedge for the future.

Honestly, I don't see a risk. This may just be an RX guy's perspective but here are my thoughts:

1. IB is all about relationships at the senior level. Can't replace that with AI
2. There are a lot of things AI cannot do that I have to do. ChatGPT cannot run my pro forma analysis on 4 different targeted capital structures. It cannot read the credit docs because those are privileged (there are way more private companies that go bankrupt then public, for obvious reasons). I for example can't access any AI on my work computer. I'd need to use my personal then send it back to myself somehow. THe firm is developing an internal tool I believe but that'll take forever to get good. The only internal tool I have heard of that is actually incredibly helpful is McKinsey's proprietary google thing. Heard that from a friend there idek what it is this was years ago.
3. Excel caused an increase in productivity and # of bankers needed, not a decrease. Just means we can do more work. I'd expect some consolidation in a decade or so. Some of the weaker banks get bought out, teams merge, obviously redundancies, but on a net basis the teams can now do more business and grow. Productivity grows, hiring occurs, repeat. Obviously cyclical but this is a simplified version of my view.

I think AI is bigger than people realise. 

Excel is a tech that allowed for greater output. 

AI is basically just intelligence. It's intelligence that getting better and cheaper. When/IF it outperforms everyone, everyone is not needed (for work at least). 

Our society isn't structured for it and it's all happening super fast. This doesn't give society time to respond.