I got a full time offer for IB at a BB in New York a couple of months ago and have gotten a little concerned about the H1b Visa process. I am a little confused since most sources say that success chances are around 30% yet, when I google my bank's h1b record, it seems they have a success rate of at least 95%.
Can someone with some experience tell me which number I should trust and whether BBs usually get all their people approved?
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Don't trust the number the google provides (h1b data, visainfo, etc.). It's not complete information.
The previous number was 30%, but that is only going to reduce in the next cycle and so on.
Thanks, but why would any firm hire me if there's a 70% chance of me not getting a Visa?
Well, first, they're taking a chance on you because they see potential in you. Second, only very resourceful firms can do this and can take the hit in there is a failure. Third, in case of failure, they'd put you in an international location or if that's not possible, they'll just let you go.
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This is not how the program works. There is a lottery so your sponsor doesn't matter, allocation is 100% random.
While the 30% number is correct for overall applications (and I agree that it's bound to come down), there are a number of visas reserved for citizens of certain countries (Singapore, Chile) or grad students so your chances of success improve dramatically if that's your case (+ Canadian and Mexican can get TN which are much easier to get and Australians also have a special program). Plus the banks can apply twice (April before you start and the following April if you have been unsuccessful) so it doubles your odds. And people who studied in STEM programs can get a 17 months OPT extension which gives another shot at the H1B (and it fully covers the 2-year analyst program anyway).
That being said, I have 2 friends at BBs who had to get transferred to London because they didn't manage to get a Visa before OPT expired so it doesn't always works.
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For the record, the TN Visa covers management consultants and economists but NOT bankers. If the employer fudges the job description to fit a profession covered by the TN however...
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If the H1b applications don't pass the lottery (30% chance), they are returned along with the application fee. So it doesn't count as an "application" and don't get recorded anywhere. What you are seeing with the 95% passing rate is out of those who passed the lottery already, which means you'll probably get the Visa as long as all the documents are in order, and have a proper job that meets the qualifications. So the "denials" already passed the lottery, but got denied due to some other circumstances.
The lottery system blows. However, global firms have no problem taking a risk on quality candidates, as these firms have the option of transferring you elsewhere if you don't win the lottery. They can always bring you back to the US later under a classification for management transfers, which has no cap. Either way, the firm would benefit from your employment in the US or another country.
No. Not this again. There's been like 300 different threads on H1B just this year.
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