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in down years many banks like to hire almost entirely from their SA class as they have a 10 week work sample and are a known quantity to the bank. From what I understand there was a lot more FT recruiting in the 2003-2007 boom, but that has all but vanished now that most banks are struggling. There is still FT recruiting, but it is extremely small when compared to SA recruiting. Additionally, most of these FT spots go to people who HAD a SA spot at a major bank and are looking to jump ship to another bank, so these spots are filled before you even know they exist (since they are done via accelerated process at the end of the summer)

The good news is that there is life outside the bulge-bracket and you can get a job at a good MM.

You will see it peak again in 2-4 years.

Nothing is ever certain. You have a great advantage for getting a SA position but its not like it used to be anymore. MY advice would be to have a positive and good attitude through your summer position, try to connect with as many VP/MD's in your office as possible and try to get on as many deals as possible. Don't be the SA who is obviously trying to suck up, but make sure you stand out. Thats really all you can do...if anything, the relationships you make can be used to help finding a FT offer elsewhere.