Information below reflects data points from MS/ML/JPM/LEH/CS:
-Offer rates are between 30% and 80% - some banks that have had historically high, 90%+ offer rates are now below the 50% threshold. -FT recruiting budget has been slashed to hell. Most banks have the FT class already set, minus one or two warm bodies. At least three of the aforementioned banks are not even visiting schools such as Duke next year. -Q4 07 GDP growth was recently revised to reflect negative growth; Q1 08 was revised downward as well, and will likely be reanalyzed in the coming months. Very likely that we are in a recession, possibly headed for depression. -many banks' senior economists do not believe that the effects of the credit crisis will alleviate by summer 09. -if you're looking for, but don't already have, a FT BB IBD offer, you're pretty much screwed.
thanks buddy ... your optimism is really appreciated
Not smart enough to know statistics mean nothing to the individual. You'll either get an interview, make them want you, and get an offer, or you won't and become a number. Simple as that.
Sounds like some serious denial... be thankful he's putting this out there.
It would be interesting to see the offer rate numbers pegged to specific banks listed.
For example, the 30% offer rate is attributed to which firm, etc.?
Also, it would be interesting to know OP's source(s)? I hope the answer isn't (is) bend over...
At least one of those banks that you mention as a data point has not yet wrapped up their summer class. Would like to see a breakout if you have some numbers.
I know Lehman and Merrill are done...
I believe Morgan Stanley finishes this Friday, correct?
People were posting the same stuff last year, and yet I watched plenty of people receive multiple BB offers. The original post doesn't mean you won't land a FT BB offer, and it doesn't actually mean you are screwed. It just means most people, on average, will have difficulty landing jobs (and says nothing about individuals). Never thought posts like that were particularly useful, but whatever.
...not smart enough to realize that individuals make up the statistics...
Misunderstanding. Didn't mean to say you weren't too smart. Just anyone that uses these stats as a proxy for whether they should be applying. But you are wrong. I'm talking about outliers. So even if the average applicant is "screwed" as you so meticulously quantified it, it doesn't change the important things that bring in these outliers. Strong resume, networking your ass with alumni, and making sure you get in for an interview. Once you have an interview they are considering hiring you, and it is your responsibility to impress them. There is no influence of statistics. They still will only hire the people that really impress them, as there are always enough applicants that they can be picky.
Someone else mentioned these kind of posts were all over the place last year. However, I think idle speculation is a pretty foolish endeavor. All you're doing is churning the gossip mill. Stick to what you know firsthand and save the floating rumors. Just my opinion. Perhaps others like to frantically jump in glee or sulk down on just rumors.
b2 isn't being pessimistic ... it's going to get worse before it gets better. all the signs point downward, there's no getting around it
Any person who goes to a top 20 University is already in the top 1% in the world. Naturally, they are used to being at the top and outperforming statistics. Guess what, bud; when you're pitted against other top one percentiles, your chances aren't any better.
Everything that I've posted I know firsthand.
it is impossible to know even the hiring percentage at your own bank first hand. i had a meal with my group head the other day who said even he doesn't know the percentages. All we can do is gather as many data points as we can and try to come up with an estimate.
Yes, I understand that right about the time we get our estimate correct, the summer will be over and we will know who did/didn't get offers.
Relax a little bit man and just try to look at this from a 35,000 foot view. There is no right or wrong answer. Some answers are a little more defendable than others. Yours seem to be fairly defendable... great. Another, data point to help figure things out.
My MD flat out told me how many people in my class got offers. It was roughly half. This is substantially lower then the number of offers that were handed out last year. For those people who do not have a FT offer in hand I would stop reading this post and start trying to make some serious strides with your alumni pool or people you know on the street because it’s going to be ugly this fall.
So what about people who aren't SAs this summer, but are still interested in FT jobs in the fall? Banking's not my first choice, but I figured I would at least do some interviews. I'm working for a tech company this summer, have very good stats (GPA almost 4.0, good leadership, etc.), but have no finance experience.
I know it's hard enough for people without an internship to find a FT offer. And given the job market today, it might even be impossible. But will people like me basically be screwed?
In a normal market, since you go to Duke, I would say you might have chance...but honestly this FT season is going to be a shitshow with some banks perhaps not even showing up on-campus (i.e.as usual, LEH for sure and JPM I suspect) or showing up with no intentions of hiring, but merely to maintain relationships....
In my opinion, networking is your best option...but I don't know...this market is honestly god-awful.
Yeah. I'll probably just be very forward with recruiters at the career fair in the fall, and try to feel out what the chances are given the job market.
what do you all think the chances are for a candidate who attends a top ivy (think harvard/princeton) with an average GPA and a strong MM private equity internship this summer landing a bulge bracket FT IBD or S&T gig this fall?
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