Depreciation & Capex

Is there a flaw in forecasting CapEx to be equal to (depreciation + Scheduled expansion projects) ? I know CapEx = D&A for normalization, but its such a pain in the ass forecasting CapEx as a step when an asset is fully (close to fully) depreciated.

Its all PP&E which has to be replaced. So instead of in year 10, spending 10M on new equipment, it'll just be distributed along the course of the initial assets life. The issue is, technically Id be treating it like an asset which just requires an overhaul every year to add another year to its life, like a floating oil rig for example or a nuclear reactor. Its not replaced every 10 years, it just gets incremental capital investment to keep it functional. But my PP&E is Buy-Depreciate-Retire&replace equipment.

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