Offer to a top group at CS. Consensus was it that exits from a group like this gets exits at MFPE/UMM PE. Worth rescinding offer to a weaker bank that MFPE/maybe UMM PE is off the table? or stick it out with CS or jump ship?
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Banks that go under don't exit to MFPE/UMM. Lateral now so you have something.
You think assuming they spin off or sold. Will top groups maintain those MF exits like historically CS Sponsors? This is interest if you imagine their top groups are sold to US Bank Capital One or a truist etc
What you're also overlooking is the fact if you don't complete your 2-years in IB, your PE offer will most likely get pulled. I had a friend who quit IB a little too prematurely (18-19 months) and did nothing, only later to find out the MF pull their offer because "he didn't have enough experience"
CS may survive this, but when a company goes through severe organizational changes and restructuring there will be tons of layoffs across all levels, regardless of the scenario people are putting out. If you ever get fired, and don't make the mistake that 1st years will always be safe (SOOOO NOT THE CASE WHEN A COMPANY IS BEING BOUGHT OUT OR DOWNSIZED), your PE offer will be pulled unless you find another bank to lateral immediately and complete your 2-year IB requirement.
Is 2 year an exaggeration? I think I heard people that have done a 1 year and 8-9 months. I think anything lower than that starts to be risky
Too early to say. Let's see how things look at end of year. Not looking good though. Do you have offer on the table from another firm right now?
Yes... let the OP take that risk and wait it out... so that once things finally become official, he/she can finally apply for lateral alongside thousands of other kids at CS.... during an off-cycle...
I was just saying it's too early to say if CS is completely going under. I didn't say that OP shouldn't look elsewhere. In fact, in the other thread, I literally said to consider Jeff and other solid banks still recruiting for FT. I'm not gonna recommend OP renege on CS with a no name boutique though. It's very possible they just spin off US IB and OP still has a job, but it's no longer with the CS name. You think OP should renege on CS without a reputable offer from another bank?
Not to be a dick, but are you an intern? I’m asking, not being rhetorical.
Incoming analyst but yeah I was intern this summer. Why? Like I said, my too early to tell was in regards to CS going completely under. If OP can get an offer at a solid bank like Jeff, I'd renege on CS. If they have no offers on the table or it's a no name boutique, I'm not sure if it's worth it
Are you currently holding an offer from a weaker bank or is this hypothetical?
I would take some lower BBs or top MMs over CS right now, but you have to get those offers... FT in October is a tough place.
I think the most likely thing that happens here is CS gets some rescue financing or bailed out by the Swiss government, pares down its risk exposure and restructures a bit. Governments are not going to let a huge SIFI just collapse. Top groups are not that high on the chopping block and incoming analysts are not likely to get cut. I would stick with CS, I don't think UMM/MF is totally off the table as you think it is - and going to a way smaller bank only makes it 100% sure it is off the table.
meant that the top group at CS has MF/UMM chances but if I was to go to a lower bb or top MM then its definitely off the table. Which how late in the recruiting cycle it is, most banks have already wrapped up like JPM (rumors was it wrapped) and that would only mean going to a weaker bank that may still be recruiting
Got it. My BB (not JPM) has been wrapped for a while, and any straggler BBs are probably heading towards final superdays for a last spot or two - kind of impossible to network in this late. I think you'd be hard-pressed to find a BB or solid MM spot.
Others may have different opinions but I think CS top group is way better than any of your realistic alternatives. Just try to stay away from the Twitter threads for now.
I’d be looking to jump ship - being at a sinking ship as an analyst isn’t good because your fate is entirely out of your control. Maybe your group gets bought or spun out and headcount is cut in half, or there’s a government bailout and it puts limitations on IB activity. No one here knows, but there’s clearly risk involved and I’m sure its a stressful place to be at the moment.
Other risk is seniors start leaving - no idea why any good MD would stay at CS right now, and I’m sure other banks are licking their chops to start bringing in CS rainmakers. Good seniors leaving means deal flow completely evaporates.
The big issue is that (and I’m not saying this is likely, but it’s possible) a large number of analysts are let go, lateraling will be incredibly difficult. It’s a tough market as is and hundreds of CS analysts looking for jobs will make things impossible. You want to start having those conversations before it’s too late.
There's a risk of reneging and losing both offers but in this case would other banks be more understanding of your choices. PE oncycle is so early that you just have the brand name when you start interviewing
nobody would blame a first year analyst for going somewhere more stable - especially with houston / oil and gas volatility mixed in
What bout NY
CS is a joke in Houston no one will care
CS did the largest energy M&A deal this year (Colgate-Centennial) and another big deal with Sitio-Brigham. Say what you want about CS's balance sheet problems but this just isn't true.
Why are people even entertaining this kid? It's already Oct and the kid's got no option but to go to CS and wait and see what happens to the bank.
There's no bank hiring right now. Kids at CS or incoming class who were concerned about this already lateraled or rescinded their offers and went to other banks.
ouch hard truth
.
which ones?
"start" interviewing? I don't know what rumors you're listening to... people spew all sorts of crap on WSO that's not true. but no BBs are starting FT hiring in October
OP should have been asking this question months ago.......
I don’t blame OP, I didn’t think it was gonna be this bad until this past week with stacking news
That's literally what being late means
Waiting until there's not a single person who hasn't heard about it
whos that
Sad to see this but I agree with what others have said. It would be unwise to do nothing and just wait. I had many friends at CS across all ranks (AN-VP) and they've all left and went to other banks this year. I heard that the new MDs they've brought in are almost entirely from much smaller lower tier banks, and they have almost no experience doing deals in the $500M-$B+ space, so deal flow would likely be terrible for 1-2 years at least.
Will this affect exit opps from historically strong groups at CS? Will HH ignore recent news and give you those MF interviews or…
Reputation should be enough to get you MF interviews, wouldn't worry about that. I'm more worried about headcount reductions / offers getting pulled
No getting an interview won't be a problem. But like what others have already said, if you get laid off before you finish your 2-year stint most PE shops will pull their offers. (Read: once they find out you haven't completed your time while conducting background checks) If you're already passed say 15-18 months mark as an AN, your PE offer will be fine. But if you're just starting out or incoming, this is a real risk that you should consider if PE is in your horizon.
Former CS analyst - this is wildly off - CS blew the bank on heavy hitter MDs to replace the ones who left. Most groups got new MDs from the likes of CVP, Moelis, MS, etc. What groups are really missing now are the experienced mid-level VPs and DIRs tbh who all jumped ship to pay raises and promotions after Archegos when the market was still super hot
The hell are you talking about? Our group like many other lost more than half the MDs this year and the new ones they've brought in are from LMM banks nobody's ever even heard of. Our group usually works with 1-2 other groups on deals so I know this is the case for those teams as well. I do know of 1 MD they signed from an EB, but he was a director there, and CS gave him promotion to jump ship. Are you even a real PE associate or just some kid with an SA offer at CS. You're commenting on every single CS posts, don't you have real work to do?
i posted this as a poll on our linkedin
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