With CS going down there may be space for a new BB over the next 5-7 years - could come through an MM growing or EBs expanding into S&T, ER, AM etc (much less likely imo)
Any bets on the next BB? I would bet a European bank personally
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FT Partners. Already an EB, why not BB. Also, 140k base btw.
They do need to first start an S&T, AM division and increase presence drastically
all that doesn’t matter when FT has a 140k base. FT Partners is paradise
Santander
Not even close
Decent shout with all the growth tbh, they do have the balance sheet to do it but maybe not in the next 5 years. They lack the US presence but are strong in Europe
RBC
Wells makes the most sense
Yah. It has always been wells. For the last 15 years. But Lizzie hates them.
I’d say RBC or Jefferies. RBC looks a lot more like the BBs of today where as jefferies probably looks like a BB in the 80s - pure play investment bank.
To be reminded. Sales and trading are as much investment banking as the corporate finance roles of M&A and coverage offerings are Investment Banking.
Wells Fargo!
Jefferies, RBC or HL
HL doesn't have the balance sheet or extensive S&T presence to be considered IMO. Even Jefferies is lacking on the WM / AM side of things most of the other bulges leverage.
Wells and RBC make the most sense for me too. I think Wells' advisory is a bit dysfunctional however, so RBC probably is my #1 pick.
Mizuho/Greenhill
Wells Fargo without a doubt, balance sheet is there. once asset caps gets lifted that should help
recent hires are also tremendous
Doesn’t seem likely, if you think about the history behind the current BBs they are all decades old. Doesn’t seem likely any new ones would come in. RBC has basically no representation outside of Canada. Jefferies would be closest imo.
There's talk and banter of people mentioning Nomura, especially with their more aggressive expansion and bumped salaries. But am hearing it in Asia (in a place where CS is amongst the top for deals), not sure if it has a good rep in western countries though.
They've done well with Greentech, but are too far down the league tables, especially in the US where so much IB gets done, at this point. Even in Asia (outside of Japan of course) I don't see them as a top-rated player. They've also been exiting a few offices (e.g. South Africa, Middle East).
On the other hand, well-developed S&T and Wealth Management, and a big balance sheet (albeit cost of fixing JPY/USD or JPY/EUR makes them a bit more expensive).
To be seen
Apple
Jefferies / RBC
WB a sleeper?
Too much focus on US-based M&A / capital markets in the other comments, Wells is absolutely nowhere in Europe or Asia.
If talking about banks with decent IB and S&T across multiple regions, along with at least a presence in ER and AM, it can only really be RBC, BNP Paribas or HSBC (though HSBC seems to be on a downward trend). Agree with Jefferies as well (though weak / non-existent in AM).
You may not use ur apple-id as a username, just in case...
Work at RBC - unlikely that it will become a 'bulge' largely because RBC doesn't want to massively grow its capital markets division relative to the rest of the bank. It's a highly stable oligopoly with the majority of its business being consumer lending in Canada. Allowing capital markets to become a bigger and bigger share has all kind of knock on effects that make it unpalatable for RBC management / shareholders. RBC is content gaining incremental market share (which it usually does in downturns like right now) and increasing revenue / head.
Are these weaknesses? I do think RBC has better odds compared to most.
What I see is a strong defensive moat against the threat of new entrants that gives them a fairly stable and conservative position in retail. They can afford to consolidate smaller regional players in times of strong economic headwinds. They are likely too big to fail at this point. If I was management I would be waiting for the next major downturn to buy an investment bank instead of investing in building that infrastructure myself. This does not diminish your perspective because I do think the greater Canadian markets are facing several challenges that will be constraints for the firm but it is something I think many people have in mind.
IMO I would rather own a boring bank with incremental growth if I thought the near term (5-10 years) might be a period of sustained issues with economic growth but that is for a different topic...
Well I've worked at RBC for over 5 years so I don't think it's a weakness but as with everything, there are puts and takes. Certainly glad to have my deferred comp tied to RBC stock vs almost any other bank
This question is premised upon the idea that there will be MORE market entrants into the Global BB investment banking subsector.
I would argue the premise is wrong entirely. If anything, additional banks will consolidate, blow up, have market share stolen, fall behind the other giants, etc. and market share will further consolidate. Thus I would expect non-BBs to continue to realize a greater disparity in global market share between themselves and the BB Giants in the future.
Truist lol
Are you being serious?
Honestly a sleeper.
X
Is BNP ahead of Credit Agricole or SocGen?
On the European continent by far, enormous balance sheet and if you look at debt league tables top performer, okayish in the ECM/M&A side in Europe but strong in France. Strong securitisation bank globally if I recall correctly, but still lacking very much outside of Europe in terms of overal IB presence
BNP are excellent in Europe, especially since COVID. However, they’re very weak in the US so it’s hard to see how they can be a potential BB when they’re a nobody in the most profitable market for IB.
Wells or RBC
Del
Citizens
Whoever uses AI to get faster in origination I think
Deutsche
From what I hear, unlike every other bank, Lehman Brothers can’t go any lower, so only upside.
Wedbush
Barclays?
Are you insane
Right now RBC, Jefferies, and BNP are the closest thing to a BB, but given the strategy put in place at WF, their strong momentum and the hires at senior level, WF will probably get their status as BB once they get their asset cap lifted and they upsize a little bit their business in Europe.
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