All the president's beef

MARKETS

• U.S. markets: After the Fed gave some much needed confidence back to Wall Street (more on that in a sec), the Dow scored its biggest rally in eight months. Some think investors may have overreacted.
• In the U.K...major banks haven't been skipping leg day. The Bank of England said they're strong enough to ride out Brexit, no matter how tumultuous it may be.

ECONOMY

A Big Day (and a Big Week) for the Federal Reserve

On Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's calendar this week: 1) a major Financial Stability Report 2) his "most consequential" speech yet and 3) taking more flack from the White House. We won't be disappointed if he needs to skip a Brew.

1. About that Financial Stability Report

Let's just say it was the Sour Patch Kid of central bank updates.

First it was sour. The Fed warned trade tensions, unpredictable Brexit negotiations, uncertainty in emerging markets/China, and even its own rate hikes could rock the U.S. financial system.

• If any of those shocks happen..."the resulting drop in asset prices might be particularly large, given that valuations appear elevated relative to historical levels."

Then it was sweet. Financial institutions are still well capitalized—and in turn ready to absorb shocks. Translation: A 2008-style credit crunch isn't in the forecast.

2. That speech actually was consequential

Powell took the stage at the Economic Club of New York yesterday under a lot of pressure—investors have worried the Fed is raising interest rates too quickly (it's raised rates three times this year).

But Wall Street collectively exhaled. Powell said the current interest rate level is "just below" neutral, aka not speeding up or slowing down economic growth.

• Remember, Powell said early last month the Fed was a "long way" from neutral. That comment sent stocks into a brief 10% correction.

3. Finally, to the president's beef

President Trump continued his criticism of Powell this week, putting on display the worst case of buyer's remorse since you thought puka shell necklaces were making a comeback.

• "I'm not even a little bit happy with my selection of [Powell]...I think that the Fed is way off-base with what they're doing," Trump told the WaPo.

Bottom line: Powell's trying to keep the economy from overheating with gradual rate hikes. But Trump, eyeing 2020, doesn't want Fed policy to get in the way of an economy booming under his administration.

CLOUD

Head in the Clouds?

Not a bad place to be. Yesterday was a big day for cloud companies.

Let's start with Salesforce. After earnings topped expectations for revenue, operating income, and year-end forecasts, the enterprise cloud giant is doing its best imitation of a rising tide.

• Remember, cloud firms are still trouncing the market for the year. That could make them more vulnerable to losses if quarterly financials don't "wow" investors.

But Salesforce's (+10.25%) strong post-earnings reaction (the best in nearly three years...wow) coupled with tangible growth prospects? That's good news for everyone...

Including Microsoft (+3.71%), which rode yesterday's cloud optimism to new heights—it briefly topped Apple's market value by as much as $3 billion.

• The two have been vying for the title of the world's most valuable public company all week. Wednesday's round goes to Apple, but Microsoft is still throwing punches.

And don't sleep on Amazon. After charming the crowd at its annual conference for cloud-lovers (any nephologists in the house?), Amazon (+6.09%) got some bullish reviews. One Jefferies analyst said its Amazon Web Services cloud business could be worth $350 billion by 2022.

TELECOM

The Next Theater of the Digital Cold War

TELECOM
The Next Theater of the Digital Cold War
Don't ever compare Kiwis to Aussies...unless you're talking about their governments' positions on Chinese 5G technology.

Yesterday, New Zealand blocked Chinese telecom firm Huawei from building out a 5G network in the country—after Australia did the same in August. New Zealand intelligence officials informed a major NZ carrier that using Huawei's 5G equipment would "raise significant national security risks."

Those risks:

• Some countries worry that Huawei will use its sensitive technology to snoop on or disrupt communications on behalf of the Chinese government.
• The threat is so real that the U.S. government has reportedly started an "extraordinary" effort to encourage allies to block Huawei (the largest telecom equipment maker in the world) from supplying 5G infrastructure.

The mother of all zoom outs: As the U.S.-China conflict rages on, you're starting to see a divide between countries that are comfortable with using next-gen Chinese tech...and ones that aren't. Earlier this week, Papua New Guinea said it's sticking to its deal with Huawei.

SPORTS GAMBLING

The New Big 3: Basketball, Gambling, and Data

If you want a glimpse into the future of U.S. sports betting, just look at the NBA. It signed deals with sports data providers Genius Sports Group and Sportradar to...you guessed it, provide betting data to U.S. sportsbooks. The partnership is the first of its kind for a major U.S. sports league.

This is all about promoting in-game betting

We're in the third quarter—will Kyrie Irving make his next free throw? It's halftime—do you want to bet the "over," now bumped up 15 points given that high-scoring first half? This type of live gambling requires fast and reliable data transmission, which is at the crux of the NBA's new partnerships.

Zoom out: NBA Commissioner Adam Silver wants the league to earn a cut from wagers on its games, but that's going to require legislative action.

So...selling proprietary data might be the next best way to make a buck on the growing trend of live betting. Need proof? In the U.K., more money is bet during a match than before it.

BIZ LANDMARKS

Where Did She Go?

On our way to work Wednesday morning down here in NYC's Financial District, we noticed something was a little off. The "Fearless Girl" statue that had been facing down the iconic "Charging Bull" was...gone.

Seconds before we went full Da Vinci Code, we remembered: The statue, commissioned by State Street Global Advisors to promote female empowerment in corporate America, is being moved a few hundred yards away to the New York Stock Exchange.

But the bull will face another challenger: You. What's left behind is a round plaque and two footprints where the "Fearless Girl" stood. State Street encourages you to stand in her place.

From the Crew: We actually do pass by these landmarks every day, and it's amazing to see the mass of people waiting in long lines to snap selfies. It's gotten so crazy, city officials plan on moving the bull, too, because of traffic and safety issues.

WHAT ELSE IS BREWING

• Altria (+2.16%), the maker of Marlboro cigarettes, is reportedly in talks to take a significant minority stake in Juul Labs, per the WSJ.
• CVS (+0.91%) has closed its $69 billion merger with health insurer Aetna (+0.46%). Here's our write-up of the deal if you want to learn how it might shake up the industry.
• Facebook (+1.30%) reportedly considered charging companies for access to its user data several years ago, according to the WSJ's review of an unredacted court doc.
• Ford (+1.40%) is reshuffling some of its plants to make more SUVs and pickup trucks—but no pulling a GM here. Ford's not cutting any jobs.
• Tiffany's (-11.82%) earnings disappointed investors. Weak demand from Chinese tourists in the U.S. and Hong Kong dampened Q3 sales.

BREAKROOM

From the Crew
How's this for an in-game in-newsletter bet? Both Apple and Microsoft are neck-in-neck for the title of the most valuable public company. We know Apple's already been at a $1 trillion market cap...but which firm will be the next one to get to $1 trillion? Microsoft? Apple again? Someone else entirely? Vote here.

Name Quiz
BabyCenter released the most popular baby names of 2018 (sadly, neither "Morning" nor "Brew" made an appearance). We're going to give you four boys names and four girls names. Your job is to rank them in terms of popularity. Ready? Let's go.

• Girls: Charlie, Sophia, Paisley, Sarah
• Boys: Jackson, Lincoln, Daniel, Caden

(Answer located at bottom of newsletter)

Breakroom Answers