Overall White Collar Job Market, Good or Bad?
This question is meant to be general. I'm sure your answers be more focused on the industry you know, e.g. PE, IB, Consulting, F500, VC or whatever it might be. Which is fine.
Trying to get a sense of how strong the general job market is for the broad class of people that frequent this site: strong college degree or MBA, mid-to-late 20s or 30s. Typical finance/consulting/corporate type of person.
My sense of things is that 2021 was a boom year for this group. Whether you were a banker, lawyer, consultant or whatever . . if you were a white collar Type A, you were getting job offers left and right and your employer was doing anything possible to keep you.
2022 was strong but down a bit from 2021. 2023 I feel started with a lot of fear and disappointing end-of-2022 bonuses and that fear continued into the summer and fall. "Party's over" type of feeling.
But Q4 '23 felt mixed and confusing to me. I heard some good and bad. Some friends laid off, others landing good jobs. Some negativity in consumer data, some positivity in Fed expectations, etc etc. Mixed bag.
What's your sense of things? Do employers or employees have the leverage right now in these sectors? Appreciate any thoughts!
Whole WSJ article recently on how it’s tough for MBA grads right now. Recommend reading that
2nd this. We pretty much heard this from our HR people who manage relationships with MBA programs. Better IB applicants this year due to significantly less opportunities for other high profile roles (consulting, VC, mega-tech companies etc.)
Thanks for the heads up on the WSJ article. I just read it. Chalk one up in the "market is bad" column. That column makes more sense to me in terms of my gut level feel on the economy. Post-Covid boom felt like a white collar bubble, and some pullback made sense.
The counter is, a lot of my personal data points (friends and coworkers) still suggest people are confident about their prospects. This is bonus season for many people I know and the mood has been consistent: people are unhappy with their bonuses/raises and are puffing their chest that they have other options and will be working on their resumes. "I guess I'll be calling those recruiters back now" is something I've heard a lot this week.
And their employer will call their bluff bc there's nothing worthwhile out there, generally speaking. Or the employer may not even care if they walk to begin with
That article is honestly a bunch of BS. I'm at a T25 and although I'm still job searching as a 2nd year, I have an idea how the Class of 2023 is doing. 95% of the class was signed with a job / started a job within 5-6 months of graduating (and many of those who landed jobs around 5-6 months out were legitimate post MBA outcomes - one on the buyside as an associate, one at an operational mid-level senior role within a small real estate investment fund, and an international who landed a 'decent' 6 figure IT consulting role at a respectable firm). The remaining people are going for very particular niches or spread themselves too thin (applied too broadly and even as 2nd year MBA students, seemed very unsure of what they wanted to do). A lot of the people still looking are doing part-time contract white collar work so they're still making a bit of money.
I honestly read the article and couldn't help but laugh at the Yale MBA who was struggling getting a role in sustainability (such a niche role that probably has very few new job postings weekly).
Considering I'm trying to go into healthcare, I'm not too worried. I don't think I'll land a role by graduation but something within 3-6 months. A lot of firms out there doing quiet layoffs / internal restructurings.
Heard from recruiters that analyst hiring is expected to pick up this year. Are you asking this because you’re interested in looking for new jobs or out of curiosity?
Thanks for the comment. To answer your question: I posted because I'd been recently hearing comments like yours in my personal life (friends and current/former colleagues) several times in the last week or two. Many people leaving comp conversations telling me they're angry their bonus/raise wasn't bigger and they've been blowing off recruiters and now want to call those recruiters back.
So I'm seeing data points on both sides.
On the negative side:
- A couple commenters mentioned a WSJ article that I just read, saying MBA students are struggling
- The comp conversations I just mentioned: if your boss is paying you less than you wanted, its a sign that either business isn't great or the boss has his own finger on the pulse of the job market and thinks he can get away with paying you less
On the positive side:
- Recruiters tend to be a decent leading indicator and if they're seeing opportunities that's something
Spoke to a recruiter yesterday, (been laid off since October). They said Q1 looks like it’s been the worst Q1 for employers reaching out in a while, and has started to see quite a bit pick up in regards to candidates reaching out so her firm definitely feels the market is skewed heavily in favor of employers. Employers are being very stringent in salary expectations and sticking hard to the qualifications for role with little wiggle room on either. It’s just one recruiters perspective, but I can’t say it seems off from what I’ve heard elsewhere and my own personal experience.
Shit sandwich, specifically for IB junior roles
If you're paying close attention, white collar layoffs are happening by the hour. I don't care what the unemployment rate is. It's only a matter of time before things start to go south, unless the Fed blinks and goes to 2% before any signs of true stress appear.
Russell 2000 is still off ~20% from its high, meanwhile, S&P is being driven by money flows, 0DTE, etc. S&P500 is not the economy - it's the best of best public Co's with very minimal interest rate sensitivity.
+1 to this. Recently read a comment on another forum stating that 2008-2009 was the Great Financial Crisis. This time period sounds like the Great Layoffs. There are a lot of quiet layoffs happening within organizations that you will not hear about. I feel everyday this past 2 weeks I've heard of a mass layoff that was publicly announced.
Seems right, I think I heard most new jobs in the economic data are government jobs, part time (people taking more than 1) or low wage restaurant / hospitality jobs.
Kinda crazy to me that the headline unemployment rate is so fuzzy (i.e. it excludes people who "aren't looking for work").
Makes more sense to me that the official unemployment rate would be more raw: like anyone who's working age and doesn't have a job, is unemployed. And then if some economist wants to publish a more nuanced rate that filters out people "not looking for work" then let them do that.
Kinda feels like we're headed straight for the European way of life where everyone tries to work less and the economy goes nowhere. If that way of life is sustainable at all, it's only because other countries like the US carry the load. If the US goes that way too, forget about it.
Eh even with non 0% interest rates being prevalent after this downturn recovery, I think the European take is a bit extreme. This economy is nowhere near as bad as 2008-2009 IMO. I think today's economy is a bit reminiscent of 2010-2011. Economy didn't really start showing improvements until 2013. I don't think we'll have an economy that mirrors years like 2019 or 2021 anytime in this decade though.
I've also seen a handful of millennials take career breaks especially friends of high school who pursued white collar type jobs. Burnout is definitely a real thing and there are people out there deciding not to participate in the labor market for awhile.
were you the same guy who sold QQQ in October 2022
Also, says the guy who works in DCM. Can't expect any optimistic remarks from you
I always stay invested in the indexes no matter how bearish I am (with a decent amount of Tbills as well, ofc).
We'll see, but I think you can agree that large white collar layoffs being announced left and right isn't exactly bullish, combined with those people having a very hard time finding a new job.
Undergrad perspective here: typically ~60% have business/finance jobs by the end of the fall semester and according to the career center, it's more like 40% this year. Maybe they are just saying that to make me feel better.
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