With CS going down there may be space for a new BB over the next 5-7 years - could come through an MM growing or EBs expanding into S&T, ER, AM etc (much less likely imo)
Any bets on the next BB? I would bet a European bank personally
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FT Partners. Already an EB, why not BB. Also, 140k base btw.
Santander
RBC
Wells makes the most sense
I’d say RBC or Jefferies. RBC looks a lot more like the BBs of today where as jefferies probably looks like a BB in the 80s - pure play investment bank.
To be reminded. Sales and trading are as much investment banking as the corporate finance roles of M&A and coverage offerings are Investment Banking.
Wells Fargo!
Jefferies, RBC or HL
HL doesn't have the balance sheet or extensive S&T presence to be considered IMO. Even Jefferies is lacking on the WM / AM side of things most of the other bulges leverage.
Wells and RBC make the most sense for me too. I think Wells' advisory is a bit dysfunctional however, so RBC probably is my #1 pick.
Mizuho/Greenhill
Wells Fargo without a doubt, balance sheet is there. once asset caps gets lifted that should help
recent hires are also tremendous
They've done well with Greentech, but are too far down the league tables, especially in the US where so much IB gets done, at this point. Even in Asia (outside of Japan of course) I don't see them as a top-rated player. They've also been exiting a few offices (e.g. South Africa, Middle East).
On the other hand, well-developed S&T and Wealth Management, and a big balance sheet (albeit cost of fixing JPY/USD or JPY/EUR makes them a bit more expensive).
To be seen
Work at RBC - unlikely that it will become a 'bulge' largely because RBC doesn't want to massively grow its capital markets division relative to the rest of the bank. It's a highly stable oligopoly with the majority of its business being consumer lending in Canada. Allowing capital markets to become a bigger and bigger share has all kind of knock on effects that make it unpalatable for RBC management / shareholders. RBC is content gaining incremental market share (which it usually does in downturns like right now) and increasing revenue / head.
This question is premised upon the idea that there will be MORE market entrants into the Global BB investment banking subsector.
I would argue the premise is wrong entirely. If anything, additional banks will consolidate, blow up, have market share stolen, fall behind the other giants, etc. and market share will further consolidate. Thus I would expect non-BBs to continue to realize a greater disparity in global market share between themselves and the BB Giants in the future.
From what I hear, unlike every other bank, Lehman Brothers can’t go any lower, so only upside.