AI replacing junior level bankers
What are everyone's thoughts on AI replacing junior level bankers? We are not very far away from this AI software being capable of easily spreading comps, putting together a pitch deck, or sending calendar invites. No bank is going to keep junior level bankers if they can cheaply replace them. Would love to hear thoughts.
I'm not IB but I have recently tried to enhance my work using ChatGPT (got clearance and everything from management to link my work account to OpenAI) and to be honest I'd say it makes me 5% more productive. They key is that these AI tools are very good only if you can give it very detailed information about what you want them to do, and then give them good feedback on where they went wrong so that they can correct it.
Now, in IB, from what I said you may think that you are ChatGPT but for your VPs and MDs. They give you detailed information on what they want you to do, and then they tell you where you fucked up to correct it. But do you see your boomer MD actually using ChatGPT and similar tools? There is still a bunch of manual input needed to make these AI tools produce reasonable work. If all analysts were replaced, that would be extra time needed from the MD to wrangle with these tools and the key is that 5 minutes pay for the MD is worth a lot more than 5 minutes pay for you. So going back to that 5% productivity figure think about it like this: if right now your investment bank needs 100 analysts, it will soon only need 95. From my own experience, I can confidently say that my 5% figure will likely hold at least for the next 5 years. If you want to be safer, imagine it will be 10%. Just be sure that you are not bottom 10% and you won't get fired.
What will happen after those first 5 years? Well, I don't know. But 5 years is plenty of time to re-think your career and prepare yourself for more value-added roles that escape easy AI replacement. That is what serious professionals have been doing since computers became a thing. It is just your turn now, zoomers. Get used to it.
If boomers could do it, why can't you?
Super excited. One step closer to the matrix
Impossible to replace junior bankers with AI, there’s too many things when it comes to creating decks, running models, coordinating meetings/emails between teams and other stuff that require human thinking
Right - just like the auto manufacturers could never replace any humans on the assembly line
Once GPT is integrated with Microsoft Office who knows. You could tell GPT to format all the slides a certain way and implement x color scheme and changes. Maybe it reaches the point where it turns comments effectively through reinforcement learning. This won’t happen immediately but you can’t write off the possibility of it replacing tasks that juniors do
No one here can say with conviction what will or won’t happen. But let’s say the worst scenario happens and junior high finance roles get nixed. What are your guys’s plan B?
There’s just wayyyy too much nuance to word choice and relationships for ChatGPT to do those things. Do you send identical materials and messaging to all of your buyers? No. What happens when the FP&A team of a strategic is terrible and you need to sift through poorly aggregated data to pull together financials? Portions of the job conceptually seem like something that could be streamlined by AI, but I barely get legible comments from MDs/ directors. I don’t anticipate they’ll be able to run these things on their own
What about ChatGBT Version 12.4 coming in 2029? You do not know.
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